2.00 Doncaster- MAGIC CITY 8/1 (NAP)- It is hard to get away from the disappointment of his runs since an impressive debut winning by 6L from Signifer at Newbury in April, and it would be perfectly understandable to think you'd have to be mad to back him. However, I do think there are reasons for hope today. After a 'shock' defeat to Miss Work Of Art on his second start, Richard Hughes stated that he was trying to teach Magic City to settle in his next race at Windsor, looking to bring him from behind. What we have seen from every race since then, is that the horse looks outpaced at the half-way stage. There have been flashes of ability for all to see, including when running on strongly over 6f at Newmarket, and was again noted for late headway in competitive heats at Ascot, and LTO at York behind Bogart. I just wonder if they might have found the trick by upping him to 7f. He seems to finish his races pretty well, and that has been in evidence from the very beginning. The problem part has been the middle of races, when the tempo quickens, though there were definite signs of learning to ride a hold-up race when behind Bannock and then Pymans Theory, though again outpaced at the critical stage. Having re-watched some of the footage, I think Hughes was tender on him, especially last time out at York, and maybe dropping into a nursery like todays can see him back in the winners enclosure. He races off a mark of 88 today, there is nothing of the standard of Frederick Engels, Bannock, or Miss Work of Art, and it would be very disappointing if he could not make the frame upped to what I think might turn out to be a more suitable trip, if that solves the puzzle? 2.35 Doncaster: EUREKA 9/2- I have to say that the favourite Alaskan Bullet looks very short at 7/4, having beaten nothing of note at Yarmouth. Eureka was an eye-catching 5th of 25 in the Newbury Super Sprint behind Charles The Great and subsequently finished 5L behind Harbour Watch, which is still very solid form given his performances so far. This looks like the horse they all have to beat and I think sets a very tall standard at a fair price. 3.10 Doncaster- GROUP THERAPY 13/2 The feature race of the day- Scarbrough Stakes- is not historically kind to favourites, with just one favourite winnins since 1997. You'd have to say, away from Ascot, that makes Medicean Man look a little short at 7/2. I'm going with Group Therapy, who certainly has the class to take this listed event and has put up some very good efforts in Group Company this season, including when looking a desperately unlucky 3rd in the Group 2 King George Stakes at Goodwood. The booking of Jamie Spencer is intriguing, as we know he can be a very good front-running jockey in these types of races. As of late, Group Therapy has been held up, but when you look at a lot of his earlier winning and placed form, he was ridden more prominently. I wouldn't at all mind seeing Spencer try and dictate the pace, but we will see. An interesting stat is that of the last 8 winners,2 have made all, and 6 have been directly behind the early pace. It would take an exceptional ride to win from the rear. 4.20 Doncaster: RASMY 10/1 e.w Rasmy is one of those horses where you can't help but feel his form is better than the bare figures. Having said that, there are a few Marcus Tregoning horses that I might feel the same way about and for that reason you have to play e/w, as he is not the most prolific. 3rd in a Group 3 at Chester last season, there is clearly ability, and his run over a mile and a half at Goodwood when keeping on behind Drunken Sailor showed he was certainly no lost cause, and travelled very well. He should be spot on now for just his third run of the season and looks to have progressed gradually. If building on that Goodwood run, he looks a real danger to all, especially slightly lowered in class.
4 for me tomorrow, one courtesy of Nass who has made me add in an extra selection 3.10 Doncaster Medicean Man 4/1 and Humidor 16/1 Tomorrows race is a classic encounter of horses dropping down from Group Company against improving horses and I am going to have my main selection on the favourite Medicean Man who was quite an unlucky loser LTO behind a horse I have been following for a while in the shape of Dungannon. Although I agree with TopC that he undoubtedly does his best at Ascot, he has won around here as well as putting in a couple of other good efforts so I am not hugely concerned by the change of course. 4/1 was the minimum I was willing to accept in a very tough field which includes a horse I backed LTO in Dinkum Diamond who I think will overturn the form of his defeat to Duchess Dora and whether or not it will be enough is questionable. Rain would do no harm for MM tomorrow and Richard Hughes looks a very eye cataching booking as it is only the 3rd time he will ever ride for Jeremy Gask. I certainly think MM is up to winning a Listed race but whether or not tomorrow is the day we'll have to wait and see. Nass put up a very interesting argument in yesterdays thread for Humidor and he's convinced me to have a bet. Looking for a horse as a form line between my two selections I've discovered one exists between the rather consistent Addictive Dream. Humidor beat Addictive Dream off level weights by 0.75L back in May and he has finished subsequently about 1.4L behind Medicean Man on the latter's last start when behind Dungannon. Addictive Dream was receiving 4lbs from Medicean Man that day and with MM and Humidor racing off level weights tomorrow its certainly plausible that Humidor has improved the difference, which is certainly plausible with Humidor being stepped up to Group Class in the interim period,and thats purely looking at a physical relation between the form. Throw in the good form of Baker and the 40% strike rate when Frankie jumps on and I think 16s is a very good price. Considering I fancy MM I will probably have a bet on Humidor W/O likely at the time favourite MM as I should get decent odds and I could strike two winning bets as opposed to one 4.50 Doncaster Shesastar 11/2 Another race full of fast improving types and I'm going to side with David Barron's filly who to me looks on the best mark out of a lot of rapidly improving types. She put in an excellent effort when stepped up tomorrows trip of 7f for the first time to land a decent handicap at York recently beating the pretty consistent Sioux Rising into 2nd. She surely relished the step up in trip and there seems to be much more to come. She's up effectively 6lb from that effort (tomorrows jockey Jamie Spencer posted 1lb over weight) and I can definitely see her playing a large role in tomorrow's contest. Of the others I think the value call must be with Andrew Balding'sSea Soldier 12/1, who went down by a narrow 1.06L to tomorrows favourite White Frost on his last outing. There is now a 7lb swing between the pair as Sea Soldier has won again since but at 2.5 times the price I would be willing to play the e/w option if your looking for another alternative 5.30 Carlisle Kathlatino FC 33/1 Going to take a chance on Micky Hammond's 4 year old maiden who has been plummeting down the weights on the back of a series of poor runs. She made an impressive debut at 100/1 after breaking free and sprinting for ages before being caught before building on that promise when finishing an unlucky neck 2nd to Law To Himself who ironically broke free before winning that contest. Kathlatino put another of moderately decent effort in maidens before going completely off the boil when switched to handicaps last July. Initially assigned a mark of 69, her mark has dramatically fallen owing to her truly awful displays over trips varying from 9f to 12f. However, she caught my eye LTO when she travelled very well for large portions of the race and was never asked for maximum effort as she finished under a hands and heels ride to finish 7.25L behind the winner back in 6th off a mark of 52 over 12f at Thirsk. It was definitely a step back in the right direction and hopefully a turning point in her career. The form of her last race is pretty good also. The 2nd Jeu De Vivre won impressively off the same mark on her next start and the 3rd Gems finished a length 2nd off the same mark as well. Furthermore, the 8th Aegean Destiny won by 2.25L on his only subsequent start off a 2lb lower mark and the 9th Miss Ferney won in very impressive fashion by 3L off a 3lb lower mark also. It certainly demonstrates that on her last run and runs as a 3 year old that Kathlatino certainly isn't a hopeless case. Tomorrow she races off a lowly mark of 50 and drops back into a Class 6 race after competing in a Class 5 event. She's dropped back down to 9f tomorrow and although personally I would have kept her at 10-12f I am not the trainer so who am I to know. Intriguingly Freddy Tylicki takes the ride for the first time since her first and best two races so fingers crossed they're gearing up a full on onslaught at what could be a massive price.
3.10 Doncaster Medicean Man. Was beaten by a good animal in Dungannon but would certainly have picked him up with a clear run. Captain Dunne the danger. 4.20 Doncaster Ceilidh House. Ran a good race on her reappearance behind Timepiece and the weight pull could be decisive. 5.40 Uttoxeter Thespis of Icaria. Odds on but money for old rope.
Great write ups again men been told Cross Lorraine in the last at Carlisle, will not be last !!!!!!!!!! get an early price as place at least expected was given Captain Dunne LTO so ill have a go at getting some money back will also have acouple of bob EW on Kevin Darleys Triabal Myth AND DONate the winnings to his charity Stay Frosty
Tam I was very close to napping Ceilidh House but am just a bit wary that the going may be too lively. If the forecast light rain can take the "firm" out of the going description she could be a very decent bet
Toppy, I agree with you on Eureka I thought that he should be the jolly on the formbook and 9/2 is a very fair price for him dropping into a conditions race, I haven't backed him though because I am a little worried about the small field size. It will win because I have left it alone! I am also making sure I don't back Magic City ever again so you could be on for a profitable day. I don't understand what they have done with the horse, a bit of an enigma.
Morning all. God I need something to inspire me after another insipid display at Wembley last night and maybe it will be in the form of ................ 5.10 Uttoxeter Geneva Geyser (NAP) Rated 88 on the flat and, switched to Lady Herries for a NH career, this 5 year old gelding has rattled up a hattrick of novice hurdle wins in most impressive fashion, still to come off the bridle in 3 bloodless victories. An initial handicap rating of 130 is by no means lenient but this could be a very decent novice and the step up to handicap company would seem to indicate connections have pretty lofty ambitions before the winter ground arrives. Best of luck everyone
OddDog, good morning. Howya keeping? How's your "World Heritage?" Now don't talk yourself out of Geneva Geyser!
