Isn't ATR losing all the Irish racing from 2019? Won't this channel be almost exclusively for all weather enthusiasts? Those of us who like national hunt will get a bit of action via the lesser tracks and the odd gem from Doncaster. Slim pickings indeed.
As my punting has evolved, more and more I look for exploitable angles rather than pure reading of form etc. I mentioned yesterday, my form study isn't good enough as I can't commit enough time and my general race reading isn't perfect either (pace, draw etc etc). However, I love the use of stats because, well, they don't lie. So the use of profiles (big race trends particularly) and stats at places like Southwell, due to its idiosyncratic nature is where I turn. When I go through the card at Southwell, I generally focus on horses that have little or no experience at the track (both my winners yesterday were either having first or second starts on the surface. What this means is that there is the opportunity to improve over what they have achieved to date, I do this largely irrespective of whether or not they have had 1,2 or 20 starts elsewhere. If they're sired by a Southwell specialist, such as Mayson then the likelihood is that the switch to the surface will bring about improvement over what they have shown to date, particularly if they've not raced on it much before. So my profile is generally unexposed horses on the surface by good sires (in terms of Strike Rate and A/E). Regarding the draw, I don't place too much of an emphasis on it at Southwell, I had previously noted that you didn't want to get stuck on the inside particularly on bends and into the home straight as that was perceived to ride slower, but I also read a piece that suggest since some sort of renovation that was no longer the case. I don't let the draw hold sway too much, moreover, I want a horse that will travel well on the surface (sire stats) and one that presents an opportunity to improve. I'll have a look at my data when I get chance to look at the cards later for the 5f race and see if there is anything noticeable. I don't try to read the races where it's Southwell specialist vs. Southwell specialist because there is no angle. It's a question of who's best on the day, which one is returning to form etc etc etc. Too many variables. As a result, I don't pay any attention to the repeated entries of trainers or horses, particularly because they would often not fit the profile of horse I'm looking for. What I do like to give a cursory glance to is the trainers overall record at Southwell, again Strike Rate and A/E are vital. Mick Appleby is a classic example, everyone knows he works a lot of his horses at the course, so he also should know which handle it and which don't. The problem is, the public know this and so do the bookies, so his horses are often poor value in races where there are arguably horses with 'better' Southwell profiles. Looking forward to going through the cards tonight and hopefully finding some more winners.
Couple of questions 1. Is there any way of finding out what facilities trainers have? 2. Are there any specific attributes that a horse needs to excel on the Southwell surface? What was it that made Monsun so good on the surface? Plus. Info courtesy of Flatstats You can also get the stats for Dam sires which could be useful. Flatstats is known to most on here but the depth of free data/info/help is amazing
I think it’s about .7 of a furlong. Both straights are around 3.2 furlongs in length and the round course is 1m2. The finish line is slightly further down the home straight so they run 3 furlongs off the turn.
Are you sure that'S right? If the run to the bend is less than a furlong and the run off the bend is 3F, then the bend is better that 2 F. If it's right, then any horse travelling 2 or 3 deep is going to give up distance,especially the latter. Any idea on leader stats winning and placing?
Yep, try and see if you can see the win of Black Salt yesterday. You can read the furlong poles on the turn. That race is a good one to watch as it shows you can make up ground as long as you don’t get stuck behind horses in the kickback
12:20 Interesting race with the following sire statistics Horse Sire Sire % It's How We Roll Fastnet Rock 16 Ejabah Iffraaj 16 Quite Subunctious Rip Van Winkle 15 Master Of Song Ballet Master 15 Boots And Spurs Oasis Dream 13 Our Manekineko Kyllachy 12 Aberdonian Royal Applause 11 Limerick Lord Lord Shanakill 10 Champagne Rules Aussie Rules 8 Song Of Summer Choisir 8 Molten Lava Rock Of Gibraltar 6 Kavora Havana Gold 0 Golden Guide Havana Gold 0 So the front three in the market are highlighted in bold, and whilst the sire statistics don't show that they go on the surface, both Boots and Spurs and Limerick Lord have course wins. However I am interested in Quite Subunctious who is drawn nicely in stall 4, races prominently and has dropped to a handicap mark that she should be competitive from. Quite Subunctious 1pt EW @ 14/1 BOG (4 places with Paddy Power)
