2.00 York Ginger Ted 16/1 I’ll start this off with a very important note: if the ground conditions aren’t good to soft or worse I will not be having a bet which indicates the crucial nature of give in the ground for this Richard Guest 4 year old. I am quite a fan of this fast finishing gelding who will don his traditional ridiculous looking furry cheekpieces and noseband as he looks to record his 7th career success. Ginger Ted has been in excellent form this year notching 2 wins so far and given his nature of coming from the back, a fair few hard luck stories. Despite being drawn in the coffin box draw of 20, I think Ginger Ted’s hold up style will mean that this draw wouldn’t be as big a factor for other horses as he will be able to sit in behind the pace and does not necessarily need a plum draw as a result, although it is still a negative After having a reappearance run back in April after 6 months off the track, Ginger Ted got straight back to winning ways when winning at Ayr over 5f on GS in May when seeing of The Nifty Fox by a neck. However, this result is better than the bare result as Ginger Ted missed the break slightly and also found a lot of trouble in running (unfortunately a common occurrence) and had to be switched several times before powering home close to the finish. On his next start at Windsor, Ginger Ted again met trouble in running having to be checked over 3f out and then he was short of racing room before finding a gap and flying at the finish to finish 1L behind We Have a Dream in 4th off a mark of 85. The form of this race looks good, with WHAD coming 2nd subsequently off a 6lb higher mark, and the 3rd, 5th, 6th, 7th and 11th winning off similar marks subsequently. Ginger Ted’s next start came only a day after his effort behind WHAD and saw Ginger Ted return to winning ways off the same mark when defeating Red Cape by a head after a perfectly timed ride to burst through a gap and to win going away (eased close home). Ginger Ted remained poised in behind and when a gap opened up he flew straight through horses and was an impressive winner. It is worth noting that Ginger Ted seems to relish going between horses through tight spaces which is definitely a great attribute to have. The 2nd, 6th and 8th have won again subsequently so the form of this race looks fine also. Ginger Ted’s next start after this came at Newcastle off a mark of 89 where he once again was unlucky in running. After travelling ominously well along with the winner Edinburgh Knight, Ginger Ted again had to be checked and lost momentum as a result and after having waiting for a gap to appear he powered home close home to finish 1.75L behind the winner. Although I don’t think he would have won, I think the trouble met cost him finishing closer. On his next start Ginger Ted put in an absolute stinker of a run finishing last of 14 at Hamilton. The ground was good to firm that day and I am willing to overlook this run as a result. Ginger Ted’s penultimate start could be considered his best to date when finishing 1.5L behind subsequent Stewards Cup winner and Nunthorpe favourite Hoof it at tomorrows track over 6f on good ground. Ginger Ted came with a clear run down the outside of the group and was getting closer with every stride and it was a very impressive performance. With the first two home racing on the far side, it could be argued that Ginger Ted’s effort was on the unfavourable ground as he did best of all to come near side. Furthermore, a lot of Ginger Ted’s rivals from that day oppose tomorrow and were all behind him. They include Irish Heartbeat (9th), