So then now that we have ushered 2017 out through the back door and flung open the front door to both cordially and enthusiastically welcome in 2018 (surely it’s not just in Wiltshire that this custom is practiced in?!?) what are our punting resolutions, beyond always picking the winner of the next heat, re 2018??? Now seems like the perfect time to list a few rules to adhere to throughout this term. My personal ones would be: (i) only wager in a NH race, with a prizepot of less than £10k, if you are extremely confident. If any less assured than this leave it, I say leave it, alone! I maintain that in the last few years not one single heat, of this nature, has been run in the Isle where something wasn’t ‘occurring’ – nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more… (ii) do not back any horse in a ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ – usually half the field are running solely to qualify for the Final and amongst the rest of the field there are more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel. (iii) do not back any horse in a Newton Abbot Selling Hurdle – there are typically more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel contained within. (iv) do not have a bet in a very big race solely because it is a very big race. If you don’t like anything in the high profile contest simply don’t wager. (v) pay more heed to the ‘ante-post market’. Gems can still be uncovered if you look closely enough. (vi) in the Flat turf season, in the main, stick to a core number of stables (no more than a handful) when having a bet. I’ve had nice successes these past couple of terms when centring on the likes of Mr O’Brien, old boy Gosden and the 2 Roger’s. (vii) do not assume that those old rogues, the Pipe’s, are up to something every single time they have a runner. (viii) do not assume that old rogue, Sir Mark Prescott, is up to something every single time he has a runner. Any more rules, mantras or instructions to help your own betting or those of the dear old forum members, people?!?
Don't back anything tipped by Barney. It's usually poor value as its trained by Henderson and win to run ratio is shocking.
I believe you are misinformed ref point (viii). The barmy Baronet is constitutionally incapable of going anywhere near a racecourse without the whiff of cigars and skullduggery wafting in his wake.
1. A horse's rating (and therefore weight in a handicap) is based on its overall form. It might pay to derive your own ratings according to ground conditions and track type since there can be a major difference in performance when conditions suit. When extreme going conditions don't bet unless the horse you fancy has proven it not only acts on the ground but revels in it and make sure it has better form on the ground than any other horse in the race has shown on similar ground. Beware of horses that haven't raced on it but will appreciate it (sires are some sort of guide here). Also, don't assume that just because a horse has won in the conditions it actually appreciates them; something had to win its race 2. Look out for lightly raced 2yos (1 or 2 runs - 3 in exceptional circumstances) that have run well (no more than 6l behind the winner) in big field (12 or more runners) and were not given a hard race yet still either ran on to be nearest finish or was up with the leaders and eased final furlong; particularly if the race was run in a good time and the horse is now down in grade and a good jockey has been engaged. No need to be too precise about the beaten distance (eg sorry to blow my own trumpet but here is an example of what I mean)
Cor blimey, old boy, you sounded like Arkle for a moment there! Next you will be producing stats and graphs re everyone’s tipping prowess. In all fairness the last one mentioned did win (Bardd when Lieutenant Henderson ran him on the level) and, don't forget, we’ve got the wonderfully bred Simonia, to look forward to, of the morrow.
My advice - avoid antepost (if it wasn’t for eagle-eyed Stick I would be staring into a fairly deep hole) and anything I post up
One thing I've been trying to do when picking horses for the competitions on here is to try and identify unexposed horses, particularly ones who seem to be a little bit overlooked in the market because they are not from the biggest yards. Certainly Mulcahys Hill fell into this category last Saturday and almost caused an almighty shock in the Challow. Reebs also spotted a good un with Sam Spinner There are also certain NH yards who will look to run a horse in 3 novice hurdle races, tenderly handled, in order to get the horse a nice education and an even nicer handicap mark. Jonjo is a master at this and his are always worth a second look on handicap debut. The Pipe yard, conversely, is usually crap at this As regards the forum's favourite Lieutenant, I used to say "back his novice hurdlers blind" but I have to say he is really excelling with his chasers this winter and has already won some very nice pots.
Are (i) through (v) not just a verbose way of stating “don’t bet on jumps racing it is totally bent”? Stray apostrophe alert: ‘the Pipes’ is plural not possessive. Is that old rogue continuing to train? His apprentice, William Butler, was rumoured to be taking over some time soon. Is the good baronet sticking around until 2019 to bring up his half century with the license?
Don't make any "punting resolutions"; usually last no more than a week anyway. However, a good resolution is "never bet ante-post". Prices on the day for meetings such as the Cheltenham Festival, and Royal Ascot, for example, are plenty good enough.
My rules have always been the same when gambling: 1) Never bet what you can't afford to lose. 2) Never back blind, I bet because I want to not because I'm told to. 3) Don't back horses on a hatrick (this is not a never bet because there are extremely rare occasions when I'll break it). 4) Treat myself or family or pay bill, mortgage etc with part of any big win so as not to re-gamble it. 5) Don't bet if I'm not enjoying it. It's a hobby not a lifestyle.
I totally agree with this...plenty can go wrong...you don't know the opposition...ground etc. Don't get sucked in! Whilst I did recently with Tea for Two in the King George that was only my 3rd ante post bet ever...I normally maintain the discipline.
Re ante post, I agree in principle as you need to take account of the odds of the horse actually taking part. However when I recommended Enable and Highland Reel for the Arc at 20/1 and 66/1 respectively, I think that is a fair example of where the odds more than compensated for the possibility of them not running, particularly as they could have been laid off later for a no risk bet at decent odds
