As usual, the 2019 festival will commence with the Supreme Novices Hurdle and that famous, guttural roar as the runners are sent on their way. The race was originally called the Gloucestershire Hurdle, and it used to be split into two or three separate divisions. The Irish trainer Vincent O'Brien recorded ten victories in the race during an eight-year spell in the 1950s. In recent times, the most successful trainer and rider have been the incomparable Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Run on the Old Course over a distance of about 2 miles and 110 yards, there are eight hurdles to be jumped and swift, accurate hurdling is essential in order to hold a good position coming down the hill. The final uphill climb to the finish demands the ability to really see out the trip. The race is a graveyard for the previous season’s Champion Bumper winner (Dunguib and Cue Card being recent examples who were backed off the boards but failed to win) and Champagne Fever is the only horse this century to win the Champion Bumper and the following year's Supreme. With the 2018 Champion Bumper form looking decidedly average, it would be no great surprise to see that trend continue. The 2019 race has received a massive 98 initial entries and, as in every year, there is much doubt and speculation over which novice hurdler will run in which race at the festival. Vying for favouritism at the moment are Finesse winner Fakir D'Oudaries (who as a 4YO would receive 8lbs from his elders in this) and Nicky Henderson's Angel's Breath, who won the Kennel Gate but the trainer thinks he is over-rated. I would tend to agree. I much prefer the chances of another Henderson runner, Mister Fisher, who won well at Kempton on Boxing Day and then followed up with a fluent success at Haydock. He would need to improve to take this but surely can and he reminds me a little bit of Altior at the same stage of his career - we shall see. No Mullins hotpot this year, with Klassical Dream currently the shortest-priced of his plethora of entries at around the 8/1 mark. He just touched off stablemate Amron in the Grade 1 at Leopardstown's February festival but he made hard work of it and I think he may end up a little short of what is required here. Al Dancer runs in the Betfair Hurdle and will jump to the head of the market if he can win that off 141 whilst Elixir De Nutz is highly respected after 2 course victories and a real gutsy win at Sandown on testing ground. I'll wait for the day of the race for a likely punt on Mr Fisher (assuming he runs) although we will have to see what turns up from Ireland.
Has anyone done the honours and crossed out all those unfavoured by the stats and highlighted those most favoured by the stats?
I did Aramon at 16/1 because he seemed to be improving and he has travelled well in his last few races. Deserted for a stablemate by Ruby Walsh last time he nearly embarrassed the jockey by only losing out in a head bobbing finish. I thought he might be one to cope with a good ground race and if he comes to the last still travelling well he could have a shout. Obviously some well regarded sorts in opposition and potential improvers in the mix but I am hopeful of a good run if the ground is not testing.
Crikey, nearly forgot the Fat Jockey Challenge for the Cheltenham Festival. Better see if I still have that knocking around
No sign of Angels Breath this weekend. He was entered on Fri, Sat and Sun but is no longer in any of them.
Well Al Dancer did win the Betfair Hurdle and did jump to the head of the market for the Supreme. He is now a best-priced 9/2 (4/1 NRNB). Another novice to beat his elders was Paul Nicholls' Grand Sancy, who took the Kingwell Hurdle in resolute fashion from Sceau Royal. Both performances probably somewhere in the low 150s yet Grand Sancy can still be backed at 16/1 for the Supreme. On Sunday Lieutenant Henderson's Heatstroke, owned by Mrs Fitri Hay and rated 87 on the flat, returned from nearly 2 years off the track with a thoroughly likable hurdles debut victory and has been nibbled at for the Supreme (33/1 from 50/1).
Al Dancer won well yesterday but dont winners of the betfair hurdle have a shocking record in this race?This looks a wide open race this year, could be a big priced winner like Labaik a few years ago.
beat Magic Dancer who ran to his best mark , so yes i think you’re right , he’s no good thing at cheltenham!
I think the faster pace and finish will suit Al Dancer, has impressed my auld eyes. So i will be saying in the words of Paul Gogarty f.u. stats.
For me, anything that beats Al Dancer in the Supreme is gonna have to be a beast. I thought the performance was very impressive on Saturday and then it was quite telling that Willie Twiston-Davies came out and said that he thought horse could be best they 've ever trained. Looks a real star in the making.
Probably said the same when Ballyandy won it too. I thought it was a very impressive performance off 141 but I’m worried about the true form given the 3rd home. The Supreme is a right old puzzle at the minute.
That horse doesn’t appeal to me at all, he looked one to take on last time out and in a Supreme I think he will find it too tough.
I'll admit he doesn't look a superstar but I don't think there is one in the field this year and I think he will improve for that last run.
Itchy Feet interests me the most at the 'bigger' prices. 33/1 with a win over Grand Sancy in the book that looks better after the weekend, and a defeat to Elixir De Nutz by 1.25L when he gave him 5 lbs also reads quite well considering what he's beaten since too. Olly Murphy has left him off this long by design, and isn't sending anything there for a day out... It's not my style to only have one horse in a race, but if I hadn't had a bet yet, with so many question marks at the top of the market, I'd have him near the top of my shortlist.
