Indeed - didn't Brigadier Gerard suffer his one and only defeat in this race? Well, Await The Dawn may well win this race and win well, but I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole. Yes, he's got room for improvement unlike the other horses in the race but you can pick holes in the form of his last two wins. This is a weakly contested Group 1 IMO.
It's not a weak group one at all. There's two horses that have been top group one performers and a third who is deemed to be so full of potential that he's odds on favourite. I'm struggling to see what more we can ask for.
I feel Twice Over has the best form, if he is at his best, I'm amazed that Queally has chosen Midday. ATD could be anything, and if he wins then fair enough, but he is not a 5/6 shot on what he has achieved this season. Twice Over showed signs he was refinding his form, when winning a G2 over course and distance LTO. He was narrowly beaten in this race last year, and I can see him going one better today. Ian Mongan isn't much of a plus, but I'm not the biggest fan of Queally either, so we will see. The one thing that does standout in this race, is the standard of the jockeys, there pretty unestablished for a G1
i agree rounders, below is a list of group 1's won by Await The Dawn's opposition; Twice Over-2009 Champions Stakes, 2010 Eclipse Stakes, 2010 Champions Stakes Midday-2009 Nassau Stakes, 2009 Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf, 2010 Nassau Stakes, 2010 Yorkshire Oaks, 2010 Prix Vermeille, 2011 Nassau Stakes How can anyone say its a weak group 1? Just because there isnt a Frankel or Workforce in the race doesnt mean its weak.
I see another AOB hype horse bites the dust, and alot of fingers have been burnt. Must admit even I didn't expect him to be beaten so easily. Great to see the 2 old favourites Twice Over and Midday battle out the finish though, it's a real shame the Champion stakes is at Ascot this year as I'd fancy him for a 3rd win if it was at Newmarket. He still has a shout at Ascot, but I've always felt he needs a long straight to get into top gear, that's why 10f on the straight track at Newmarket is perfect for him. Had Henry Cecil listened to me though, he could have had a G1 double at York with Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks, because there is no doubt the form she showed today would be good enough to win that race. Has to be said all of AOBs horse's ran poorly today, his 2yos were poor, and I can't believe that was Sevilles true form, so maybe something is amiss with his horses at present. His earlier flops didn't seem to put people off ATD who was still sent off odds on, which was strange
Both Seville and Await The Dawn found very little when push came to shove. In particular Seville was surely well below par. Perhaps it was the tough races he has had recently counting against him, or perhaps, as Shergar suggests, there is something amiss with the O'Brien horses.
What did you make of Sea Moon Zenyatta, has to be said that performance visually and on paper looked like the performance of a future top G1 horse. It was so impressive I'm thinking he has to have been flattered, surely SMS would of had him in the Derby if he was that good
i analyzed seville and treasure beachs's runs in the grand prix de paris in july.using youtube and sectional timing,treasure beach confirmed aiden o brians view hes in need of a rest as his final furlong was really slow.treasure beach had 2 hard races in the epsom/irish derby previously.seville on the other hand finished quite well(for his standards,no where near meandre's) but he had only 1 previous hard race compared to treasure beach's 2 ,as he ran no race at all at epsom.seville now as ran a clunker following 2 hard recent races just like treasure beach did.so maybe seville will bounce back next time out like treasure beach did?? i think the 4th place horse is probably most reliable guide.the front 2 are obviously massive improves as dont forget al kazeem would of been a comfortable winner if sea moon wasnt there.seville as ran below form so 4th place genius best, may of ran to probably his best (110) which is he s a group 3 winner that got closely placed in a group 2.soft ground also exaggerates the margins,but sea moon maybe a bit like conduit.he also won a h'cap in june before winning a st leger trial(plus a 2nd in a other) before winning the st leger itself and becoming a top class 1m4f 4yo next year the arc imo is not a race for him this year.breeders cup turf might be though.
Well owner and trainer already have Workforce for the Arc, and if they go for the Leger the Arc will come to soon, so the BC turf would be the obvious target all being well after the Leger. He will have stiff competition though as the mighty Dangerous Midge should be there to defend his crown
Even if Await The Dawn was below par today, still think he wouldn't have won if at his best - his form leading up to today's race nowhere near as good as Twice Over or Midday. And 10f is the optimum trip for the Henry Cecil pair - 12f suits Await The Dawn better, and may well end up winning a Group 1 over that trip but it sure won't be the Arc.
I think i am in agreement with you. He was certainly visually very impressive. The time was slow, but in comparison to the other races, it was fair at the very least, if not spectacular. Whilst there can be little doubt that he is rapidly improving i am inclined to agree that such an impressive performance is a little difficult to comprehend. I don't mean to detract from what was an impressive win however. The bare form of the first and second would leave him rated around 115. However that would mean that Seville, Genius Beast and Namibian have all run well below form so it is perfectly feasible to rate him far higher. I think it will be interesting to see what the handicapper does. Impressive he was but 6/4 in the Leger is certainly not for me, at least at this stage.
Await the Dawn - just not good enough. IMHO he had no answer for Twice Over and Midday going past him, in fact he looked one paced. Seville looked like a horse which threw the towel in when the going got tough.
It was a great shame that Juddmonte opted to run both Twice Over and Midday in the International Stakes. Had they run just Twice Over, he would have looked quite impressive putting Await The Dawn in his place; and they could have run Midday in the Yorkshire Oaks where she would have been a short-priced favourite. I did not fancy Await The Dawn as he was stepping back in distance and the Group 2 race he won at Ascot was run on very soft ground. If he is going to pick up a Group 1 race, they will have to step back up in trip and find something on soft ground. The Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe fits the bill but is surely too hotly contested. Sea Moon created a great impression in the Great Voltigeur and his trainer's abysmal record in the St Leger will not put the punters off. I am not so sure that the tactics adopted with Seville really assisted the horse as he has been made much more use of in the races were he has performed well this season.
I backed Midday as her form of both Cecil's runners looked the best this year. Was always foolish to write off the old Cecil stalwart Twice Over who ran a great race as did Midday. Cannot believe how bad Aidan's horses ran today on paper he had a potential treble, I wouldn't exactly say is stable is in poor form either, He cleaned up in America at the weekend. What a season Khalid Abdullah is having though. Sea Moon looks like a very good horse, Why not the Arc instead of the Leger? For Me and I'm sure others the Leger as lost its appeal. 3 year olds ducking the triple crown these days and with all the briliant Stallions about these days, It begs belief!
Sadly these days a colt winning the St Leger effectively means he is packed off to be a National Hunt sire
I think it is widely agreed that Await The Dawn will appreciate firm ground. Connections felt that he got away with the ground at Ascot rather than revelling in it. He won in spite of the ground rather than because of it. Whether he needs the extra 2f to show his best is another question. He was beaten fair and square today and there appeared to be no excuses but to me his effort was too bad to be true. He dropped away so quickly that i can only assume that he ran below par. I was impressed with him at Ascot and find it hard to believe that we saw the same horse today. Perhaps his previous efforts looked better than they actually were but i still think he underperformed today. He may still fall short of Group 1 class but i think he's worth another shot. P.S. Tom Segal was quite complementary about Sea Moon in today's Weekender, saying that "i still think that he will turn out to be the yard's best 3yo" and "i expect him to be winning Group 1 races next year, if not this". It looks like 'this year' is a distinct possiblity on today's evidence!
Midday on better ground over that trip beats Twice Over for me - nothing to do with fillies or colts! Good to see Sir Henry come good for the Prince though! Await The Dawn case of wait and see but not good today!
