Another day and another Southwell card. This time I am doing the thread a little differently, including keeping tally of bets and stakes/returns. 11:55 - See attached table Race which doesn't seem to have much pace about it (Pace indicator of 4.7 is very low) and it might be the race to take by the scruff of the neck and make all from a low to medium draw. The problem is who will be likely to do that? Coviglia is likely to be up with the pace (although doesn't normally lead) and has decent sire stats. Break The Silence should also sit prominently and has the course form, and probably will be more suited to the way this race will be run than he has with his recent course visits. Mametz Wood is very similar too. I'd have those three against the field. 1pt Mametz Wood @ 4/1 BOG 1pt Coviglia @ 9/1 BOG 1pt Break The Silence @ 10/1 BOG
13:30 A race which has a bit more pace to it, and it has plenty of sires who do well at Southwell. This race looks to revolve around whether Angel Palinas will be suited by dropping down in trip and facing a sterner early test of speed. I don't think he will and that sets it up to be an interesting betting heat. Black Salt is the one for me, he sat off the pace when he sluiced up here on his penultimate run and did so from a wide draw. If he avoids the kickback and runs to that form, then he is a massive shout at 4/1 Black Salt 3pt @ 4/1
14:00 Another race which looks to be run at a searching end to end gallop. This should set the race up to be won by something that can sit not too far off the pace and stay on the best. This perhaps makes betting in the race difficult as the ones towards the head of the market are front runners. This is a no bet race for me, but if something wins well from the front, then it could be strong form to follow.
14:30 One of the worst nurseries you are likely to see, but should be run at a fair gallop for the grade. On sire statistics we have a few standout horses in Lethal Laura, Cognac Blue and Ever Rock whose sires all hit over 25% wins on the surface. The former has the best sire statistics but the worst form of the three whilst Cognac Blue is far too short in the market for his true chance. Hence why Ever Rock is the selection at a very fair 15/2 which is fair enough EW. He ran a fair race in a nursery last time out and the surface here should suit. 1pt EW Ever Rock @ 15/2 BOG
15:00 All about Party Rock for the sire Mayson, he should race prominently and can improve for the switch to this surface. 2pt win @ 5/1 BOG
15:30 Another strong pace is likely here and there are two runners who really interest me. Bold Spirit is one and One More Chance is the other. The former has been beaten a long way this season, but has the form in the book to be very nicely handicapped now and the latter is well drawn and ran a really taking race last time out. 1pt Bold Spirit @ 10/1 2pt One More Chance @ 9/2
Hopefully the tables attached are viewable. They show the horse, its sire and sire strike rate (anything over 15% is coloured green as a positive - more impressive when over 25%) a pace indicator (from my own studies, the indicator on ATR site and also timeform notes where available) and comments/previous handicap marks/odds as relevant. The pace indicator is taken from the indicator (added up and divided by number of runners) and when combined with a view on how many front runners will take each other on (horses rated 8 or above generally will try to lead) give an indication to the strength of pace likely to be seen. Anything under 5.5 is very slow/easy lead and can give front runners an even bigger advantage. Tomorrow I've staked 13pts, it looks a really interesting days racing and these races have very interesting angles to them.
Naas, Have enjoyed reading this thread as it in line with the way I approach Southwell too. I like to bet in races that have stats that can distinguish runners from each other. Races where several horses have strong Southwell records, I find more difficult because I'm not as hot on the formlines as I need to be to read them. Today I came up with the following: 11:55 Dashing Poet - good record overall and back to to last winning mark, but importantly for Southwell, is by Poet's Voice, who has a handsome strike rate (17%) and 1.3 A/E meaning his progeny are usually under bet. I will also have a saver on Shearian who had a great record here. The rest of the horses are generally untried on the surface but also generally not by great Southwell sires. The exceptions are probably Enzo and Coviglia, who I may top up the tricast bets with. 12:25 Lambrini Lullaby - I really like the use of sire stats in races such as this. LL is by Captain Gerrard, who is 16% and 1.2 A/E on the surface. All other horses are by sires with worse A/E and Strike rate and with the exception of the top 2 in the market are making their racecourse debuts. As a result, I'm happy to side with one with at least some experience and that is LL. Wind storm and Point Zero are both dangers, but at the prices, I'm happy to gloss over them even though both Karl Burke and Mick Abbleby are no strangers to success on the sand. I just much prefer the unexposed angle with Lambrini Lullaby. 