I’m going for Thistlecrack. No idea why, just have a feeling that Newbury was just a blip. 6/1 on sky bet currently, but I’ll wait until the day.
Are Gigginstown sending any of their horses over? I read somewhere Outlander was staying in Ireland. If he is scratched then now down to 8 runners...assuming all stay fit and healthy.. If thats the case thats a bit of a shame...no top 3 mile chaser from the emerald isle trying to make its mark against the best here.
Whisper 8/1 max each way if all 8 go to post. Very likely to be in the three in a field where every other horse has question marks. Put a line through Traffic Fluide, Thistlecrack and Double Shuffle - no chance for any of those. Thistlecrack is finished imho. Huge question re Fox Norton over 3 miles and this is an after thought/roll of the dice. Might Bite has two big question marks at 11/8 - jumping and will he be challenged for the lead by Thislecrack and Bristol. Thistle will drop away but i can't see a reason why Bristol will. That could throw MB off his rhythm and with lingering doubts re trip he can't have his rhythm out of kilter imho. We could easily see MB drop away if Bristol wins the battle. Bristol - flat track bully maybe, heavy ground specialist maybe, has the last run killed his chance today? How will he cope if MB wins the speed battle to lead? Is he going to be running the right way? 5 questions is too many to take 4/1 Whisper - will sit off the pace and stay through beaten horses but he'll be buggered if the lead battle doesn't happen. will love conditions and track. is he just aa little off these horses ability wise? I can't back the front four in the market because of these huge question marks. Might Bite is a woeful price. One of the worst value plays i've seen in years. Whisper could be the best horse in this race anyway but with everything highly likely to be in his favour i think 8/1 is a mega price. now we just have to wait and see if 8 run.
3m trip doubt re Might Bite First ive heard. Gold Cup maybe, but 4 of his 5 chase wins have been at 3m or further including the RSA on a stiffer track and he was winning half the track over the course and distance last year. Doesnt need to lead either so there isnt going to be anything stupid for the lead if something else wants it. Nico will let him do it in his own time and if he goes like normal eventually nothing in this race will be able to lead him. Bit like Bristol De Mai at Haydock, 5/2 antepost was a good price but if you missed that then the 6/4 on the day didnt look great but you could see why he was that short, that was BDMs race, this look to be Might Bites race and its the same situation if you missed the bigger prices.
3 miles without an easy lead in the best field he’s ever faced very much is a question. Not really sure how it can’t be even to his most ardent fans. Fox Norton’s a QMCC 2 miler. If he wants to lead he’s leading, not that he will but just pointing out.
Apparently, when Might Bite fell (over-jumped) over C&D last year, he was faster to that point than Thistlecrack was in winning the KG. In other words, had he not fallen, he had run a race good enough to win last year's KG. That, to me, makes him the most likely winner of this year's race, even if Thistlecrack were to be at his best. Whilst the price is not generous from the punters' view, would you lay him at odds against? I wouldn't.
But last years King George wasn't run at a breakneck pace like it is most years and probably will be this year Ron. Three horses will want to lead. It’s going to be a run at a really good clip. Also, just because you wouldn't want to lay a horse at odds against doesn't mean backing it at odds against is a decent play.
