Sky Sports say Bristol City are underperforming in the Championship; Leeds United are top Broadcaster says Robins should be fifth according to Expected Goals statistics. Bristol City are one of the three most under-performing sides in the league according to Sky Sports. The broadcaster reports that Brentford, Bristol City and Millwall as the three teams who should be higher in the Championship table when analysing each teams's expected goals return this season. Expected goals is a statistic that looks at how likely a team is to score from a chance, using the location of the shot, whether it is a header or with the foot and whether it is hit first time or not, and how the chance was set-up. It gives more detail than just counting the shots a team has. And on that score the Robins should be seven places better off than they are currently doing: and lie fifth in the league - but only if the league was ordered on goal difference. And Lee Johnson's side have conceded 18 times while on average they should have conceded 17.24 times - little difference. Leeds United would top the table, narrowly ahead of Sheffield United, while Nottingham Forest are said to be the biggest over-achievers. Arguably the data could be interpreted as that Bristol City have not had the results that the Robins' performances have deserved this season though. Also, that while the performances are there then the results should soon come for the Robins as long as the team keeps performing as they have done. City are said to have an Expected Goals tally of 21.13 goals this season according to Opta data. In fact they have scored 20 times in the league so far. https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/sky-sports-say-bristol-city-2192255
'And Lee Johnson's side have conceded 18 times while on average they should have conceded 17.24 times - little difference.' Oh dear .76 out on average what a catastrophe.
I believe with the chances we are creating, we are one decent striker away from being in the top 3. Getting that decent striker is another issue!!
This 'expected goals' statistic seems to be quite in vogue, though the headline is a bit misleading - it's suggesting we should have scored more because of the high number of chances created, so perhaps the better interpretation is that we're not converting the chances our good performances are deserving of. It's probably fair to say that Diedhiou, Taylor & Weimann all haven't been consistent enough. They all have the potential to be threats at this level, but someone needs to up their final product and cement their place.
THIS is a bit like the "Loch Ness monster saga" "expected goals", you may have noticed that all of a sudden the dozens of programmes made, countries sending identical boats [ more than a dozen ] to patrol the loch to trap "nessie" in their radar etc etc etc suddenly stopped. A tv debate with scientists [ so called loch ness specialists/ photo analysis experts and a bona fide professor of ancient history ] sounded the death nell ! After much debate over photo's hoax's and one upmanship, it finally was passed to the professor, [a massively respected and writer of many papers on pre history] professor " which of the 2 or 3 creatures that the panel seem to agree is the most likely?" His very politely delivered reply could only be translated as " what a load of round hairy things and jibberish I HAVE JUST SAT THROUGH! none of them have a clue what they are on about, save maybe the photo analists …. those creatures died out millions of years before the loch was formed when the final part of the north of Scotland joined / crashed into the southern part after its migration [ plate techtonics end result of Pangea ) from CANADA! The final part/ 5 -10 minutes of the programme was very quiet !!!!!!!! the point is " the Expected goals ….. is a ....phraseology / logarithm." that only means "that point in time" so any team will in theory only get 1 opportunity for this to apply! it is a bit like saying "they could have scored 3 or 4 today" had they scored the first of these then every thing goes back to ground zero …. they, opposition, get the ball from a different position and what transpires from there takes you to the next stop point! …… other than what actually happens is merely supposition! However, as fans we do not need fancy logarithms to see we can do better if our players score more! it is not rocket science ………...
If we are honest, we don't have the striker that's required to put so many chances away.......IMO that needs to be our No1 priority come January
Agree with the above and I'd add midfielder as well. It's like we have the depth of a really good squad now, but without the spine that would need. I think at centre back we're pretty much alright now, but a top midfielder, striker and maybe keeper would take us right up there. Easier said than done mind you!
Another interpretation I've seen is that we are creating a lot of chances but they aren't good chances. So while we've had a lot of shots they've been from difficult positions, not easy open goals. Not sure really how they compile expected goals so hard to comment.
