Cheltenham 2019 Ante Post Thread

I did Coeur Sublime for the Triumph Hurdle but was a bit disappointed by his narrow defeat behind Chief Justice. Next time out I felt he would have stayed on to win based on the way he was closing before his final flight fall. I was surprised he was pushed out to 33/1 after that because he looks the sort who would be suited by Cheltenham.

Coeur Sublime is not setting a Triumph Hurdle level so far and you would think he would get a figure in the low 130's for the Fred Winter race. Having said that, the standard in the Triumph Hurdle market is hardly stellar thus far.

Sir Erec is a talking horse and favourite in some places but his maiden win only clocked a figure of 118 with the Racing Post assessor. He is lightly raced and open to improvement but it is hard to get away from the thinking that his place in the market is due to being third to Stradivarius on the Flat in a Group 2. Six have run from his maiden hurdle race since 27th December and all six were unplaced. You can't expect much from those beaten a long way in maiden hurdles but the fact that they go on to be beaten as far in other poor maidens puts the form of Sir Erec at a level where fast improvement will be required to merit his position in the Triumph Hurdle market.

Tiger Tap Tap was runner up to Sir Erec and only beaten a neck. The gelding won a couple of races in France over 10F, a maiden and a conditions race. On a line through Pascal Bary's maiden Lennox, Tiger Tap Tap gets a rough mid 80's RP rating in terms of Flat ability. He clearly has the same limitations in terms of his RPR of just 118 over hurdles thus far and the fact that he was beaten by Sir Erec, and the fact that the O'Brien trained horse has a best RPR of 114 in comparison, leave you thinking the Mullins/Mrs Ricci representative Tiger Tap Tap looks poor value at similar odds for the Triumph.

Paul Nicholls has a contender with more hurdling experience and better form strength in the form of Quel Destin. This fellow has won five hurdle races now and seems to have improved a fair bit for Nicholls. He was more than 7 lengths behind another contender Adjali when they met in France but reversed that when beating him by a neck in the Finale Hurdle. At 14/1, he seems better value than some of the maiden only winners so far but he does not have a lot of wriggle room with Henderson's Adjali and I have to say that I find the official handicapper's mark of 148 for Quel Destin and 147 for Adjali looks a bit high to me, I would have them about 140 at best.

Torpillo is a typical looking French purchase for Simon Munir and he has had success with it before now. Peace And Co did the business in the Triumph before largely losing his way afterwards and Torpillo could just go out there and rout them at Cheltenham if it comes up heavy on the day. He has demolished his field twice at Sandown, not needing to build on his first start when landing the odds in a race where he pretty much said Fukuto, to the horse of the same name. The question is whether he can do the same on better ground to the horses with decent flat form? I think he looks big at 16/1 with Ladbrokes and I would be nearer Bet Victor at 8/1 given that others have something to prove yet and Torpillo's RPR of 136 may not be as far behind Quel Destin and Adjali as the official handicapper is saying with his figures for that pair.

That is my take on the main market leaders at the moment.

I would want to lay Tiger Tap Tap and to a lesser extent Sir Erec.

I feel Torpillo is the best value at 16/1, with the potential to perhaps run them ragged and take the sting out of Joey's Sir Erec.

Torpillo 16/1 recommended. His next target is said to be the Victor Ludorum at Haydock, where they are hoping to get soft ground again. Top Notch won for connections there and Frodon is another recent winner of the race.

 

Of course, but please no more bad news. I have a strong bet 10/1 for the Foxhunter. I hope nothing unusual happens today.

 

Evans Williams has confirmed that Silver Streak will go for the Champion Hurdle. Now I know he's probably not good enough to win but at 33/1 NRNB he's a decent ew poke for a place. You can get 50/1 in a few places but only at 1/5 odds and not money back if non runner. He's certainly not that far off Verdana Blue based on the Greatwood form though VB will get a nice weight pull from their last meeting. Fair play to connections for having a go.

 

That might explain some of his recent performances then...

 

Shantou Flyer non runner yesterday. Next Hunter Chase is in Ludlow 17th, entries close tomorrow.

 

Quel Destin is narrowly favourite for the Fred Winter but I would think it highly unlikely he will run.

The Paul Nicholls horse is officially rated 148 and I cannot recall a horse with such a high rating ever running in the Handicap race for youngsters. The winner who toted the biggest weight to victory in the race was Crack Away Jack, who shouldered 11-10 in 2008. Even then his official rating was only 133 coming into the race. It would seem highly likely that Quel Destin will go for the Triumph Hurdle instead.