12:50 Sometimes you see a horse who you know is going to go on the surface, and this race is one of those with Candesta being that horse. He won this race last year!! Horse Sire Sire % Candesta First Defence 33 African Showgirl Showcasing 17 Emilene Clodovil 16 Luath Archipenko 12 General Tufto Fantastic Light 12 Invinsible Zebedee 11 Catapult Equiano 10 Quick Monet Excellent Art 10 Cottingham Dalakhani 9 Harlequin Dancer Zoffany 9 Three Majors Lilbourne Lad 8 Jennies Gem Mount Nelson 6 Little Choosey Cadeaux Genereux 1 Again a race in which the front three in the market are pretty low down on the list. I think backing Candesta 1pt EW Candesta @ 11/1 (Paddy Power 4 places)
2:50 An interesting sprint handicap, with nothing really standing out on sire statistics - Horse Sire Sire % Another Situation Trappe Shot NA Divine Call Pivotal 19 Archimedes Invincible Spirit 17 Decision Maker Iffraaj 16 Furni Factors Captain Gerrard 16 Mininggold Piccolo 15 Ballesteros Tomba 11 Carlovian Acclamation 10 Hisar Dragon Pulse 10 Tina Teaspoon Kheleyf 10 Mountain Of Stars Equiano 10 Optimickstikhill Milk It Mick 5 Formiga Worthadd 0 The market looks about right in terms of picking out the horses likely to be suited by the track, and it is Divine Call who again gets the vote here. He won with a good deal in hand last time and if he gets a clear run, I think this mark is still well within his compass. Divine Call 4pt Win @ 3/1 BOG
15:20 Six Furlong handicap which the top three in the market are positives in the sire statistics. Horse Sire Sire % Fink Hill The Factor 50 Piazon Striking Ambition 20 Mr Strutter Sir Prancealot 20 First Excel First Trump 17 Dreamboat Annie Piccolo 15 Tell Me Kodiac 12 Sir Geoffrey Captain Rio 11 Tick The Boxes Fast Company 9 Coiste Bodhar Camacho 9 However its Fink Hill that leads the way, however I thought that his form was quite a bit off the best in this race and I can overlook him for Mr Strutter who ran with credit here on his penultimate start when getting a slow start. He should come on for that experience and is drawn nicely to attack here. Mr Strutter 2pt win @ 15/2 BOG The key to this race for me is the weight increase for First Excel and the form of Piazon on the 6 furlong track. If this was a straight five race, I would be having a good old bet on Piazon, but around the turn and the extra furlong, I have to be against. First Excel has been rising in the weights for not winning, and that can impede him here. Throw in the old boys and its a lovely looking race for Southwell fans.
Quite Subunctious 1pt EW @ 14/1 BOG (4 places with Paddy Power) 1pt EW Candesta @ 11/1 (Paddy Power 4 places) Divine Call 4pt Win @ 3/1 BOG Mr Strutter 2pt win @ 15/2 BOG 10pts staked
Apparently the stats are against females in races of both sexes at Southwell, particularly when the males account for more than 50% of the entries. Could be one of those useless stats as I'm not sure what the logic is
Well we're back on the sands of Southwell and I have to say that opportunities don't look quite as plentiful as they might. 11:50 - A race full of strong sires on the surface. The favourite bolted up last time out and a 6lb penalty might not stop him following up. If I was inclined to take the favourite on, I'd do so in the shape of Vivernus by the prolific Street Cry and God Willing by Arch who boasts a 30% strike rate at 1.2 A/E. Of the rest, Sociologist has is by Society Rock and he's beginning to forge quite a reputation but Scott Dixon couldn't be in any worse form. We've been doing well at Southwell, so I'm going to chance 0.5 pt win on both Vivernus (9/2) and God Willing (11/1), recognising that the odds on fav could easily follow up here. 12:20 - There are plenty of what you might consider exposed types here, but a number of them have yet to have raced on the fibresand. As a result, there is every chance that a one or more of them could take a step forward on what we've seen so far, if they're bred to take to Southwell. My original selection was going to be Deauville Society but that is now a non-runner. Unfortunately, nothing else really stands out to make a strong case for. The closest I came to something was It's how we roll, who is unexposed on the surface. There could be a case made for Southwell stalwarts Limerick Lord and Master of Song but there are price and fitness limitations here. A race to sit out for me. Given the lack of opportunities across the card todat, I've backed It's how we roll, 0.5 pt EW @ 9/1 12:50 - A race with several emerging Southwell sires, Candesta is by First Defence who is shaping up to be a force on the sand. Ordinarily I'd be interested in African Showgirl who has a lovely profile (trainer, jockey and sire all have good figures) and Ivan Furtado had a big priced winner the other day for us, but I'm tempered on this occasion by the fact AS has had 5 previous starts here and shown little. The one I am tempted to part with a small bet on is Emilene, somewhat unexposed after just 8 starts, she is bred to go well on the surface, but there is little else to go on. So I'm happy to have a minimum ew on both Emilene and African Showgirl (who on balance I'm prepared to give one last chance to on the surface). Emilene and African Showgirl (15/2) 0.25 EW 13:20 - This is not a race I want to get heavily involved in, Mick Appleby perseveres with Point Zero and will surely find a race at some point. Archie Watson introduces a likely type on paper, fetching a phenominal 240,000 euros at the breeze ups. Quite why he's choosing Southwell as a starting point, particularly with these connections is beyond me. Milchik is by Lethal Force (36% SR and 1.5 A/E) who has good record on the surface but one cannot recommend a horse off 573 days having finished last in 2 previous starts. Nothing makes any appeal for betting purposes here and frankly any result wouldn't surprise me. 13:50 - A race that initially presents as a betting opportunity. Mick Appleby once again dominates the market and I want to back up what I said earlier, he has a 15% SR with 0.9 A/E, these are far from exceptional given the amount of runners he has. You might suggest that he has a fair amount of horses shorten from early prices and that's a fair comment, but there are 4 other trainers in this race with better Strike Rate and A/E figures, which tells me that the value lies elsewhere. 