Nobody is ever going to agree on the Harbinger argument. I am in the camp that it was a fluke result as Cape Blanco and Workforce cut each otherâs throats and the form cannot be made to stack up through the others as Youmzainâs best form was always on flat tracks and Daryakana was a disappointment all season. The course/race records are meaningless at Ascot as they are only five years old since the course was reworked in 2005. It is like setting a course/race record at Ffos Las. Grundyâs old race record was set in a race where Dick Hern ran two pacemakers for Bustino, the third home, Dahlia, broke the old record finishing five lengths behind; and the race finished both horses (Bustino injured; Grundy well beaten in the Benson & Hedges Gold Cup at York). Had Harbinger gone to York I would have opposed him over a mile-and-a-quarter (like Await The Dawn) and I would not have been on him in a rough twenty-runner race at Longchamp either.
Great Pidulski.....Cape Blanco ran a stinker in the Arc, first and foremost because he was drawn out wide, and when your drawn out wide at Longchamp your as good as beaten before the race. Watch were he is travelling throughout the race, he was about 5 wide and probably ran 1/2 a furlong more than the eventual winner Workforce, who travelled on the rails the whole way. It also didn't help that he was interfered with when making his challenge. As for Youmzains poor showing in last seasons Arc, I think the draw is to blame again, check out these stats! * Youmzains Arc record* 2007 Drawn 4 finishes 2nd* 2008 Drawn 2 finishes 2nd 2009 Drawn 2 finishes 2nd* 2010 Drawn 12 finishes 10th* As you can see the draw is a massive factor in which horse's run well in the Arc. It's an incredibly bias racecourse, and that's why I never understand why the Arc is always thought of as Europes premiere flat race, the Champion stakes when at Newmarket was the fairest end of season championship race, a straight 10f with very little draw bias.* Against Duke of Marmalade in the KG Youmzain missed the break conceeding 5+ lengths at the start, and then he got boxed in, and didn't get a run. It was not Richard Hughes finest hour, and he was widely criticised for the ride, as Youmzain was well fancied by punters that day, so you can ignore that race.* I know he is a better horse at Longchamp, who would dispute that? though it has to be said he was very lucky to get 3 favourable draws in a row. His run behind Dylan Thomas in the KG suggests he acts around Ascot fine, so I realy don't see how he is a bad yardstick to the form. If you don't believe me about the DOM KG then watch the replay, had he not missed the break, and got a clear run he would have only Been a few lengths behind the winner.* Daryakana was beaten a head in the GP Saint Cloud G1 before the KG, and then she ran in the Arc trial against Nakayama Festa (Arc 2nd) and Duncan, where she only lost by 4 lengths, nothing like the Harbinger defeat where she was hammered by 15 lengths.* I realy dont understand how you can crab the form of the KG, it's rock solid G1 form
what was grundys time?? doyen in 2004 in the hardwick clocked 2m26.53,i beleive that was the record over 12f since redevelopment
whos crabbing the form KS? at 130 which i think he may of ran too ,its still outstanding performance, but i dont think hes all time great due to one questionable performance. i mean is cape blanco a true 1m4f horse? in beating midas touch by 1/2 length,is that good form?he as not attempted that distance this season and even dropped back to a mile and his 2 remaining entries are 10f targets.if you are stating cape blanco is better than workforce,then shouldnt he of beat midas touch by the mere 1/2 length by much more in the irish derby??i mean workforce managed to beat midas touch by 11 lengths! was cape blanco coming towards the end of his stamina as he couldnt draw away from a horse inside the final furlong of the irish derby that workforce managed to do?or could it be that workforce is better than cape blanco?
Grundy’s winning time in the 1975 King George VI & Queen Elizabeth Diamond Stakes was 2 minutes 26.98 seconds. greatpilsudski, Doyen’s winning time in the 2004 Hardwicke Stakes would have been on the old Ascot mile-and-a-half and that would have been quicker than Grundy’s record. There were no races at Ascot in 2005 (the Royal meeting moved to York, the KG was at Newbury) and the records restarted in 2006, so Harbinger is the fastest in the last six years; and Nathaniel the slowest.
