3 I like the look of tomorrow 2.25 Mehdi 11/1 3.00 Sense of Purpose 3/1 NB 4.10 Five Star Junior 16/1 NAP 4.10 Doncaster Five Star Junior 16/1 Quite like the look of Linda Stubbs sole runner tomorrow in the shape of Five Star Junior. This heavily raced 5 year old gelding, with 50 races to date, has already notched up 14 runs this year and comes here after disappointing the last few times. Five Star Juniors career has seen him notch up 7 wins and 15 place efforts which is an impressive 44% rate of finishing in the money. Even still, the last few poor efforts are excusable and you don’t have to go far to find good efforts. Five Star Junior started out this year by embarking on an AW campaign and was in largely good form as he notched up 1 win and 3 places from 6 runs and was never far out of the frame. It is arguable that he is perhaps slightly better on the AW but I think it is still important to analyse the strength of these performances. These included narrow defeats to Edinburgh Knight and Anne of Kiev, who have won off higher turf marks subsequently. Five Star Junior holds an 8lb lower mark of 90 on the turf when compared to the AW, and his turf mark has dropped 5lb from his last effort after finishing 5.5L behind Secret Witness LTO, who re-opposes today off 7lb worse terms. Five Star Junior seemed outpaced over 5f early on before doing his best work in the closing stages but still was nowhere near close to getting to the winner. If Five Star Junior puts in the same performance as he did he won’t reverse the form but he generally tends to throw in a few shocking runs and finds form from nowhere so that isn’t too much of a concern to me with the step back to 6f a positive. Five Star Junior has posted 3 good runs this year on the turf: a 4L 4th behind Iver Bridge Lad off a mark of 94; a 1L 3rd to Fitz Flyer and a 1.25L 2nd behind Dinkum Diamond of todays mark of 90. Dinkum Diamond finished 5L behind subsequent Group 1 winner Margot Did before beating Five Star Junior, so that form doesn’t look to bad at all. Further to this, Five Star Junior won off a mark of 91 last year and performed well off a mark of 100 as a 3 year old so it is clear to me that he is definitely capable of winning off this mark. Even more encouraging is that Five Star Junior holds a Group 3 entry at the Curragh on Sunday so that demonstrates to me that Linda Stubbs feels her gelding is in fine form at home. Stubbs makes the long journey from North Yorkshire to Ffos Las for what is her only runner of the day and only her 2nd runner at the track ever. Her first runner Bronze Beau was unfancied on both form and in the betting but was very unlucky to lose in a photograph so to me this clearly indicates that she would not be making this long journey unless she fancied Five Star Junior to run a big race. Shane Kelly is a very interesting jockey booking and is the first time he rides for Stubbs this year. However, he has ridden for Five Star Junior 7 times in the past including 2 wins and 2 places so he clearly gets on well with him and rejoins his old companion for the first time since December 2009. I think this is very significant as it shows that Stubbs has booked a jockey who knows the horse but does not ride for her regularly as she is expected a strong performance. All in all I am expecting Five Star Junior to run a very good race and the 20/1 currently on offer seems very big to me. With all his best work on ground that is good any rain tomorrow would be a big negative. The Group 3 entry and the booking of Shane Kelly are big positives in my eyes, as is Linda Stubbs long journey with one runner where she was very close to having a 100% record. This looks a very open race tomorrow and I like the look of Piazzo San Pietro also and will have a saver on him as he has form with Lutine Bell who I rate a lot. The 2 Irish raiders definitely look threatening also and it is a really competitive heat. If Five Star Junior bounces back from a few poor efforts he is definitely weighted to run well for a yard that has been in the winners recently and I think this 5 year old gelding can definitely win this if back to his best. thats my last write up. no time to change it as im going out but five star junior ran a very nice race on soft ground and if it is good to firm I think he would have won. On a nice mark and if the ground stays good tomorrow I t hink he has a cracking chance
My pick tomorrow- 13.55 Doncaster - Alanza She well deserves her move in to group level- every race she has done nothing but improve and with a massive 7lb weight allowance she certainly is the one to beat but Seta is unbeaten over this trip but I think the improving Alanza will run away with this!