2 horses jump out at me here and they both return from short breaks, Temple of Wonder by Clodovil and White Iverson by Tale of the Cat have what I consider to be excellent profiles. Dothraki is by Bungle in the Jungle who has already a winner from just 2 runners at the track. And Posh Perfect also has a fair profile but doesn't appeal too much at the prices. There are a couple of nagging doubts about the likely fitness of those returning from breaks but with plenty of the market taken by just 2 horses, I want to chance Temple of Wonder at the prices. 0.5 pts EW @ 9/1 14:20 - A bit of a funny race on paper, Filament of Gold is the one that takes the eye initially, but the fact the trainer is without a win here in 5 years from 17 attempts slightly tempers enthusiasm and I'd probably want a bit more juice in the price to tempt me in. Seventii makes her debut at the track and is bred for the job, has a good claimer on board and the trainer has had winners here. Of the others, Sosian makes some appeal on breeding and Long Socks could benefit from the run last time out here and certainly makes some appeal. The overall Strike Rate of the Notnowcato progeny isn't what I'd ordinarily like. I can't quite convince myself to select anything in the race and I'll keep an eye out on the market to see if anything pops up later today. 14:50 - A race I have looked at several times and it doesn't get any easier. I'm initially drawn to the course records of both Archimedes and Divine Call, with just about everything else at least having had a run at the course there doesn't immediately look like anything with untapped potential at the track. Another Situation is the exception having not run here before but returns from a short break and the sire has little go on with regards the ability to handle the surface. Furni Factors is bred to go well here but is 0/3 at the course and 0/20 overall. I suspect he just not be very good. The market looks about right here and I have it between Divine Call and Archimedes with the former having much the better recent form. Mininggold has in fact been raised 2lb for a couple of placed efforts and although there has been some money for her, I can't find significant reason to suggest she'll improve to win this race. All in all, I'll play the reverse forecast with Divine Call and Archimedes and 1 pt win on Divine Call. 15:20 - A difficult race to decipher here, with several Southwell regulars. Piazon has provided all 6 of his sires wins on the surface and clearly loves it around here. As too does First Excel and Sir Geoffrey. However, the latter is badly out of form and FE looks a touch too short, despite his record. Two that catch my eye given their unexposed record at the track are both Mr Strutter and Fink Hill. Mr Strutter being by Sir Prancealot looks to be the one today, particularly at the prices and with the slightly more solid sire profile. That being said, Fink Hill is 1/1 at the track and there is potentially more to come. Mr Strutter 0.5 E/W and Fink Hill 0.25 Win (saver). Bets: 11:50 - 0.5 pt win on both Vivernus (9/2) and God Willing (11/1) 12:20 - 0.5 pt EW on It's how we roll (11/1) 12:50 - 0.25 pt EW on both Emilene (14/1) and African Showgirl (15/2) 13:20 - None 13:50 - 0.5 pt EW on Temple of Wonder (9/1) 14:20 - None 14:50 - 1 pt win on Divine Call, 0.1 Revese Forecast Divine Call / Archimedes 15:20 - 0.5 pt EW on Mr Strutter, 0.25 pt Win on Fink Hill (saver).
https://www.flatstats.co.uk/blog/aw/colts_vs_fillies.html For the record, I don't think it makes any sense in handicaps, horses are getting their marks for past runs and that mark should be what they are competitive off with regards to handicaps moving forward. I think it is more to do with physiology, I'd expect that the more powerful horses are generally geldings and that is what is needed on the all weather surfaces. Plenty of fillies and mares win!
Just thought of a potential problem with the sire stats. It's good to know if a sire's progeny are winning but, of course, there could be more recent stallions that haven't yet appeared on the stats but could look attractive when they have had enough winners/runners to be included. Might be worth looking at sires of some of the winners/unlucky losers to see if we can spot the next sire to figure well on these stats From what I have read Southwell is more like a track with heavy going and should not favour hold up horses as it is difficult to accelerate on the track. So should we also be considering sires whose progeny do well on galloping tracks when the going is soft/heavy?
