I just have to have a good look at the 2.40 tomorrow as, on the face of it, there are two lively outsiders. They are, Samovar and Eskimo Point. Have to shoot off now but will post my reasoning later. Will probably end up thinking myself out of it but I hope not
2pt up before today UNPLACED Quite Subunctious 1pt EW @ 14/1 BOG (4 places with Paddy Power) WON 1pt EW Candesta @ 11/1 (Paddy Power 4 places) - Returned 15.2 (darn 1/5 odds) UNPLACED Divine Call 4pt Win @ 3/1 BOG WON Mr Strutter 2pt win @ 15/2 BOG - returned 17 10pts staked 32.2 returned 24.2 of profit
Tomorrow is an interesting day, and one i've had to make sure the statistics are right for a couple of the selections!! 11:20 - Thechildrenstrust comes out top on sire statistics and what is very interesting how much better Society Rock is doing on the fibresand (26%) than the other artificial surfaces (12%) and this is a surface switcher after running a very eyecatching race last time out at Kempton. Horse Sire Sire % Thechildrenstrust Society Rock 26 Motajaasid Harbour Watch 19 Helen Sherbet Makfi 18 Bold Spirit Invincible Spirit 17 Tavener Exceed And Excel 16 Robero Piccolo 15 Alba Del Sole Dandy Man 15 Air Of York Vale Of York 14 Gabrial The Tiger Kodiac 12 Holiday Magic Dark Angel 10 Dream Mount Dream Ahead 10 Eponina Zoffany 9 The first three in the market are highlighted and of those I think Motajaasid is probably the correct favourite. However I like the chances of the top rated on sires and I think from a good stall of 6 he can make a really good go of this. Thechildrenstrust 2pt @ 13/2 BOG
12:55 Interesting little race, and the one that stands out on sire statistics is also one that I put in my notebook after his run last time out. Horse Sire Sire % Foreign Legion Declaration Of War 43 Thunder Buddy Mayson 28 Bee Machine Footstepsinthesand 19 Dont Do It Casamento 17 Westfield Wonder Captain Gerrard 16 First Breath Bated Breath 14 Bond Angel Monsieur Bond 12 Diamond Pursuit Pastoral Pursuits 12 Sir Walter Camacho 9 Prince Consort Most Improved 0 Foreign Legion is the horse, he ran a stormer to finish as close as he did over 5 furlongs ten days ago, and really showed an aptitude for the surface. He now should be sharper for that experience and steps up to a more suitable trip. He is drawn towards the centre amd from the bottom of the handicap I think he will run well. 2pt @ 4/1 BOG The other horse to note is Thunder Buddy whose sire we've discussed at lengths in this thread, and returning for a winter of all weather racing should suit him. He could be well handicapped, or he might be horribly handicapped!! I am prepared to watch him here, so get on!
2.40 Another interesting race for the figures, and whilst the discrepancy on sire statistics isn't as big, I think both Moonraker and Captain Lars hold obvious chances here. Both are course and distance winners and they are the classy horses in the race. Both are drawn high which is a worry (pace low in stalls 1,2,4) but hopefully stalls 8 and 10 will both go forwards and set a honest gallop for those drawn high. Horse Sire Sire % Captain Lars Captain Al 33 Moonraker Starspangledbanner 22 Midnight Malibu Poet's Voice 17 Gnaad Invincible Spirit 17 Something Lucky Clodovil 16 Jashma Power 16 Samovar Finjaan 13 Bowson Fred Monsieur Bond 12 Erissimus Maximus Holy Roman Emperor 10 Ornate Bahamian Bounty 10 Tricky Dicky Holy Roman Emperor 10 Acclaim The Nation Acclamation 10 Just That Lord Avonbridge 9 Eskimo Point Lope De Vega 8 1pt Captain Lars @ 13/2 1pt Moonraker @ 7/1
Thechildrenstrust 2pt @ 13/2 BOG Foreign Legion 2pt @ 4/1 BOG 1pt Captain Lars @ 13/2 BOG 1pt Moonraker @ 7/1 BOG 6pt staked tomorrow.
Any chance that Bowson Fred has to got to a very dangerous mark? Not been running as badly as the figures suggest and his one effort at the track 11 months ago would surely give him a very decent chance, no?
Too many runners with a chance and the odds for the 2 mentioned are nowhere near tempting in a 14 runner handicap. Eskimo Point, was interesting purely because it was his first run for new trainer since coming over from France where he last won on soft going. Sired by Lope De Vega out of a Daylami mare. Samovar looked very interesting because he finished 4th last time out at this track, having had 5 runs on the trot at Nottingham (the last 4 all unplaced) following 2 runs at Southwell which he won. However, having looked at some of the others, in particular Mr Moonraker and Something Lucky, it's a no bet race for me. Mr Moonraker has only ever ran once at the track and on that occasion he came fast and late in a very fast time carrying just 1lb more than he does tomorrow. Something Lucky hasn't done a great deal lately, running mainly at Chelmsford but earlier in the year won over this C&D in a fast time carrying a stone more than he does tomorrow and finished strongly lto over C&D. Just spotted these 2 have the same trainer. Maybe one will drift and money goes down on the other. If pushed therefore I would take the current odds on both with BOG (4/1 SL and 13/2 MM). I think that's about 2/1 the pair; not particularly good value in a 14 runner handicap, so just for interest me thinks.
His problem is that he isn't straightforward out of the gates, last time he reared badly (yet didn't cost him much ground) and if he does that at Southwell he will be well behind. His visit to Southwell was interesting because he got squeezed out early, and had to switch which made him run wider of the field and thus missed most of the kickback. Tomorrow if he gets behind he will likely to be in the kickback of those drawn low. If that happens, will he enjoy it? Not sure. I'd say he's short enough in the market given the questions about him. Would it be a shock to see him win? Not that much of a shock in a very tricky field.
Without knowing he was squeezed out and had to switch, I would have said yes that does give him a half decent chance as it was a decent time and he carries 5lb less tomorrow. Knowing what Nass tells us I would say he has a three quarters decent chance
Unfortunately short on time tonight, so only time for selections but here we go: 11:20 - Helen Sherbet 11:50 - Foxy Lass 12:20 - None 12:55 - Thunder Buddy 13:30 - Dreadful race with not a win amongst them... I'll side with Foxrush Take Time 14:05 - Hammer Gun 14:30 - Midnight Malibu / Moonraker 15:05 - None
Did we bid Adieu to The General ? And why on earth did they chuck Piazon in a 6f race? Great stuff here lads, with Candesta in particular, Nass Looking forward to seeing how Captain Lars gets on today. And Edgar is back ( 11.50 ) , albeit at 2m, and after quite a break. https://www.racingpost.com/results/394/southwell-aw/2016-02-02/642388 February 2016 that race was, and I was still a relative newcomer to all this then - how impressed was I.
Extraordinary coincidence: the Nass 11.20 selection (The Children's Trust) runs on the day that the son-in-law of a friend of ours who works at TCT in Tadworth, Surrey has put a Christmas song out on to the net to help the Trust. If you google up Cedarsupersound you'll find a youtube link to A Song for Jamie. Hit on that - it won't cost you anything - and the Trust will get a donation. If you have time, hit it twice! It's not compulsory to back the horse, apparently.
That was one that got away. He’ll be winning on the surface this winter. Just shuffled back and gave first run
Normal service resumed. The only thing I got right was to leave the race alone. Even one originally considered a live outsider was only 11/2 at the off and lost by 2 necks. After over thinking, the ones that put me off were both unplaced
Unfortunately not got time as I’d like for this 1:10 Gabrials Centurian 2pt win @11/2 1:45 Samover 2pt win @ 7/2 1:45 Landing Night 1pt win @ 11/2 2:20 Jazz Legend 2pt win @ 11/4 All BOG 7pt staked