I could be completely wrong. I'll have to admit that when its over if i am but i just can't understand why you'd consider taking 11/8 about Might Bite with questions to answer when you have Whisper who on last years form has a nose and 2 lengths to find but is 8/1. Might Bite isn't a young horse. Neither are. There's no particular reason to believe Might Bite has improved from last year but we have the Hennessy to say Whisper has improved (either that or it was a bad edition). Whisper ran 4lbs out of the handicap in that race and lost a nostril in possibly the best renewal (excitement wise) in years. A mighty performance. Now obviously you could argue Might Bite hasn't had the chance to show his improvement. That's absolutely fair enough but 11/8 kind of stops that in its tracks doesn't it? The lead is clearly the biggest concern for the fav and a major reason why i'd want to take him on. Might Bite has enjoyed uncontested leads primarily in my opinion because he's not been running against anything top class in open company that wants to race up top. If you don't see that as a huge advantage you may as well give up the game. Whisper is the only really good horse he's run against so far and he's been held up. Now he comes up against Bristol De Mai and Thistlecrack. I subscribe to the theory Bristol is best on a flat track but he'll still want to hurry the favourite the whole way round. Thistlecrack will do the same. He travelled well over hurdles for two thirds of the race lto. I'd expect him to do the same then fold when he's put under pressure. These two horses are by far the best two animals he's come up against and who will also want to lead. From a rhythm perspective why wouldn't that worry you? He may brush them aside with out any problem but equally it could ruin his race. To be totally fair to the whole field, what exactly are people seeing in Might Bite that makes him a certainty in open company? The RSA was not a particularly good renewal. He barely won it. Obviously something distracted him but he looked a tired horse to me before he picked up again. It could have been him idling, it could equally have been him hitting a flat spot. I really don't know what the hell happened. No one does. He had the race run entirely to suit and he still started playing games. Why isn't that a concern for everyone having a bet? Also, Whisper didn't really perform at the Festival when he contested hurdles at any point in his career yet he was a nostril from nicking the RSA. That's a question i'd think is worthwhile looking into a little more. Maybe it was just an absolutely horrific group of 3 mile chaser last year and he was the best of a terrible bunch. It certainly looked a weak race before the RSA was run. If they are a bad bunch then to be honest, i hope he smashes this lot because Sizing John et al will be great bets come Cheltenham. I'm willing to take the risk with an 8/1 shot but not almost evens. Anyway, i'll only be having a bet in this race if there's eight runners and i can get between 6/1 and 8/1 about Whisper and as long as he takes a place in the first three i'll be happy enough. Might Bite will probably win if he does what loads of people expect but my point is you'll lose more than you'll win if you make a habit of backing horses with this type of profile in these races. Anyway, enjoy the race lads whatever happens. I'll pop on after it's run to offer my contrition if Might Bite smashes them up and Whisper fails to place.
He stays 3 miles, its not even a question and the lead is a non issue. If he gets beat it wont be because of stamina. To me if he runs his race and jumps the only danger would be thistlecrack at his best which looks extremely unlikely to be the case. Not having bdm suddenly becoming elite after about 30 runs and whisper couldny beat Might Bite when practically threw the race away at Cheltenham, hes solid but he needs Mite Bite to have an off day.
Should add im not having to consider 11/8 as i took 2/1 but if i wasnt on hed still be a big bet for me at 6/4 on the day.
Thistlecrack hasn't a hope in this race, that's pretty clear to most. He was all hype, that's been proven on his last two starts. If Might Bite can't smash this lot they may as well give the Cheltenham Gold Cup to the Lexus winner two days later as nothing else in this King George will be troubling whatever wins that. Just my opinion
Best performance was in winning a poor King George run at an absolute crawl beating a couple of horses turning 12, with a horse called Tea for Two close up behind. Very average animal, beat by a capper on his next start, ah proper legend that It's undeniable his form didn't anywhere near add up the ridiculous hype surrounded him. Win a Gold Cup they said, he couldn't even win a Cotswold Chase Absolute hype job.
Close up behind? Thistlecrack had the race won with half a circuit to go and cantered over the line. I also though Cue Card came second.
So you basically slag Might Bite chances then say he will probably win? Im on Whisper for the value myself.
Yep No, not really. I'm not slagging his chances. He has his chance. There's just plenty of question marks. He's the fav for a reason. If he does what a lot of people expect from him then he'll win. I'm taking him on because the prices are wrong.
Thistlecrack has ran in 6 G1s, finished 2nd in 1 and won the other 5 by close to 40L combined, winning at Cheltenham, Aintree, and the King George as a novice. But he lost a prep race G2 in slog against a grand national winner off level weights as a novice by a head after barely jumping a fence the full way and then went out like a light after coming back from an injury means he was all hype. Ive rarely backed the horse but only a complete idiot or someone who is at it, would deny he was a machine at his best.