Coeur Sublime has already been mentioned by Eddie earlier in the thread and he is vying for favouritism with old sparring partner Chief Justice. The former horse lost very narrowly when they first met but had the better of it in the rematch before falling at the last with the race looking to be in his grasp. In their first meeting Chief Justice was concending 7 lbs but on the second occasion it was only 3 lbs, so despite Chief Justice being 4 lbs better in, Coeur Sublime was in the process of turing the form around. Chief Justice is more experienced and the more lightly raced, but the unfortunate Coeur Sublime appeals much more of the two, given that they are both top-priced 14/1.

Some horses in the list are only very sparingly quoted, usually an indicator that there is some dubiety about their participation. With that in mind, SkyBet seem the place to go for an early bet because you will be refunded if the horse does not run. Bearing in mind that Quel Destin looks unlikely based on his pretty high official rating and some of the moans coming from Irish trainers when the weights are announced, I felt there was reason to be drawn to the Triumph Hurdle trial run at Cheltenham in mid December as a source of contenders for the Fred Winter.

The JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle was won the previous year by Apples Shakira and she was favourite for the Triumph itself in the aftermath of the race where she had been red hot favourite. Although disappointing as 6/5 Fav on the day in the Triumph, she had lined up with an official rating of 146, which would seem to be on a different level to the most recent renewal of the trial race this time around, where the first three home are fairly tightly bunched and would perhaps hold a more realistic chance in the Handicap version.

The first three home in the 2018 JCB Trial Juvenile Hurdle were:- 1. Nelson River 2. Fanfan Du Seuil 3.Katpoli

All three would seem to be a bit short of Triumph Hurdle grade, given the highest official rating of them is currently 136. They would be lining up on level weights in the Triumph, compared to getting 12 lbs from Quel Destin if they faced him in the Fred Winter. Obviously that is based on ratings as things stand and the scenario will change as some horses have yet to get an official figure and the Irish horses will have to be awarded a figure to run from in the Fred Winter.

In the Cheltenham Trial, Dr Richard Newlands' Katpoli made the running and was only passed as they entered the final furlong, Tom George's Fanfan Du Seuil was the one to pick up the running and looked likely to win until the Tony Carroll trained Nelson River finished strongly to pip him by a length. Fanfan Du Seuil was conceding 3 lbs to the other pair and he emerged with an official rating of 136, having gone into the race on 133.

General odds on all three horses is 20/1, although there is some 25/1 on Katpoli. Nelson River is 2/2 over hurdles and started his life out with Clive Cox on the Flat. He continued on the Flat for Tony Carroll before starting his hurdling life in a modest Bangor maiden. Rated 75 at best on the level, he has done well to reach a RPR of 125 over hurdles and the line through Fanfan Du Seuil suggests his official mark will exceed the Racing Post figure. The worry for me is that he seemed to have plenty to do in his latest race and looked an unlikely winner at one stage. In my experience, horses who come with a withering run to win a contest often fail to repeat it in later races. While Katpoli is in the ball park, I prefer Tom George's Fanfan Du Seuil as the one most likely to prevail at the Festival.

I was taken by the way that Fanfan Du Seuil won at Exeter in November. The ex French horse was outpaced when overjumping and falling at the second last in his UK debut at Chepstow but he was much better when easily accounting for Alan King's Our Power, by five lengths, despite running green in the Exeter race. He looked a good prospect that day and with only four runs in his life, he surely has more to come. Fanfan Du Seuil will not actually turn 4YO until six weeks after the Festival, so time is very much on his side.

Of the others in the betting Nicky Henderson's Style De Vole is most prominent, as low as 10/1 in places. In the right hands and lightly raced but that brings with it the usual bookies miser streak. William Hill do go 20/1, which is more like it than 10/1. The biggest thing to note is that he was beaten 6 lengths by Our Power, when a shade of odds-on and that horse was previously 5 lengths behind Fanfan Du Seuil. While it is early days with these young hurdlers, it makes no sense for me that Style De Vole is half the odds of Fanfan Du Seuil in some lists.

That's my thoughts on the Fred Winter race. I like Fanfan Du Seuil because he is in the right sort of rating band, is lightly raced and he could have more to come. He is 20/1 in places but if you can put up with 16/1 from Skybet, you have peace of mind if he doesn't run. I'll be shocked if Nicholls thinks that Quel Destin conceding weight from a lofty official rating is a good plan.

Fred Winter Hurdle Fanfan Du Seuil 16/1 (NRNB) SkyBet. Is my selection.

 

Anyone tempted by Waiting Patiently at 7/1 for the Ryanair?

Considering that he was so short for the King George over the unknown 3 miles, it seems like everyone has lost faith in the Jefferson horse now.

He doesn't run this weekend though, despite being entered, and they say he's unlikely to take on Altior (Very wise) in the Clarence House.

The horse is entered in the Irish Gold Cup AND the two mile Dublin Chase at Leopardstown and the talk is then of the Ascot Chase, which he won last season.

With the Ryanair his target, it seems that the 3 mile King George and entries in vastly different races at Leopardstown are hardly ideal preps for Cheltenham. The Ascot Chase is the first bit of logcal thinking I have heard so far.

It's hard to imagine Waiting Patiently being 7/1 for the Ryanair if he doubles up in the Ascot Chase next month.

I'll think this one over for a while.

 

The crookmakers seem to be a bit tardy waving the festival NRNB banner this year. I'm sure it had been hoisted by most by this time last year. What's going on?

 

Music for my ears

Henderson in Unibet blog:

"How is Daphne Du Clos? Has she recovered and will we be seeing her soon? She looked really exciting.

Yes, she was, and could still be, very exciting. She worked this morning and jumps very well and is a very talented mare. I think she will be appearing very shortly as I want to get two runs into her before the Trull House Mares’ Novice at the Festival."

She has an entry on Thursday at Wincanton.

 

Interesting that Unibet are the stand out price (According to Oddschecker). I don't usually get involved in ante-post in Jan (Usually Feb onwards). However, this is tempting me at 10/1, especially before her run on Thursday.

 

Quick Grabim out of Cheltenham, Stress Fracture

 

Delta Work should be 9/4 fav for the RSA, 5/1 a fair price.

Topofthegame seems to find a way to lose races and Santini has always been overrated, how he is favourite for this is absolutely staggering. Delta Work is bombproof in every department, best form over hurdles, best form over fences, likes good ground, won at the fesitval last year, same race Presenting Percy won before winning this I think.

 

Great Field out

Mullins said on Monday: "Great Field is still very sore after his fall at Christmas and will miss Cheltenham. We're hoping he might make Punchestown but it's probably too early to tell at this stage.

"He's been a bit unlucky but if he comes back with the same enthusiasm he's always shown then I'll be very happy."

 

Carefully Selected entered at Navan on Saturday.

 

Agree with OddDog about the poor quality of the Novice Hurdlers thus far. Mullins had another underwhelming pair at Punchestown on Sunday in Buildmeupbuttercup and Harrie, who were both fancied in places for the Moscow Flyer Hurdle but were both thumped 20 lengths and more by horses coming in rated in the mid 130's.

I thought Gordon Elliott's Battleoverdoyen was as good as I had seen as a prospect this season but I was torn over his best chance being at 2 miles or over further. He looked speedy enough the first time I saw him but it looked like he may need a longer trip based on his win over 2 mile 4 furlongs recently. Connections said he would probably have another race before Cheltenham and a final decision would be made then. I sort of regret not taking 16/1 for the Ballymore and he is 6/1 for that race now but I thought the Supreme is more prestigious and looks pretty open this year.

The trainer reported that Battleoverdoyen was immature and had slight lameness last year and he added that the jockey had said the horse was clueless when he hit the front in his most recent race. A bit sloppy at the last hurdle, he had jumped safely prior to that and he was described as a big horse who will make a chaser in due course (Not the first time anyone has said that eh?)

I was a bit surprised that the Racing Post only gave Battleoverdoyen a 2 lb higher rating for winning a Grade 1 hurdle than they did for winning his maiden Hurdle. Mullins' Tornado Flyer flopped in the Lawlor's Of Naas race but you would think the winner improved a bit more than 2 lbs.

My own sort of ballpark figure for Cheltenham prospects in Novice Hurdles is 150 and I reckon Battleoverdoyen is probably going to prove in that area.

Champ sets the standard for Henderson, he was raised 11 lbs to 150 by the official handicapper for his latest win but the Racing Post were less impressed,giving him 144 after a 150 for his previous win. The Ballymore favourite is 7YO and a bit more exposed than the Elliott horse, who won't actually be 6YO until June this year.

Battleoverdoyen for me and I will probably play just before his next race.

 

If you are going by the date they were born then Champ will only be six at the festival.

The novice hurdle sphere is really interesting because of the hype around a couple of Henderson horses and the mixed fortunes of the big Irish yards.

If the weather changes soon I think some soft ground big field races will shake up the betting for these races, along with the new Irish festival.

 

I see Paul Nicholls has taken my advice and entered frodon for the gold cup currently 50/1 in places this won’t last when he wins the Cotswolds chase in a couple of weeks.now that’s what I call an ante post. I should imagine the bookies shortening when they read this.

 

No horse has done the Cotswold Chase / CGC double since 2000 so I doubt it would have a huge effect even if Frodon did win (re him and 26.5 furlongs you really do have to, in my view, think about Charlie Slater and his taxi).

The ‘Cotswold Chase’ certainly has fallen down the old pecking order of CGC ‘trials’ in recent years. The other fascinating thing re that race is that no favourite has won the heat since 1999! So if Frodon starts fave in 10 days time it may be wise to throw your ticket away come ‘tapes up’!