I'll post a few clips along the way as the race closes in on us. First up, the Aidan O'Brien trained trained YUCATAN who heads the betting at 7-2. This slashing win in the G2 2400m Herbert Power Stakes a couple of weeks ago won him this honour. Drawn the outside.
The second favourite is the Appleby trained, Godolphin owned, 8-1 chance, CROSS COUNTER. He won't have a lead up run going into the race, but has worked well at Werribee. His G2 Great Voltiger second indicated that the distance will be right up his alley. Rekindling was the same age in winning last year. Who ever recorded the clip below forgot to factor in the sound. Cross Counter is in the all blue and settles about fourth of fifth, then finishes along the rail.
9-1 chance MAGIC CIRCLE is next in the betting. Trained by Ian Williams in Birmingham, he too will hit the race without an Australian run under his belt. Although he's a little long in the tooth, he comes into the race in a purple patch of form. I can't get a full replay, only this small news piece. Just scroll down. The second placed Red Verdon is 20-1 in Cup betting. https://www.not606.com/threads/melbourne-cup-3200m-tuesday-november-6.368538/#post-12251194
Next is AVILIUS at 12-1. Although beaten 7.75L in the Cox Plate (10F, a distance much too short for him) behind Winx, he ran on nicely. Before that he narrowly on the G3 Bart Cummings at Flemington over 2500m. He's won 3 of his 4 races in Oz. Before coming to Australia, Avilius ran second, beaten 4.5L behind Cracksman in the 2400m G2 Prix Niel last year. He's in the Godolphin all blue and settles mid field on the fence. A nice run by the third horse Yogi (in yellow) but probably won't get a run. 100-1 for the Cup.
Another 12-1 chance is the John Gosden trained 2018 Ebor winner MUNTAHAA. If he can run anywhere near that form, he must be in with a real shout. He too is doing well at Werribee. The stable think he has the 3200m in him, but are a little worried about tactical speed. As the field goes hard early then drops anchor mid race before switching on again with about the 1,000m to run, they worry about how quickly he can change gears. They say they are quietly confident though. Muntahaa stays on the far rail after they jump away.
Next in the betting is the 15-1 chance is the 2400m Caulfield Cup winner BEST SOLUTION. The Saeed Bin Suroor trained horse arrived here with back to back G1 scalps hanging freshly from his belt. After winning both the Preis Von Baden and the Grosser Preis Von Berlin, he promptly made off with the Caulfield Cup. He's dawn four from the outside and in the Godolphin blue. He'll carry top weight on Tuesday. Aiden O'Brien's Cliffsofmoher (all dark blue) ran a nice third here and will be second top weight in the Cup. Both must be considered.
MAGIC CIRCLE has improved beyond all recognition since changing yards. They have kept him back for this and he has an OUTSTANDING chance!
MARMELO is a 16-1 shot who finished midfield in last year's cup. The grinding stayer ran an honest second last up in the G2 Kergorlay when favourite. He'd won the race in 2017. Marmelo has had 4 starts, all in group or listed events since the cup last year, winning and being placed second in the others. He's probably too good to be dismissed out of hand. Kergorlay run. Yellow and blue with blue cap.
YOUNGSTAR. 16-1. A gallant 4 year old mare who ran on well in the Caulfield Cup. Settled in the last 4 and came widest in the straight. Her rider gives her an outstanding shot at winning the cup. You can check her run in the Best Solution film. 2 runs back she ran a wonderful second to Winx. Two tone blue with red cap.
FINCHE. 20-1. Has been a regular Group contestant in France for the last two years, winning at G2 & 3. At only Australian run finished 3rd to another Cup contender RUNAWAY who's 33-1 shot. Geelong Cup form has held up well in the past. Runaway leads throughout. Finche is in the green, pink sash and cap.
VENTURA STORM. 33-1. He's an interesting horse. Two runs back in the Caulfield Cup, he was slightly held up 300m out,but when clear, ran the second fastest final furlong. Then last run in Moonee Valley Cup he had an easy trip then out stayed them in the run to the post. Green with blue stripes.
SOUND CHECK. 33-1. A German raider who's only run here was a midfield finish behind Best Solution in the Caulfield Cup. He was 10L adrift when they crossed the line. He was deep throughout and deep on the bend. The interesting thing about him is that he was beaten under a half length by Best Solution in the G1 GROSSER PREIS VON BERLIN just before he left for Australia. Sound Check is in white with red cap, while Best Solution is in the all blue.
i have a question: does anyone know,what happened to HAMADA??i thought,he had a serious chance in the melbourne cup,but seems to have disappeared somehow..
A small ew speculation on Nakeeta @ 50/1. Ran well in this last year finishing 5th from a lousy draw.
The Favourite Yucatan is now a drifter in the market after drawing barrier 23. $4.20 out to $5.50. With the rain on the way, the track may be down graded from a Good 3, to slow for tomorrow, which has brought support for Magic Circle. He taken over second favourite from Cross Counter. Magic Circle, $9.50 into $8.50. He's won 6 of 12 with 2 placings in the soft conditions. He's worked really well, but the 17 alley won't help though.
Magic Circle. Owner's thoughts on the 17 barrier: "We are not the quickest away anyway and I would have been worried with a low draw because we would have been shuffled right to the back," he said. "At least from where we are we have other options, so I'm quite happy. I'm not disappointed." Yucatan. Part owner: "I must say I'm of the view that barriers don't matter in this race," Williams said. You've got five furlongs before you have to turn. They sort themselves out by the time they get there." A Prince Of Arran. Charlie Fellowes: "We would have looked to be a little further in," he said. "But it's fine — he'll stay wide, slot in somewhere, stay where he is until the 200m, pop out and win!"
A lot of horses have not even run over the distance let alone won over it. It is conceivable that one of the class 12f horses (ie been running in class 12f races without necessarily winning) will appreciate the extra half a mile. If so their turn of foot could prove decisive. On the other hand, with the ground softening it could rule those out. Seems a bit of a lottery to me Cyc.
I'd call it a nightmare Ron. The only good thing about it is the nice return you'll get if you can find the winner.
