whenever i look at runners without southwell history , always see if they've shown a liking for soft going , its a definite plus , with that in mind Handsome Bob in the 2 20 for red hot dalglish , both wins on soft /heavy , first run here , worth a ew punt at 14/1
Just had a look at some of the Southwell races. Man it's a difficult course. A first I though it might be a leaders race, but from the races I viewed, the run home knocked a lot of them on the head. And the 12 furlong races were torrid old affairs. Not that I know too much about UK racing, but if I was to open the wallet and take a shot at Southwell, I think I'd concentrate on the staying races.
Yes they need to stay at Southwell AW. I think it's true at all distances. Even at 5f, the speediest horse won't win if it can't see out the finish (unless the ones behind can't either ). Probably even more true over long distances, as you say Cyc.
Ok I'm going to throw a dart and see what happens. As Ron conceded, it looks as though Southwell might suit a horse with a bit of heart. In the first, the mile and a half and the small field makes for an interesting race. The top weight Ezanak ran second here in a hurdle event over 2 miles when a 6-4 favourite last June. His only run this time in was at Kempton over 11F where he ran out of steam in the final furlong. With that run under his belt, maybe he can plod into contention at 25-1. 11:50. Ezanak EW 25-1.
I thought I was going to plump for just the one today, that being Divine Call in the 14.50, based on the easy manner in which he won last time out. But, that was on a standard surface coming from behind in a slow race, carrying 10lb less than he does today. Whereas Mininggold ran a faster time on standard to slow carrying 6lb more than DC. Taking a line through Honey Gg, Mininggold was btn shd receiving 1lb. Honeyg was btn 1½l by DC giving away 10lb. In Mininggold's race Furni Factors was a length behind Mininggold and is now 2lb better off. 2 months ago FF ran a decent time at Catterick (a fast track) lumping 10.5. Maybe 2lb isn't enough to reverse placings with Mininggold but he is only 3 so I would think he must be getting stronger Having lost a bit of confidence in the 11yo DC and with Mininggold at only 7/2 best price I think I should leave this race alone but, gun to head, at more than twice the price of Mininggold, I think I would have a small dabble ew on Furni Factors (currently best price 8/1), simply on the basis that he is close on form, is only 3 and can lump weight, and price
I did Nass, very easily but, as I said, it was a very slow pace and he came from some way back. They will go much faster today and he may not be able to go with them carrying an extra 10lb. I'm usually wrong though
