The Cheltenham Gold Cup 2019

In a way frodon reminds me of imperial commander I never backed him when he won the gold cup having backed him in all his previous victories. I was frightened off by the opposition. I see frodon going off in front jumping soundly and burning them off.one or two might go with him but finding not enough up the hill.thats the vision I have and Bryony wins spoty. There’s a double for you.

 

Trainer came out and said horse didn't like the ground and still finished 6th. If it is good or good to soft and with ground not tacky I think Definitly Red has a big chance. Jockey Danny Cook is having a pretty good season too so far.

 

can’t be many horses that like running in glue ! heavy ground if it’s sloppy isn’t as testing as the drying tacky stuff , DR definitely prefers a less taxing surface , probably like most in the field , only the grinders like Native River thrive on taxing conditions .....

 

Its a bit harsh to call Native River a "grinder" mate. He has won some very good races on good to soft including the Mildmay. He does cope with very soft conditions better than most though!

 

ok , top class grinder !

 

I hope Native River wins on Saturday at Newbury and puts Clan Des Obeaux in his place. It would be good for the gold cup as the media will then jump on fact it was race he won last year before going on to gold cup glory. We 'll have all the hype then that the double is on and it will just add to the build up and excitement...

 

Native River didn't last very long at Evens for Saturday's race. Clan Des Obeaux seems weak at a general 13/8.

The odds either indicate the Nicholls horse is less likely to show up, or they contradict the perceived notion that Clan Des Obeaux was the new kid on the block, whereas Native River left his career at Cheltenham in last year's Gold Cup.

The ground is currently soft and the Met Office Forecast for Newbury stated "Windy with gales, locally severe, and heavy rain Friday."

The theory will be that Native River would enjoy a bog more but I wouldn't want my horse to be having a hard slog prior to Cheltenham.

For me the King George was questionable because Might Bite stank, Native River was clearly tapped for speed and Bristol De Mai fell and took Waiting Patiently out. Clan Des Obeaux has time on his side but just a bit to prove yet as a Gold Cup horse for me. If Native River cannot reverse King George form on testing ground, his hopes of defending his title will look holed below the waterline. Let's hope they clash and we get a better handle on the big one.

 

I think Mr Mullins wait to win this race will continue,dont think Bellshill is good enough, might be a year to soon for ABP, Kemboy is a horrific price.

 

On the subject of Waiting Patiently when will we see this horse again? It doesn't sound like he will run at Cheltenham and what happens if through March and April we have a very dry 8 weeks. That will be it for him then just the King George effort. What happens if his intended next target at Ascot the going is only good?

I m sorry but they really are wrapping this horse up in cotton wool a little too much as this season could be just one complete write off!

 

Update update : He COULD run on Saturday in the reopened game spirit chase. Trainer apparently said she would not run him over 2 miles but now it seems it might be on the cards if going is anywhere near heavy. I find this moly coddling of this horse quite frustrating. If he is this alleged super horse surely really good superstars can go on any ground. Hopefully one day we 'll get to see how good he is..

 

Bellshill has never done it at the festival and it was a muddling race that didnt really suit RTR, possibly the cause for his below average jumping, id make RTR about 1/5 to finish in front of him at Cheltenham.

 

So Percy isn't Presenting tomorrow either, strange aul prep and I can't be having him for the big one

 

It would be an almighty training performance to win a Gold Cup with one prep race over hurdles.Pat Kelly knows him onions and will have him well schooled but he's just to short in price for my liking.

 

Swap the prices on the day, who do you back? NR/CDO 3/1 PP 9/2? Is price and potential more important than a proper prep and visually impressive, Interesting dilemma?

 

Hmm - Blacklion is 100/1 on bet365. Quite tempting because if he runs he's definitely got a decent place chance. Just wish they'd gone down the CGC route in 2017 rather than the Grand national....

 

Thank goodness I chose 2019 as my opt out year from my scattergun approach to the Cheltenham Gold Cup.

If I was going to have a single punt it would be Native River with Colin Tizzard's stable seemingly in very good form at the moment; hope my willpower survives!