After a string of second-placed bets in recent days I have decided to try a little experiment to see whether I can turn a regular profit by backing a single horse to place each day. The experiment will run for 1 week and I will strike one €10 place only bet on each of the 7 days, with no further bets allowed. The objective is to finish the week in profit, my "stretch target" would be to try and turn 30% profit on the €70 staked i.e. to finish the week with €91 or more. I am seriously interested in whether this method of betting can be used to show a long-term profit. I freely admit that my ability to select winner is not good enough to show a constant monthly profit and I doff my cap to anyone who can show that. As the nap tables maintained by Ron show, it isn't that easy!! I'll put selections up on this thread each day for the next week, and if anyone else wants to join in please feel free. Also if anyone has selection strategies for finding decently priced place returns I would be glad to hear them. For starters I will be looking for races of between 8-10 runners to ensure 3 places pay. I won't try and solve the 16+ runner handicaps to get a fourth place as I believe the risk outweighs the benefit of the additional place. I will be looking for horses whose SP I think will be somewhere between 6/4 and 3/1 (ish) as I am not interested in 1.02 tote place returns So here goes with the first selection: Thursday 8th September 2.45 Epsom - Money Never Sleeps (what an ironic choice I hear you say )
I'm a sucker for punishment Ron. You picked a horrible day to start mate. Doncaster. 16:40 Club Oceanic.
Are you sure you don't mean Tote Place Oddy? please log in to view this image please log in to view this image
Odddog i use place bets frequently at Woodbine, especialy on the turf track. It surprised Cyc some of the payouts.
I can't look at work, but this evening I want to investigate opening an online account with the Tote and doing tote place betting online. I'm sure it must be possible. Maybe there was method in his madness ................ Islander you often see a well backed, short-priced favourite (odds against at least) paying 1.30 - 1.50 tote place. The only problem with such limited returns is that you can't swallow many losers and remain in profit .................. Looking at the 2.55 Uttoxeter yesterday for example - Folk Tune won as 15/8F and The Fox's Decree was 2nd at 9/4 BUT Folk Tune paid 1.50 tote place and The Fox's Decree only 1.20. You therefore got 1/2 for a 15/8 FAV to place - amazing really!!
Cyc its a rainy day so off to the track this afternoon, Odd its to do with how they divvy up the tote wagers, normally 60% of the wagers goes to the fav
Odd last night at Woodbine the payouts for win and place were as fllows race 1 11.60 w 5.20 p race 2 5.30 w 4.00 p race 3 4.30 w 2.80 p race 4 17.10 w 6.80 p race 5 7.20 w 4.70 p race 6 7.30 w 3.00 p race 7 22.80 w 10.70 p race 8 13.60 w 7.70 p
Trouble is Oddy, unless my mental arithmetic has let me down in my old age, to turn in a 30% profit, assuming 1.50 return a place is going to require 6 winning bets out of 7 every week. Sounds difficult to me. Haven't done any calcs but I wonder if a staking plan like increase the stake by 10 each time, stop at a winner, might be more rewarding.
Yeah you could be right Ron ........................ I just saw the 1.50 from that race at Uttoxeter yesterday, I think I need to study typical tote place returns to try and understand what my minimum "strike rate" may have to be to remain in profit. I was looking at my September naps and they have gone something like 2-2-F-2-1-2-2. Just gonna check the tote place returns on my picks. This first week is now likely to be "just for fun" anyway as my bookie won't take the place only bets.
Here my naps in September with race position and tote place returns: 1. Russian War - 2nd - 1.10 2. Strident Force - 2nd - 1.70 3. Yahrab - Fell - 0.00 4. Winning Show - 2nd - 2.80 5. Cappagh - 1st - 2.30 6. Executive's Hall - 2nd - 1.10 7. Geneva Geyser - 2nd - 1.30 If I were doing my €10 per day stake that would give me €103 as of today, or a 47% profit. Be interesting to see if I can retain that kind of form.
Odd when you say place do you mean come first or second. Over here in Canada its a win , place and show Eg race 1 last night paid win 11.60 place 5.20 show 3.00 47% profit sounds good to me
I found it really hard to get a handle on things today Islander. I thought Breeze Bayou in the first, but with only 7 runners and only 2 places, it becomes a real worry. Handsup Moneydown the in 3rd and maybe first starter Vrouw Maria in the 6th. But I have no real confidence in any of them. Tread warily mate.
Islander - depends on how many runners but the basic principle is as follows (this example for an 8 runner race): If you back tote place, and the horse finished 1st, 2nd or 3rd, your get the tote place return. On the tote there is a win pool and a place pool for each race (we don't have the "show" in the UK). The tote pays out on the winning horse (win) and all the placed horses (1st, 2nd or 3rd). If there are less than 8 runners then the place covers only 1st or 2nd. Less than 5 and there is (I believe) only a win pool since there is no "place" with less than 5 runners. Generally handicaps with 16 or more runners pay 1,2,3,4 the place but as I said above the risk outweighs the opportunity of the 4th place. 8, 9 or 10 runner races paying the first 3 SHOULD in theory be relatively straightforward to find a placed horse, IF you pick the right race (i.e. NOT a 9 runner flat maiden with no previous runs to go on).
BTW typical returns for, let's say a 2/1 SP winner would be something like: Win: 3.00 (includes your 1.00 stake, so 2/1) Place: 1.30 (includes your 1.00 stake so 3/10)
thanks odd,basicaly your place bet is our show bet.Which does change the winnings greatly.I don't do show bets normally,unless i think a long odds horse has an outside chance Cyc no probs mate i will put a couple of $ to place on them
Don't you sometimes just think "F*ck my luck"? 5 second places on win bets this week and the first time I do a place selection he comes 4th. A close-up 4th, miles clear of the rest. Sometimes..............................