13:00 A race where half of the field have significant fibresand experience, The Lock MAster and Luv U Whatever could return to form at any time on the surface but for the time being I'm happy to pass them over. The sires of Forewarming, Azari and King of Naples have a pretty miserable record on the surface so I'm happy to pass those over. Which leaves Star Ascending, Di's Gift and Mr Carbonation. Eddie Greatrix rides the course fairly well and has a good record teaming up with Jennie Candish, so lets hope today is the day Star Ascending finds a return to form. 13:30 Not a race I liked the look of too much but I found Kupa River very interesting on a number of angles, not least big bad bobs record on the sand. 16% and 1.4 A/E is good and I thought he offered some value against the Mayson runner, Angel Palanas. 14:00 I always find Ivan Furtado frustrating but he seems to have the odd winner here at Southwell and I find Eternal Sun interesting here. By Southwell wonder sire Mayson, she is bred to go well here and I'll be having a moderate e/w bet. Also by the southwell super sire is Warrior's valley and he has an appearing profile and will be a saver if he happens to be tuned up on his return. 14:30 - Not a race I wanted to get involved with given the number of untried horses on the surface, that being said there are some very solid sire profiles here, namely, Ever Rock by Society Rock, Cognac Blue by Mayson, Lethal Laura by Lethal Force and Melgate Magic by Harbour Watch. So plenty go watch for in this race. 15:00 - A similar story here to the previous race, but Rock Party appeals for the sire stats. 15:30 - Tricky race and I haven't had much time to spend looking
I also like this thread. Personally, I believe that the factors being taken into account should lead to bigger profits for the patient backer. In addition to those factors what attracts me is that the AW is much more reliable from a form angle because there is less chance of training interruptions. Provided they train on the surface they are running on and/or show their best on their home gallops on the same surface. It would be nice to know which trainers have such gallops and horses that perform better on them at home. There is also the added advantage that running below form on turf/other surfaces can bring down their handicap mark. From a betting angle I think the AW is a safer bet taking account of all the factors mentioned in this thread, and being patient
Thanks Nass, even better there with the Southwell wonder sire, Mayson. As the main man says, you can take that to the bank
For the record, moderate ew bets on both Lethal Laura and Ever Rock. The other 2 I noted are too short
Also, most of the racing is on ATR so plenty of videos available to spot if your fancied horse was unlucky/not trying/coming back to form etc etc. The other thing I would be keen to look at, before plunging, would be relative race times at the track. If the "selection" had produced relatively fast times with bigger weights, without necessarily winning, that would be icing on the cake for me.
1pt Mametz Wood @ 4/1 BOG - 2nd 1pt Coviglia @ 9/1 BOG - unplaced 1pt Break The Silence @ 10/1 BOG - unplaced Black Salt 3pt @ 4/1 - Won 1pt EW Ever Rock @ 15/2 BOG - unplaced Party Rock - 2pt win @ 5/1 BOG - unplaced 1pt Bold Spirit @ 10/1 - unplaced 2pt One More Chance @ 9/2 - 2nd So 13pts staked - 15pts returned - 2pt profit A close day and didn't do as well as On The Bridle but a decent enough day and some interesting results moving forward. Two more days at Southwell this week, already looks an interesting day Thursday with some very interesting sires with entries.
Nass, Ron, On The Bridle: a quick supportive note to applaud the existence and purpose of this thread. I think I mentioned to Nass a while back that about 90% of all my own winter betting is at Southwell, and I'm convinced that your methods and approach are sound. I've a truckload of data of my own, which has become too intractable to reduce to simple rules or formulae but, if any of you have the time, I'd be very interested to hear views on draw-bias (particularly at 5f) and trainers' repetitive entry-patterns, especially with their 2yos. And a particular chapeau to Nass, who has persevered with his ideas and approaches across years when AW racing was much abused on this forum (dross, rubbish, sandrats, etc etc) often by people who should have known better. Take a bow, kid.
Throw in the sectionals that are appearing through ATR for more of the AW tracks too, and the racing seems much more accessible to the punter. Does anyone know if and how things will change with the new TV deal?
Very kind old boy. Appreciate the message and your input with this thread. I think the key with racing and betting is to almost separate your likes from what you see as rational in terms of betting. I’m a massive NH fan as you all know, but for proper betting it is very hard to follow as you have a lot of angles to cover. It can be the ground, fences/hurdles, direction, jockeys, handicap, speed of race and trainer form to but name a few. At Southwell you can reduce the imponderables and get to formlines and video watching much more smoothly. The example I’d use is a 5f sprint, you don’t need to worry about the ground, direction, speed of race and you can probably use trainer form/handicap/course form to narrow down a biggish field to a handful of runners at the most. Draw bias is an interesting one, as I had a long held assumption that low was best on the five furlong straight course, but this winter it doesn’t seem to be playing out that way. I would say that the draw wouldn’t put me off but if you slightly miss the break you want to be finding a clear route through the field. (Saw this yesterday when one came down the near rail) As such stalls 1/2 and highest two, seem good for horses who don’t dominate from the front. In terms of repeat entries, that intrigues me, not something I’ve looked at to be honest.
