Which handsome, well loved and oft saluted forum member tipped Bristol de Mai, to his regular readers, for the CGC at odds of 50/1?!? And which handsome, well loved and oft saluted member didn’t follow his own advice and back Bristol de Mai to win the CGC at odds of 50/1…bally blinkin’ ‘eck! But the purpose of this thread, team, is not a bit of trumpet blowing or woeful malaise at not striking a wager it’s to have a look at a couple of comments made after the ‘Betfair Chase’. So, troops, let’s do that… The comments in question were made by Colin Tizzard (don’t fret this isn’t a Colin Tizzard quote that I’ll still be repeating 12 months later) and old girl Elizabeth Kelly. Tizzard reflected after Cue card’s defeat that he had run ‘to a similar level to when he and Tea For Two last met so it looks solid’. It certainly was along those lines, as at Aintree, in April, a neck separated the pair and they were all but level with 75 yards to go on Saturday before an exhausted Tea For Two all but stopped. If that is true and Cue Card ran to a perch of about 160 both times (I’ve downgraded this slightly. Officially he was perched on 168 after Aintree) does this mean Bristol de Mai, who won by 57 lengths, put up the greatest performance ever and is deserving of a rating of 217?!? Arkle, who?!? The second comments belong to Elizabeth Kelly who I think, for want of a better phrase, has a habit of ‘shooting herself in the foot’ every time she speaks. Her most famous remark, of course, being after she won the Grade 1 Feltham – ‘No one knows the sacrifices I’ve made. I’ve not been on so many Winter Holidays because I’ve been working in stables at the time’. Made at a time when in Broken / Austerity (delete as appropriate) Britain 99% of the population can’t even contemplate having a Winter Holiday let alone go on one. And, by the way, when she says ‘Winter Holiday’ she doesn’t mean staying with your Uncle Frank and Auntie Brenda, in Cleethorpes, watching cousin Norman pull his cracker at Christams! Anyway the latest jaw dropper was Elizabeth announcing that she ‘couldn’t believe how Tea For Two got over the last 2 fences because he was so exhausted in that ground’. If that was the bally case then why was she asking the horse to do just that?!? The answer is obviously money, dough, filthy lucre. You do though wonder if she should be investigated for cruelty after this remark. Anyway, I’ve waffled enough. Any views on these comments???
According to Oddschecker, Betfair are still offering 33/1. Try getting that . Odds ranging from 12s down to 8s (Unibet 25s)
This was a serious performance from Bristol De Mai. If you rewatch the race, you will see that already at the end of the back straight at 5 out (so after maybe 18 furlongs, maybe 20) the rest of the field were beaten - all jockeys scrubbing along and getting next to no response from their mounts, with the glorious exception of Daryl Jacob who was motionless on the grey. When a race has a blanket finish, the form is often questioned because "they can't all be that good". So I ask myself, can the others all really have been that bad or was it simply a stunning victory from Bristol De Mai? I haven't seen a demolition like it since Kauto Star trouncing Madison Du Berlais by 36 lengths at Kempton. Based on his 2 wins this season, he has progressed significantly over the summer and, being still only 6, there is likely more to come. I hope he can remain injury free and get to Kempton in the same form, what a prospect that will be.
Good question Ron... To me yes, but that's not to say that I think he will go on to win the 'triple-crown' now with Kempton & GGC in march, he may need another year. But the fun thing is he might go on to win these 3 big races then what a horse we will have on our hands...!!!
Not from a raw talent perspective Ron (and Thistlecrack emerged into a poor Stayers Hurdle sphere, hence my thinking he could win the World Hurdle at the beginning of his second season over hurdles). BDM comes into a strong staying chasers sphere so let’s see how he goes at Kempton.
Ddm needs soft/heavy ground on a flat track. Might win the King George , have my doubts about the gold cup. Love twisters, great trainer and not frightened of a challenge so I hope they win both. The comments re Lizzie Kelly, barney you have no idea the sacrifices people like her make when lots of others are either sunning themselves in Barbados or skiing on in Switzerland , getting up at 5am mucking out in the wind,rain and snow freezing water pipes breaking ice in frozen troughs, grooming, then riding out 2or 3 lots coming back to do it all again. He wouldn't last five minutes.
My point was that she was lamenting about, her ill fortune, re missing Winter Holidays when 99% of the population, in this country right now, are not even in a position to even, so much as, contemplate going on one. It was a classic ‘poor little rich girl’ rant. I’m sure she works very hard and am not doubting that for one moment. It was the comment I was ridiculing.
I think he is referring to Bristol De Mai. Although I don't know why he is commenting as he always tells us that he has no interest in slow horses. Must be a slow day on the Betfair forum.
Bristol de Mai’s revised perch after the ‘Betfair’ is 173. I do wonder if the handicapper has chickened out of going for a far, far, far more higher rating which in my opinion he so deserves. Seems slightly strange that you beat an animal rated 168 57 lengths, another rated 166 66 lengths and one rated 164 66.5 lengths and you ‘just’ get assessed at 173! Bit academic some might say as he’s unlikely to go in a handicap for many a day – unless, of course, they suddenly introduced a £1 million handicap over 24 furlongs! Then it would become highly relevant...
There was an interesting interview with Phil Smith on this yesterday on the Sporting Life website. He actually totally dismissed the other runners in the Betfair Chase and used the handicap chase 30 minutes later on the card to get to his 173 as follows: “Chase The Spud won the handicap and I was more confident of assessing him than I was Bristol De Mai. “So I went with 148 for Chase The Spud. Bristol De Mai and Chase The Spud both carried exactly the same weight, 11 stone 7lb, so there’s no weight issue there, and Bristol De Mai’s time was 10 seconds faster than Chase The Spud’s. “Ten seconds on that ground, we work on four lengths per second, so I’ve got a position where Bristol De Mai is 40 lengths superior to Chase The Spud. Then it’s just a question of what pounds per length I use and, on that ground, I went with five-eighths of a pound per length. Normally on good ground I’d use a pound per-length. “On that maths five-eighths of 40 is 25, so I added that figure onto Chase The Spud’s 148 and it comes to 173. That looked about the sort of figure I thought it should be based on the historical context of the race and the way he was mighty impressive.” I think the other runners in the Betfair Chase just couldn't go the pace with Bristol De Mai on that ground and they were all off the bridle after the fifth last. I think that probably explains the yawning gaps behind Bristol De Mai. Whilst he clearly relishes heavy ground at Haydock I don't believe this makes him a one trick pony and his participation just adds another dimension to what is looking like one of the best King Georges for years.
Ratings are a laugh Better horse than Altior, piss off A rarity I agree with DK but he’s probably right. Last year’s race churned out a measly 1 win from 16 subsequent runs from all the Betfair runners. This year’s renewal was run in horrendous ground, plenty will have left their season behind in that Haydock quagmire. It wasn’t pleasant viewing watching the reminder stagger home punch drunk. Brilliant decision by Jessie keeping her horse at home, bigger targets ahead for him. But fair play to the winner he destroyed them but that was his Gold Cup, he won’t be getting near in the King George or the Cheltenham race.
I agree 100%. I had actually done the exact same comparison as measuring against horses that virtually walked home would be pretty meaningless
Looking back at the Timeform review I see they come up with 173+ which basically means they couldn't rate him higher but he could prove to be better, as opposed to Min, who they rate 170p, meaning likely to improve beyond that. I assume the + for BDM is because, had he had competition over the last, he might well have produced a much faster time but we don't know that for sure. Makes you wonder what might have happened had Min jumped alongside 2 out and they had to battle it out from there
I see that ‘Racing Post Ratings’ have perched Bristol De Mai on 185. To put this into context that is 1 pound above anything Denman ever did on their rankings – for those very poor at maths Denman’s peak rating was 184 with them. They also rated Bristol de Mai’s ‘Betfair’ win superior to anything that Kauto Star did in the same race.
Cue Card is on the downgrade, and the rest of the field fell apart in the mud. 173 is about right imo. RPRs are utter bollocks, always have been. Do any punters pay attention to them? The OR is consistently a pretty accurate and totally objective measure of a horse's ability. Timeform ratings are opinion based and therefore subject to deliberate bias, but I still always buy a Timeform card when I go racing, and they have helped me find winners. But RPRs? I completely ignore them.
“Chase The Spud won the handicap and I was more confident of assessing him than I was Bristol De Mai. “So I went with 148 for Chase The Spud. Bristol De Mai and Chase The Spud both carried exactly the same weight, 11 stone 7lb, so there’s no weight issue there, and Bristol De Mai’s time was 10 seconds faster than Chase The Spud’s. “Ten seconds on that ground, we work on four lengths per second, so I’ve got a position where Bristol De Mai is 40 lengths superior to Chase The Spud. Then it’s just a question of what pounds per length I use and, on that ground, I went with five-eighths of a pound per length. Normally on good ground I’d use a pound per-length. “On that maths five-eighths of 40 is 25, so I added that figure onto Chase The Spud’s 148 and it comes to 173. That looked about the sort of figure I thought it should be based on the historical context of the race and the way he was mighty impressive.” **** OFF. The ratings thing is so full of holes, it's comical. Imagine people putting their hard earned on some animal assessed by that sort of reasoning. If these guys had been on the slide rule for the moon landing, Neil Armstrong and Buzz Aldrin would have touched down in outback Australia.
