Match Day Thread Manchester United V Liverpool

That's the end of that idea then.

 

We could just guess

 

I'm going 3 and you're out.

 

that's what all statisticians do

sniff.

i'm not sure if they just guess form the start or just hope their samples are representative of the population being studied.

but guessing is basically what goes on.

 

I reckon that lot are secretly ****ting it about Saturday. I want us to work it right ****ing up them

 

its like this:

Sample = 5 games or 10 gmaes
Population = 38 games

Samples have statistics
Populations have parameters

If i take the average points per game over a sample of 5 games i can make an inference about the population of 38 games.

eg.

city win 5 in a row. PPG = 3.. i could infer they will get 114 points in the season

as sample sizes gets larger more of population is sampled and we should get a more accurate inference. 78/29 = 2.69ppg. = 102 points.

which is why statistics are never anything but a guess. its the context from the stat that might lead you to determine if it does represent the population or not.

 

Ive done the last how ever many since our last defeat so check when that was

 

Dunno, I think they had such a long period of success that they think that their rightful place is at the top - that the last few seasons have been a bit of a blip and normal service will soon be resumed.
The media were convinced of that too, until City leaving everyone in their wake this season has given them pause for thought.

 

Couldn't help yourself, could you?

 

Even then just looking at PPG is too high level.

if you really wanted to be nerdy then split it it by Home and away, or Home and away against top half and bottom half, or top 6 and the rest etc.

Can then factor in if its after a CL game what the results look like as well etc.

If could be bothered could shove all that into spreadsheet to work out.. but that’s my day job so **** doing that away from Work

 

indeed.

it just goes to show you can make stats to infer anything you want if people don't challenge the validity of the sample.

75% of people on here never check.

 

I reckon we'll remain the only team to beat them this season. The mancs are quietly running scared

 

We have been on a good run lately, so we are due a loss.

 

Couple of United fans on Twitter last night... while 2-0 down tbf but still funny...

 

Is this the reverse jinx strategy, or are you just being genuinely totally pessimistic?

 

Or you could just enjoy it...

 

Thats dull
#mathgeek

 

I think exactly the same. Mourinho will be cagey and will want to control our front three leaving them with very little space. He will immediately change his strategy once he concedes. If we concede the first goal they’ll go 100% defensive to defend that lead.

A point at their place will not be too bad. Without going hung ho, I think we shouldn’t change our usual system just because we are playing them. Let them worry about us and see where that takes us. Our attack is our strongest asset and we simply do not know how to play a cagey game.

Not that we are comparing ourselves to Palace, but going 1-0 up early will force Mourinho to play a more attacking game and this may not be the game we want them to play at their home. Ideally we score the only goal of the match in the 90th minute!

 

As you alluded to, it's absolutely crucial we don't concede a goal first