Fine Tam, got a couple of days off looking after the kids as the wife is away in Munich. Don't mention World Heritage . I seem to have caught a bad bout of seconditis with my naps (6 in September to date, 1 won, 1 fell and 4 finished 2nd ). Enough to make you start backing tote place
Oddy, funny you should mention Munich- I hitchhiked round Germany in '67 and spent 10 days there. Absolute magic! Got p-ssed every night in the Hofbrauhaus; lovely, cultural city! As for Berlin, we went there a few years ago and stayed on the Kurfurstendamm. Every time I experience the horror of Birmingham Airport, I think of the 'rotunda' design of Tegel Airport in Berlin. Light years ahead of us!
Having a tiny bet or few at Carlisle!! Soft ground sire bet - Sunley Valentine - By Kyllachy (Pivotal line) - 6/1 Naseem Alyasmeen - By Clodovil (French career on softer than good ground) - 7/4 Mistress Of Rome - By Holy Roman Emperor (lots of soft ground winners recently) - 7/1 Honeymead - By Pivotal - 7/2 Captain Kolo - By Captain Rio (my favourite soft ground sire - Pivotal line again) - 6/1 Cross Of Lorraine - By Pivotal - 8/1 I really think Cross Of Lorraine should be shorter than that, if the rain comes even more then I think it will win today.
Morning all, hope everyone is well. Plenty of good winners on here so keep up the good work. Anyone close to Carlisle able to give a weather / ground update? Not backing much at the moment, am having some down time and concentrating my efforts on plundering the spread betting companies at the rugby world cup!!
Tam Tegel is a great little city airport which is unfortunately going to close next year when the new Berlin-Brandenburg International opens (on the site of the current Schoenefeld Airport). I have travelled many times from Tegel over the years on business - you can literally turn up 45 minutes before the flight and whizz straight through to the gate I used to find BHX OK as I flew BA quite a bit from there and their gates were up the top end away from all the riff-raff. Nice BA lounge as well . FLew out of there recently with Lufthansa though .......... very dodgy. Mind you, better than London City. They want a fiver for a pint of stella
Don, Nass and Heisenburg, Although knowhere near Carlisle, the current weather forecast is saying: Scattered showers and sunshine at first but showers becoming increasingly widespread and frequent, merging into more persistent rain from midday, perhaps heavy over hills later. So 8/1 about Cross of Lorraine could well be looking very tasty if that price come 1800. Good luck
Top: As Group Therapys biggest fan i hope you are correct HOWEVER Frank gave him a shocker when he rode him in the Temple Stakes so i am a bit concerned! Hopefully it was a case of Mr Barron not knowing the horse as that was only the 2nd time he had run for him. You are correct Group Therapys best races have been when he has been up with the pace from the off so hopefully today is the day mate
"I am also making sure I don't back Magic City ever again so you could be on for a profitable day. I don't understand what they have done with the horse, a bit of an enigma....." Nassau: Cyclonic111 C.C., our castration consultant, will probably recommend something to remedy this?...................<run>................... Tamerlo: Did you sing-along with the Japanese tourists in the Hofbräuhaus? Just a stone's throw from my docs, so whenever he gives me bad news I just fall out of his office, into the Hofbräuhaus and get pissed........and sing-along with the Japanese too..........
Good Morning hope everyone is well, two bets for me today. Dettori rides for the inform K Ryan in the 4.50 at Doncaster Louis The Pious and also Kingscote / Dascombes only runner of the day Bear Behind in the 3.10 at Doncaster, two win sinlges and an e/w double, took 5's and 10's respectively. Good luck with your runners today
Good morning gents, hope we are all well. A few to go at today but im not confident at finding them, cows backsides and banjos are my order of the day at the moment...!!! Anyway i like a couple of todays runners at Uttoxeter, but both are in tricky races. Layla's Dancer in the opener gets my vote in which a couple have a chance but Layla's Dancer has finished 2nd and 1st in his last 2 hurdles attempts and the extra few furlongs may bring a bit more out of him... Top weight in the 4.05, Haldibari 17/2, is bringing good flat form with the knowledge of winning at 3m and further into this race. Again its a bit of an open race, but i shall stick to what i think... Uttoxeter... 2.20 - Layla's Dancer, 4/1 2.55 - The Fox;s Decree, 4/1 3.30 - High Jack, 7/2 4.05 - Haldibari, 17/2 4.40 - Nearby, 11/10 5.10 - Geneva Geyser, 3/1 - Hope ive not jinxed you Oddy...!!! 5.40 - Thespis Of Icaria, 1/2 Good luck to all today who play...