Alanza will win tomorrow. John Oxx doesn't come to England without a winning chance and 3/1 is.pretty massive knowing that. I think she's nailed on.
Hello lads. Agree with rounder and wooly. I've already stated earlier,and bagged the 7/2(max 3's now),that Alanza is my nap tomorrow and first wager of the week. No secret that I've been a huge fan of this filly for some time and tipped her up on her last two victories.She was classic mentioned after an impressive win at Listowel last backend on easy ground when coming from the clouds to win snugly. After a setback,she debuted for the 2011 campaign in a 6f L'town heat when Oxx and Murtagh should have been suspended for schooling in public.Her next effort was similar in nature where she was ridden hands and heels to close late,again over an inadeqaute 6f. She then won over a tight round mile at Cork,just getting up close home.Her last effort was again at a tight track where she made late ground to win easily over 7f. This straight 7f will play to her strengths,even though I think she will be better at a mile in time,and whilst SHC's filly is respected,I expect this improving filly to have too much fire power. As mentioned,3/1 is now the best available and that will disappear soon. GL all having a go tomorrow.
1.25 Doncaster: POETIC DANCER 10/1 e.w This is a trappy nursery and there are expected to be one or two big improvers. However, on paper I can't see where they are going to come from, and I feel Clive Cox's Poetic Dancer looks pretty fairly treated on what is some very solid form so far. 3rd on debut behind none other than the unbeaten Group winner BEST TERMS, he has since won a maiden of his own and ran on to be beaten less than 2 lengths in a hot Goodwood nursey won by Goldoni. John Fahy claims a useful 3lb and I would be hoping for a good run from this fella. 1.55 Doncaster- DEVER DREAM 7/1 If we are being frank about things, it is almost disgusting that this filly remains winless in 2011. She hs found ALL SORTS of trouble in running, most notably in Group Company at Glorious Goodwood when she ran on late, but also when given multiple stinking rides by Eddie Ahern at Pontefract LTO and at the beginning of the season. I will give their partnership another chance, and if she does finally have some good fortune and a clear passage, 7/1 looks the standout value in what is a very tricky race to call. The step up back to 7f will definitely suit and she should be staying on as well as anyone in the closing stages. 2.25- LADYS FIRST 10/1 / WHIMSICAL 25/1 e.w Lady's First- I get the impression she is one of the Fahey stables top two year olds given the way he has spoken about her, and he predicted a very bold showing on debut when seemingly winning with a bit to spare at York. She then looked a very unlucky loser in a class 2 conditions event at Chester, but finished in front of the likes of HIDDEN PASSION (rated 82), LUV U FORVER (rated 95), and BUBBLY BALLERINA (rated 84). Given how unlucky she was having stayed on strongly, you'd have to think that her mark of 86 understimates her a little bit and that in reality this is a filly with the ability to perform at 95+ if continuing the improvement. Completely unexposed still and has to have a good chance. Whimsical- Absolutely ridiculous price that is based purely on jockey bookings IMO. Improved no end when getting FIRDAWS in all sorts of trouble before going down late to finish 2 lengths second, and on that form alone Whimsical could be a horse rated in the 90s and therefore should be up with the market leaders on such form (if we rate Firdaws as highly as Roger Varian says) Interestingly, Richard Hughes chose this one over the impressive winner DREAMWRITER, and was well backed at 3/1 that day, so clearly the ability is known, and maybe Hughes has chosen the wrong one this time? Kieron O'Neil will give it his best shot and whilst inexperienced, he is an improving young jockey with a handy 3lb claim. She was well clear of some well bred horses that day and I suspect that form will look as good as any come this time next year. Looks to be underestimated off an absolute featherweight. 3.35 Doncaster: IMPERIAL ORDER 7/1 (NAP) A typically tricky maiden to assess, and no doubt Frankie's mount for Godolphin will be a warm order. However, Imperial Order shaped with promise when 7th of 17 in what already looks a fairly warm maiden (2 winners already), so with improvement on the cards for that run, he should set a tough standard to beat, especially upped to a mile having been keeping on over the 7f on debut. Interestingly, what isn't noted in the race description from debut is that the horse was keeping on nicely before getting severely hampered, and then had to run on again to take 7th. Ultimately the horse would have been a lot closer to the frame and at 7/1 I think is very much overpriced. Looked a scopey individual that day and there looked a touch of class, amidst a lot of greenness, and I am hoping for a really bold showing today.
