Cheltenham 2018: Antepost Thread

NATIVE RIVER Will not win the gold cup!!!! UNLESS the ground comes out soft/ heavy.

For the gold cup you nowadays you need speed and you need good high level form over shorter distances look at the last 3 winners Sizing John, Don Cossack, Coneygree, have all won good races over 2 1/2m or shorter! As I say the only way the plodders such as Native River and Bristol De Mai win is with a lot of rain!!

 

Native River did win a hurdle race over 2 miles 1 furlong early in his career though...winners before those you mention include Synchronised...Bobsworth...Long Run and.Imperial Commander which you would have to say would be seen as more staying types although again did win over shorter trips earlier in their careers. I think Native River has the class to win a Gold Cup..although much will depend on how he returns this season. Still only young there could be more improvement to come this season.

 

The Horses running in the gold cup are different to the Horses of even the likes of kauto star, long run, Denman but even kauto star as we know won over 2m and 2 1/2 miles and Denman had grade 1 form over 2 1/2 too. There are now speedier types coming in to the gold cup now and not just the stayers of old for a horse to win the gold cup on decent festival spring ground they have to have more now then just to be able to stay the extended 3m and that unfortunately is all that Native River has he doesn’t have the speed when it really comes to it of the likes of Sizing John, Might Bite or Thistlecrack. They can quicken off a fast run pace which really is incredible! Native river has a chance of winning but again only if the ground comes up soft or worst any good in the going imo will find it extremely hard to win

 

Looking like a very open cheltenham this year bar a couple of races.Don't think I will dip my toe into the ante post pond this season and will most likely wait to a couple of days before tapes up before punting.

 

You read that Native River has a deceptively long stride and as Oddy has stated Native River finished 3rd after all those tough races before him last year. Top notch racing is all about fine margins and I really do think Native River can be even better in this years Gold Cup. Will only be 8 years old and being campaigned differently with this clearly the main aim! Massive chance....

 

But he still had top level form over 2, 2 1/2 so altho he couldn’t get near Douvan, who could!! He must have had some speed to even keep coming second to him with beating some proper decent 2m yard sticks. But that’s exactly it Minella Rocco got going to late and again will find the same problem. lord Windermere’s gold cup was against a lot of plodders - on his own, giant bolster and the only horse with some tactical speed in Silvinicao Conti just didn’t get the trip so it was a race with no pace in it, the same with Bobs Worth no horse in the race had any kind of form over shorter. Coneygree was just a beast and he did just gallop gallop gallop which not a lot of Horses can actually do (native river being one) As i sau Denman had decent form over shorter too so he fits what I’m trying to say.

Basically these genuine 3m chasers are very much vulnerable to a horse with some speed and good grade 1 form over shorter distances this year the Horses imo that fall under the category are Disko, Sizing John, Road To Respect, Our Duke and Coney Island. The type of horse running in the gold has now changed and staying the trip is not what it is all about ok you still have to have proven stamina but so much more is needed and im putting it out there! The Cheltenham Gold Cup winner will come from one of the above (and I just can’t be having MIGHT BITE for one reason or another)

 

* will win if the ground has good in the description*

 

Disko for me as it stands

 

Our duke for me!

 

Snap!!

 

Thistlecrack OUT if not mentioned anywhere else.

 

I have always backed the previous years RSA winner in the GC. Not going to change this year. Sorry - apart from Lord bloody Windermere

 

Finian's Oscar set to return to hurdles then with the World Hurdle as the aim. Awful campaigning of a good horse by Tizzard it must be said. Appeared like he was running him more often than they'd run a greyhound and over every trip under the sun too. The top trainers know to take their time with a proper one when they get one. Running him over 2m was borderline insanity, obvious to the world he wasn't a 2m horse, finally the penny has dropped...

 

Cor blimey you can’t say anything negative about Colin Tizzard on here! Whenever I do I get shouted at by his ‘fan club’.

Interestingly, Finian’s Oscar has been put up by Mr P Wise this morn for the World Hurdle – 1 pt e/w NRNB @ 16/1. Meanwhile, Yanworth might follow suit and be similarly switched back to hurdles for the same race.

On the subject of novice chasers switching back to hurdles shall I have my usual moan about why Altior didn’t run in last terms ‘Champion Hurdle’?!? Will keep it brief but why the best NH horse is Britain ran at the festival, in a comparatively minor heat, worth £100k to the winner when he could have had a race worth £228k and the associated prestige of being a Champion Hurdler, at his mercy, I’ve no idea. If I was his owner I know where I would have been ordering the hired help, the Lieutenant, to run Altior. Especially as the ’17 Champion Hurdle was so weak and there for the taking.

 

Has anyone ever said he was a 2 miler? You dont need to be a 2 miler to win the Arkle.

My Way De Solzen won the World Hurdle the year before winning the Arkle, Tidal Bay got done for speed in a Welsh National on Chepstow ground, Captain Chris stayed 3 miles.

They go an all out gallop from the start so class usually comes to the fore, if the class horse in the race is a stayer he will still win.

Problem with Finians Oscar is that he has seemingly not taken to fences, on class he would have had a great chance in this years Arkle.

 

Can't see past Footpad in this years Arkle but that doesn't tell anyone too much they don't already know.. Smacks of the Tizzards making a few early season mistakes and trying to rectify it. The World Hurdle looks weak. If he can reemerge in his novice form he'd be one of many with as much of a chance as the rest imho.

 

That could be the case Oddy but i'd be taking the opposite view. I know you're a big fan of Sceau Royal and i wouldn't knock him as a horse but i definitely don't see him as the equal of Footpad, let alone the better horse. You can do the analysis of Sceau Royal's chase runs thus far (i'm not killing myself over it because i don't think he'll run in the Arkle) but my take would be it's paper thin form. To be fair mate, if you've looked at any of Sceau Royal's form over fences you'd never back him at 6/1 in the Arkle. Sceau Royal's Cheltenham Festival form is quite poor as well. Footpad hasn't won at the Festival but he's put in far better runs at every festival. Third in the Triumph. Fourth in the Champion Hurdle. That's decent form at the track.

Same ownership. Arkle fav and 2nd fav. I doubt they both race each other and it takes a very strong willed mind to divert the Arkle fav when all the past experiences of the two horses at the Cheltenham Festival is that Footpad is better suited to conditions and racing style on the big day.

We could both be wrong of course. Footpad's group one form over fences is completely untested. Death Duty was clearly the one who could have franked it at the top table but he's now out for the year so we'll not get that chance. They could both be blown away on the day if they line up. Personally though, Footpad has been maturing for three years to become a chaser like most of Munir's. Has high quality Festival performances and is now ready to become the Arkle winner. Sceau Royal probably unplaced if he runs.