Relagation Analysis

Basically, a schedule analysis of all the teams from 10th down which could conceivably be pulled into the relegation fight.

The numbers are the average points/match hauls of their remaining opponents...the lower the number, the better. For the sake of comparison, the average PL team has garnered 1.36 points/match, so anything below that represents a relatively favourable schedule.

Included is the average points needed for the team to reach 38 points, as that feels like it ought to be a pretty good gauge of safety this season.


Bournemouth - 7 home matches, 6 away. 0.77 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.25.
Average opponent away: 1.29
Average opponent overall: 1.26.

Shorter version: it'd be really, really surprising if Bournemouth got dragged into it. Their schedule is quite favourable, and in 9th they're not far from safety.


Watford - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.22.
Average opponent away: 1.63.
Average opponent overall: 1.41.

Watford has a sizable home/road split, so the recipe is simple: win some of their comparatively easy home matches and they're safe. Slip up and they're going to be sucked back into it, because those away days are brutal. For added difficulty, they have been the worst home team in the Premier League to date.


West Ham United - 7 home, 6 away. 0.85 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.49.
Average opponent away: 1.49.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.

I realize that the generally accepted logic is that West Ham is too good to go down. But man, they still have eight remaining matches against teams in the vaunted single digits. Part of their recent uptick in standing has owed to an easier schedule, but it's going to bare its teeth soon.


Crystal Palace - 7 home, 6 away. 0.92 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.45.
Average opponent away: 1.23.
Average opponent overall: 1.35.

Similar to us, a couple really important home matches and some very difficult ones, and they might need to take points away from home to breathe easily...but it's something they haven't done terribly well all year.


Newcastle - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.41.
Average opponent away: 1.39.
Average opponent overall: 1.40.

More away matches than home and a schedule slightly harder than average isn't a spectacular combination, but pretty close to par.


Brighton - 7 home, 6 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.43.
Average opponent away: 1.56.
Average opponent overall: 1.49.

Really difficult schedule, and like ours, it's heavily backloaded...next three are West Ham, Stoke and Swansea, after which it's exceedingly difficult. Brighton needs to do work quickly, or they're in major trouble.


Stoke - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.55.
Average opponent away: 1.30.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.

Stoke is the worst away team in the PL to date, and they have a hard remaining home schedule. They have to be rated among the favourites to go down.


Huddersfield - 6 home, 7 away. 1.08 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.18.
Average opponent away: 1.64.
Average opponent overall: 1.43.

Their next four home affairs are against Bournemouth, Swansea, Palace and Watford; it's a favourable situation, representing the softest home slate of any team...so long as they win some of them.


Southampton - 5 home, 8 away. 1.15 points/match needed
Average opponent home: 1.76.
Average opponent away: 1.19
Average opponent overall: 1.41.

Unique among the possible contenders, we only have five home matches left, and they're doozies. With 15 points away from the line where we can consider ourselves safe without real assistance, we will need to play to win on the road, as we have the largest split in opponent quality home and away of any side. There's no such thing as a good road draw against other relegation contenders...we need wins, even if that means risking losses.


Swansea - 6 home, 7 away. 1.15 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.27.
Average opponent away: 1.43.
Average opponent overall: 1.36.

With a schedule that skews a little easier at home, Swansea can dig out of this. Their home match against Stoke on the final day could be playing on everyone's second screen, too.


West Brom - 7 home, 6 away. 1.38 points/match needed.
Average opponent home: 1.35.
Average opponent away: 1.48.
Average opponent overall: 1.42.

Average schedule, but they basically have to be a top eight team from here on out. Not easily done.



So, basically: if you're looking at teams whose schedules work against them, ourselves (Southampton), Stoke and Brighton have to rate; thanks to tricky home fixtures (us, Stoke) or tricky fixtures overall (Brighton), there aren't many matches in which those three will go in favoured to take a win. Similarly, if West Ham slips up in their next couple, they could be sneaky picks to backslide into the bottom three, because their schedule is absolute hell from that point forward.

Pinched from the Saints board, with grateful thanks to Schad for his hard work, food for thought aye!........

