With me not punting a great deal these days I do not take as much interest in the major overseas flat races as I once did. For the forthcoming 'Arc' I feel yesterday's performance by Enable will have plenty of English and Irish based trainers searching for alternative targets of which there are many during October and November. That said, Aidan O'Brien will have at least one runner and the terms of the race will encourage trainers of above average three year old fillies to give it a go. With the above in mind, and with solely punting returns in mind, I would be looking at older French colts at around 25/1 to 33/1 in current UK lists who might be good enough to finish second or third. To close we have been very lucky in recent years to see three great fillies, Danedream, Treve and Enable.
On that occasion he was definitely not happy. Probably annoyed with the jockey on Poet's Word for making them both have a hard race when they could have had easy races and still had the 1,2
Arc Trials Day has (rather predictably) cut up badly with alternatives at Leopardstown and Doncaster. Lah Ti Dar is going to Town Moor on Saturday for the St Leger, so she will not be out to avenge her mum, beaten by Zarkava in 2008 and disqualified when winning the Prix Vermeille in 2009. Amazingly, Aidan O’Brien has never won this race but has two 3yo fillies, Bye Bye Baby and Magic Wand, in what looks a Group 1 race in name only. There are just six left in the Prix Foy: no Defoe, no Cracksman. The Japanese runner Clincher faces some familiar names in Waldgeist, Capri, Cloth Of Stars and Talismanic. In the Prix Niel, my Derby horse Young Rascal is finally back on the track facing just six rivals including unbeaten Brundtland for Charlie Appleby and Hunting Horn for Aidan O'Brien. At least the weather forecast is set fair...
It's a wonder you get up in the morning qm with everything being so predictable. I've saw you calling things predictable all through the thread without actually making any predictions.
I have been to Arc Trails Day on a number of occasions – both at Longchamp and Chantilly – and the same thing happens every year. At the first forfeit stage, Ballydoyle had five left in the Prix Niel, three left in the Prix Foy and four in the Prix Vermeille. The ones that have defected are in the St Leger or on Irish Champions Day duty. Ballydoyle do that every year: entry money is pocket change to Coolmore. Godolphin had their St Leger horses double entered in the Niel as well. After the second forfeit / supplementary stage, the fields for the Foy and Niel are six and seven respectively and the Vermeille (worth four times as much) is ten. Study Of Man has gone to the Irish Champion from the Niel, so the ‘will he stay?’ question is not going to be answered until October 7th. I have made 24 posts to this thread before this one and used the word “predictable” three times and the word “predictably” once, all in phrases immediately before stating the latest ante post odds changes following a significant race. Do you get up in the morning exaggeratedly? Predictions? Clearly you missed post 30 where I stated that I had backed Enable ante post. I did mention that again in post 92. I was wrong in post 92 when I suggested that Bateel would be the only filly I named that would show up for the Vermeille: Magic Wand is the only one left.
I am surprised. I would have thought that a quarter was a far better exaggeration of a sixth than a fifth. When referring to an historical event, it seems perfectly acceptable in English to state that something that one would have expected to happen was “predictable”. Predictably the sun set tonight and it is predictable that the sun will rise in the morning. Were it not to do so that would be considered sufficiently noteworthy that it would be news.
Can only go on what connections say stick. Although should know with gosden horses it's often the opposite of what they say.
Obrien is far from perfect but at least he's not in the game of putting out a constant stream of false info to get a price on his horses like a low level crook. Last minute change of heart, prices taken then publicly confirmed. Could name another 5 times this season alone that punters have been put away on high profile horses from this yard, it's their m o. Lah Ti Dar set for St Leger after Lloyd-Webber change of heart Connections of the daughter of Dubawi, who runs in the colours of Lord Andrew and Lady Madeleine Lloyd-Webber, had warned she could head to Longchamp on Sunday for the Prix Vermeille. But strong support in recent days suggested the St Leger was Lah Ti Dar's target, and Gosden confirmed on Wednesday: "She goes for the Leger
The Calyx/Legends of War Coventry Saga Legends Of War Not In The Coventry Did Gosden make any announcement about this or was it just a case of punters only finding out when it wasn't declared? Horse has been weak ever since Calyx appeared on the scene but everything I had read would have suggested the horse was still going to run. Either way a nice result for bookmakers before the meeting has even started. - Not a whisper or a murmuring from Gosden (not even now) or the racing journos, but the Exchange told a different story he'd be missing - he's not declared for this race. -Yes, there is a Sun article dated 10 June suggesting all systems go.No doubt we will still get some media brown-noser going on about how helpful Gosden is sooner rather than later. The Cracksman King George Compendium John Gosden likely to bypass King George date with Cracksman Tue 10 Jul 2018 Cracksman declared a non-runner in today’s King George at Ascot after trainer John Gosden walks the track The trainer has withdrawn his Group 1 winner after lack of rainfall overnight 28th July 2018 Intended runner if sufficient rain with antepost punters put away 2 weeks previously His Ascot advice for punters was good Gosden says ground will suit better, but Without Parole shouldn't be favourite wins ST James Palace Stream of Stars best chance of the week 12/1 into 5/2 fav, finished 7th of 12 btn 15L I saw an interview with him before a race at the craven meeting, was a listed class abdullah 3yo, small field two horse race in betting, cant remember the name of it and he said the ground was against it, beat the fav a neck. Thats off the top of my head this season.
Thought I would get it in before someone else pointed it out since I had referenced that post. If we all posted admitting when we got it wrong, half of the daily thread would be folks posting to apologise when the horse they tipped was beaten. That would be me about eighty per cent of the time on the horses I flag up! Doomsday is 29th March 2019 if you believe Mark Carney...
The result on Town Moor saw some totally inescapable changes made to the market for the Arc: Enable still remains a best-priced 11/8 as she was this morning and there has been no change to 11/2 Sea Of Class or 8/1 Cracksman. Vanquished St Leger favourite Lah Ti Dar was 20/1 but the bookies will now happily take 33/1. Winner Kew Gardens can still be had with Betway at 28/1, which is hardly a massive contraction from the 33/1 that was generally available pre-race. Have those bookie chappies come to the conclusion that neither of them will show up at Longchamp on 7th October? There has to be a real possibility that Lah Ti Dar will go for the fillies and mares race on Champions Day. Despite all the waffle from the ITV commentary team, I do not think this will go down as a great renewal of the St Leger. Aidan O’Brien concluded early in the season that he had no standout three year old at Ballydoyle; hence he has been running several horses in every Classic.
We have now seen all the 'trials' for the 'Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe' and are aware of the likely runners; or at least those at the top of the market. I wonder if you are willing to make a judgement on how the the PMU prices will stack up in mid to late afternoon on Sunday 7th October. Just a wee thought.
Afternoon folks Are there UK bookies on course come Arc day, as would rather punt in GBP or is it Euros and like it or lump it
Used to be just the Pari Mutuel however I have a vague memory of a wee stall offering UK wagering the year of 'Deep Impact'. I have also witnessed illegal betting with 'off duty' English bookies. If it is only the PMU then it will be Euros at starting prices. I remember a guy the year Salsabil won the Prix Marcel Boussac virtually greetin' as he thought he had a winner at, say 12.4 to 1, as opposed to the SP of about 2.8 to 1; it was a f****n' scream!
Hahahahha, thanks for the reply mate. Probably just leave it then just in case there is none and just do business as usual from me cellphone.