Roto, good morning. Are we the only two idiots to be up at this ungodly hour? Thanks for your good write up. Difficult to find winners today, and the only one I fancy is Bogart- won well last time and may go in again. Best of luck with your selections.
Well done to Naas for Humidor yesterday and all who took his persuasive write up and backed the thing! Hopefully no others like me followed his 6 tips for Carlisle and didnt back Humidor! Just like the fixed odds theres always one that lets you down. Humidor.........if only.......!! Well thats racing!
Sorry to hear that Gaz. One for me today, as mentioned yesterday its Rex Imperator, and Charlton doesn't overface his juveniles. Even the geldings.
No worries naas, i bet a couple of quid to escape the boredom of work! Somedays I pick someones tips from here yesterday you were the tipster! My normal bet is just to pick 1st 3 paper favs at the biggest flat meeting! To top my day I bet Louis the Pious as Im a fan of Kevan Ryan only to get beat by his other horse! But as I say thats racing and this dog will have his day!
Morning, all. Very nice racing today and I will nominate: Cairncross (3.20 Epsom) - really, really and I do mean really, really, like this one today. Although still a maiden, after 3 attempts, Cairncross looks very well treated off 73 following placed efforts behind the useful pair of Paramour and Almagest. She looks most progressive and the drop back to a mile will definately suit after not quite getting home over 10 furlongs last time. Think she will break her duck this afternoon. Advanced (4.35 Doncaster) - being a sentimental fool I can't not include my old fave who is reunited with 'Frank' Spencer this afternoon (in days of yore they won the Ayr Gold Cup together). Should be more than competitive here off a perch of 90 as he has produced several decent efforts off similar marks this term including last time out when a creditable 4th at Chester, in a £40,000 race, despite a bad draw. 16/1 is far too big, methinks, and hopefully each-way suppport will be rewarded. Good luck, people.
I may have a small e/w bet today on VENEGAZZU in the 3.35. He is very well bred (being half-brother to 3 winners and out of an Irish Oaks winner) and the stable seem to be picking up some momentum (9 runners in last 14 days have netted 2 wins and 2 places). At 20/1 he's worth a nibble!
Morning all hope everyone is well. For the sake of doing something different I am starting my place betting experiment today - see thread here: http://www.not606.com/showthread.php/84455-The-Place-Betting-Experiment Anyone is welcome to join in. First bet and nap of the day is Money Never Sleeps in the 2.45 at Epsom (Place bet only) Best of luck to everyone
As did this: Paddy McCoy, an elderly Irish farmer, received a letter from the Department for Work & Pensions, stating that they suspected he was not paying his employees the statutory minimum wage and they would send an inspector to interview them. On the appointed day, the inspector turned up. "Tell me about your staff," he asked Paddy. "Well," said Paddy, "there’s the farm hand, I pay him €240 a week, and he has a free cottage. Then there’s the housekeeper. She gets €190 a week, along with free board and lodging. There’s also the half-wit. He works a 16 hour day, does 90% of the work, earns about €25 a week, along with a bottle of whisky, and as a special treat occasionally gets to sleep with my wife." "That’s disgraceful" said the inspector, "I need to interview the half-wit." "That’ll be me then," said Paddy.
Hmmmmm ................ just found out my bookmaker of choice won't take place only bets on UK racing. Does anybody have any recommendations for online tote place betting? Thinking of just trying the tote online, anyone use them?
Morning all can't help you on that one Odddy mate I see Joseph has landed the ride on Seville - get in young Joseph lad
Oddy You're in top form this morning! I'm afraid i have no idea about place betting or who accepts such bets.
5 runners for the Champagne Stakes what a joke - Red Duke, Al Khan, Daddy Long Legs, Entifaadah and Trumpet Major