 

Relegation

Just looked at some betting sites - Huddersfield are favourites for relegation at the moment.
We are second favourites at even odds - which I guess is an improvement on recent times where I assume we've been odds on to go down,

 

Good analysis, thanks.
The thing that annoys me most is the number of games we lost in the first half of the season to teams that were simply organised.
By Christmas any of our previous sides from the EPL days would have had at least 12 points more than Clement achieved. We were losing to teams that were quite dreadful.
Many of us we calling for Clement to be replaced in October (nice bloke who I wished had succeeded for his benefits well as ours, but had lost the plot).
At least Carlos had us looking organised but we need to find that little bit extra to beat teams who are at our end of the table - perhaps more difficult than beating those who think they just have to turn up to gain a win.

 

I do like some good stats. But with due respect to the Southampton fan who did the above, I think it's all a bit academic.

All the teams have 13 games left, either 6H 7A or vice versa apart from Southampton who have 5H 8A for reasons known only to the people who create the fixtures. That could put them at a disadvantage.

At the sharp end of the season the fixture schedule ("hard" or "easy" opponents) also tends to go out of the window. When teams are desperate and threatened with relegation they"re capable of beating anyone. Sunderland and Crystal Palace are good examples of this in recent seasons. How many times have we thought 'Chelsea v. Sunderland - that's zero points for Sunderland' only for them to pull off a win.

It will be more about motivation and belief. And PL experience. The change of manager for us has brought new hope and belief and I now think we will stay up. I fear for Brighton and Huddersfield who are slowly sinking like Middlesbrough did last season. Newcastle to a lesser extent.

With so many teams scrapping it out close together at the bottom, I wouldn't be surprised if 35 or 36 points is the safety mark. That's just 4 wins away...

 

Well of course it's 'academic' it's always going to be a stab in the dark, but there are factors in play that can be looked at for the teams in the mix, all these issues will always reflect on the odds of who is likely to stay up, yes and there are teams who might well buck the trend due to many factors, but you have to start somewhere mr pedantic!..............

 

With everyone about to enter the business end then any stats go out of the window as every one of us will be fighting for our premiership survival.......All teams must give 100% and those who dont give that will be candidates for the bottom 3. imo

 

Will 40 points be enough?

If so where can we realistically look to get them

My half full glass says -

 

34 - 38 should reach safety i think..

 

I agree 37/38 points might do it. So if we were to continue our good run as Bob has suggested we might be safe by the time we play Man Utd. But that's a BIG if

 

Safe with 6 games to play I don't think it will be that easy!

 

It will go right to the wire for most teams but i still think we will be safe with 2 games to spare..

 

Bob, shouldn't that be 45pts?

 

What's a mere 10 points between friends Taff

God start though Bob 100% forecast so far

 

yep.

 

I see we're now 3rd favourites to be relegated. Slowly creeping up in the estimations of the bookies huh ?
In our next 3 matches, we are home to Burnley, away to Brighton and home to West Ham.
All are winnable. On current form will be disappointed if we don't get at least 6 points from them. That will have put us on hell of a run if it comes to fruition !

 

with Bony and Fer out for the season it's going to be tough on the squad. Warm up King and Ayew...we're gonna need them!

 

TBH I'd forgotten about him and was thinking go Adam King!

 

Not worried about Bony at all, He is only here for his wages, But we will miss Fer and his performances....

 

All we need now is A Ayew to go the same way as Bony, not convinced by this signing, just hope I'm wrong, as Carlos deserves better than what Jinx gave him in the transfer window.............

 

After 26 games last season we had 24 points (GD - 25)
After 26 games this season we have 24 points (GD -18)

Only two clubs (Leicester & Bournmouth) were within 6 point above us (Soton had 30 points but with DG of just -5 were effectively 7 points clear)
This season five clubs are within 3 points and Watford had 6 and better GD)

Still a lot to play for.

We and Watford have shown clubs a the bottom can take points from top 6 but the important games are those in 'our league'.
3points from Arsenal is 3 points
3 points from Newcastle is worth 6 at the bottom.