Nass....Rather than just mocking my point, actually watch a replay of the Arc, Ryan Moore despite not having an ideal draw managed to get to the rail, and that move won him the race, then watch Soumillon on Cape Blanco who is forced to travel wide throughout. Being drawn low gives you an easy opportunity to grab a rail position, but some times with abit of luck and a smart jockey, a horse drawn higher can get to the rail. Had Workforce taken the same route as Cape Blanco, there is no way he would have won the race. Great Pidulski....Cape Blanco is a very good horse, as far as I'm concerned he is the best middle distance horse in AOBs yard, don't run him down just because of one piece of form. I was at Ascot for his seasonal debut, and he looked like a cow, just as unfit as Rip Van Winkle in the Queen Anne the year before, so you can ignore that run. He beat Workforce twice last year in small field races, where there can be no traffic problems, or any horse's being forced wide. Just because Workforce gets the luck in running in the Arc, I don't see how he can be rated a better horse, particularly as CB was badly interfered with in the hone straight
KS i agree ,hes a great horse,his champion stakes win in ireland was outstanding and his best yet imo,but i have doubts his irish derby form was as good.im not gonna get into the who is the best of cape blanco/workorce ,im trying to suggest that harbinger massive rating is overrated by looking at other angels.(his ascot run was his 3rd run of the season btw,he had already ran in dubai and france before.) it was purely based on cape blancos 11l beating,but i dont think cape blanco stays 12f that well.his the irish derby form that good?midas touch,jan vermmer?i think not,imo his class got him home against inferior stable rivals,if he stayed that well he should of drew clear of his stablemates considering what he did next time out.to me in the king george he was simply not at his best over that trip ,but was the only 1 of the 3 others who put in some kind of challenge to harbinger.
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GP....It's easy to draw conclusions from one piece of form, Cape Blanco has ran over 12 on 3 occasions. I think you can agree that we can ignore the Arc running, that was a messy race, and he got badly interfered with. His Irish Derby form is iffy il agree, but so is Sea The Stars Derby form iffy, Masterofthehorse, was only a lengh behind ***, and only a few behind STS. Dylan Thomas was beat in the Epsom renewal, by Sir Percy, and a no hoper in Dragon Dancer. Rewilding was behind 3rd At First Sight in his Derby. Basically what im saying is Derby form can look iffy, and I feel its naive to draw to many conclusions from it. If Cape Blanco was to face Midas Touch and Jan Vermeer over 12fs now, he would be 1/5 to prevail, and would win by as far as he liked. Just as Dylan Thomas would have done the same to Sir Percy. Cape Blancos run in the KG was useful form, he beat Youmzain well enough, and Daryakana. Are you trying to tell me both of those ran way below form aswell as Workforce? I don't feel there is enough evidence to suggest CB doesnt stay 12fs based on one run in the Irish Derby, where a couple of rags got close to him
beating 2 horses who only had 1 more run each and then were retired?thats what he beat,the aga kahn quickly sent her of to have babies as she didnt recapture her 4yo form,a close 3rd in a slow run french race looked like she hadnt deteriorated,but when faced with a true pace race ,she was quickly shown to be a horse who was not what she was ,youmzain at 7 now ,was running to with 2 lengths or less of the last 3 arc winners but trailed home 14 lengths in last years,he had gone,age had caught up with him ,he was no longer the horse he was,bad draw or not,losing a further 12 lengths from the previous 3 years is not a result of a poor draw,wasnt even that poor,been drawn 18,19 and 20 is a bad drawn,12 isnt of course cape blanco would beat midas touch and jan vermeer by more now,jan vermeer is now a donkey pacemaker and midas touch is running in sprints down under,hardly 2 horse you can rely on to run any sort of race! it isnt hard to think after that that only one horse was on top his game that day and the others werent,in small fields the likely-hood increases.take this years king george,workforce wanted to run anyway but straight,poor old rewilding fell,all of a sudden 2 main challengers were either out of not giving there best!
Is it OK if we just agree to disagree. I think we have all had our say and we are obviously so far apart in our opinions it's probably going to do more harm than good continuing this thread which, believe it or not, started off as a tribute. Really, I should have known better. Rule 53.17 (ii)(a). No tributes. Bloody French Rules.
My conclusion on page 1! But nothing wrong with a good bit of discussion . . . even if the conclusion is still the same.
