Firstly, apologies that this a slight misnomer in that it will be more of an approach than a tightly defined system. The purpose of the approach is to try to identify horses that look capable of winning easily in the hope that the strike rate should be at least 1 in 3 I've called it Time Plus because it is initially time based but further criteria will be added. I haven't got very far with the criteria but in broad terms I will be looking only at flat races of 12f or less and will be looking at races that have been run in a time significantly faster than other races at the course on the same day. At this stage I am thinking I might want to restrict the tracks to what I might describe as class 1 tracks. Alternatively the term "significant" may be defined differently depending on the track Having identified a race that appears to qualify, I will then look at races on other days over the same track and distance where the going is identical, to check if the race still qualifies. I will then look at the race analysis to see if the winner won easily or had to struggle, how it ran the race from start to finish etc. If it appears to have far more in hand than the winning distance indicates I will then take into account the weight it was carrying and try to assess what time it could have (potentially) achieved carrying 10 stone (say). If this looks relatively very quick then I will make a note for when this horse runs again over the same track (or similar) on similar going in a class equal or lower. I will also look at other horses in the race to see if any were desperately unlucky etc. If the horse has run at a Class 1 track (eg where group races are run) I will compare their time to the time of a group horse over the same C&D and rate it accordingly. When the horse is declared in a suitable race I will then quickly review the other horses in the race to see if any of them come close in terms of times achieved. The next stage will be to watch recordings of the horse's most recent race (and maybe some others) to get a better feel of its potential. The jockey booking will have to be the same or one who seems to provide additional advantage. Before placing the bet I would want to watch the lead up to the race to see if there is anything to increase or reduce confidence I know there are some who do not regard times as very useful but I firmly believe that if a horse has achieved a fast time, relative to other horses then, regardless of anything else, it has proved it can carry a certain weight and get from A to B in that time. In simple terms that means that for something to beat it, it must be able to get from the same A to B in a quicker time. Added to that, if the horse in question achieved its time easily and/or despite problems in running etc, then it is probably capable of achieving an even quicker time and provides a bit of contingency. However, if any of the opposition appears to have a lot of scope for improvement and/or is a significant market mover then, depending on the odds I would either dutch or leave the race alone as I do appreciate that just because a horse hasn't run a fast time, doesn't mean it can't The horses I select must be able to hold a good position in a fast run race (for its class) and possess a sharp turn of foot; alternatively it could be a relentless galloper that can run the finish out of horses that rely purely on a sprint finish. Just hope I don't end up with long odds on shots Clearly this will be time consuming so I'm not sure when I might start but I've posted it whilst it is clear in my mind and will refine it if I have any further thoughts, or as a result of any feedback. Hopefully I will get to the point where I can start to post my selections and a profit and loss account Now I can go to bed
Sounds like you have your work cut out but it will be intresting to see your results. The best of luck with it Ron
Just done a random selection and as a result have a refinement already. That is to look at the performances of horses that were well backed against the horses I have noted This is only part of the refinement process but I randomly selected Goodwood and found a potential horse to note by the name of Main Edition. This 2yo has won 2 class 5 races with a fair amount in hand, one on soft and one on gf. Decent times. On debut beat a horse that had finished second in a class 4. Is entered in big races later in the season. Should have no trouble winning a class 5 but worth a look if stepped up (which is more than likely judging by her entries) Trainer Mark Johnston Owner Mr Saif Ali Pedigree ZOFFANY (IRE) MAINE LOBSTER (USA) WOODMAN (USA) When she is entered again I will have a look at the form of the horses she beat to see if I am still interested, and of course the achievements of the opposition and, on the day, any significant market moves
christ ron , you won't have any life if you start following these horses and all the connected races !!
Could be best looking at the all weather Ron, not so many coarses but a load of data to go at. Good luck with it. Sent from my SM-G960F using Tapatalk
I won't be looking at every race. I don't expect to spend much more time than I do already, looking at every race (albeit briefly) for competitions. Initially, I will only look at Class 1 tracks and it doesn't take long to skim through the race times with most races being discarded at a glance. Races at any other tracks will just be those I come across in passing. I will miss loads of potential "notebook" horses but that doesn't bother me as it isn't a rigid system. The main thing will be to assess the chances of my noted horses (which will go into My Timeform tracker) the next time they run. In a way I'm reducing the number of races I examine when looking for something to "back" and I'm sure many races will be quickly eliminated due to one or more of the opposition. I'm out quite a lot (often all day during the football season here) so this approach fits nicely within my time schedule as I can pluck out horses to note retrospectively and, when they are declared, do race analysis in the evenings. I should be OK rudey
At the end of the day NDS, I might do just that. I think the AW is more reliable and as you say, more data. Also more chance of it being televised on ATR which also means the videos are freely available. The main problem is opposition making their AW débuts
Hugh Taylor takes very seriously time for his tips, or at least he had it some time ago, he's said it once. I don't know if this data is good or bad.
Don't speak a word of Welsh, but my old headmaster was a Welsh scholar in his own right. Took a group of us on a field trip to Pwlheli and surrounding area once, long ago, we were away about a week. Was great!
Brought a 2 bed g2 listed cottage/ruin 5 mins from aberaeron absolutly beautiful village and you could be anywhere in the world on a hot day on the beaches there. Hence i have been learning welsh . Or trying i dont know who is back to front though them or us
Lovely part of the world Uncle, good for you. I have a good friend who owns a beach house (shack, think shabby chic) at Poppit Sands and we spend a week there every year and absolutely love it. Usually stop in Aberaeron for chips on way home as we did on Saturday evening. I wish I was still there to be honest. Good luck with the system Ron. Are the advertised times reliable these days?
I would have thought more reliable Chan. Do you know something? I think they now show, for some races, the sectional speeds, stride lengths and strides per minute (or something like that). I'm sure these could be utilised to some advantage but haven't looked into it.
Was just down the coast in Borth on Saturday Evening in the Vic , what a sunset from the bar looking over the beach. Staying in Aberaeron this weekend some Fab bars and people there .
As that little Spanish fella in Faulty Towers was fond of saying I know nothing Ron . I was just wondering how reliable the timekeeping was. Having thought about it there is no reason for flat racing not to be extremely precise. NH maybe a little bit more tricky. Is the key to using systems involving times is to discount those races that aren't truly run races?
