Have always wondered if the moneyball approach would work in football. I don't think it would (well not like in baseball) as the game is too fluid and you couldn't just look at one stat and sign someone because of that. Apparently Brentford do something along moneyball lines, but I'm not sure exactly how their model works.
Indeed. However what they can do is give you a sense check of emotional perspectives, whether yours or other people's. So, reading on here that we were beyond awful is tempered by the fact that according to the BBC expected goals number it was Everton 1.5 Saints 1.75. Maybe it wasn't quite so appalling. Vin
Well I won't waste my time reading it. I can usually judge how a game has gone just by watching the match.
Yeah, and I think that the xG tells the story fairly well for both of our games. Depending on the margin, either Everton had marginally better chances or we did, with them playing better in the first half, and us in the second; xG reflects that. Against Burnley, they had a couple excellent chances, and we had a bunch of relatively marginal ones, making them the side more likely to score; xG reflects that.
Life is all about perspective. Makes sense to me to always focus on the positives. You live in your reality by all means - and I’ll live in mine. Neither of us can alter yesterday’s result, but I think I prefer my way of dealing with it. I see no reason not to hope for an entertaining game and three points next Saturday.
Yes, but I expect that Ings’ miss off Pickford’s drop is fairly heavily weighted. You’d pretty much expect a goal there at least half the time. So if the difference is basically the Ings miss and what xG is telling you is “We should have drawn because of a lucky blunder by Pickford” should that be factored into a team performance? Can you say we truly “deserved” that goal?
Yes. "Lucky blunders" are often (not always) the result of pressure by the attacking side. That particular one resulted from a common tactic, the hard blast from outside the box (Cedric) with an attacker ready to pounce on any rebound. They are a part of the game; you'll see a good chance exactly like that every week in one or other game. Why would you disregard them? By the way, did you take the same approach and disregard Walcott's miss? It made up a large part of Everton's xG rating. And, you'll note, I've been clear. I don't look at them to the exclusion of all else. They just part of the rich tapestry of football and occasionally they educate. Vin
The football in the first half needs to be better. Hughes can only be credited with correcting errors for so long before we start getting annoyed he is making those errors in the first place. Not his fault his winger and centerback got crocked prior to the game, but he won't have that excuse vs Leicester. Time to get out of the traps without a stumble...
Which ever way you look at it , whether you moan like **** or highlight the positives , WE LOST. How ever long you choose to do each of those is up to you but the outcome will be the same. Time to move on to next weekend...
Yeah you're right we lost by the odd goal to a considerably better team than us. Time to move on as you say
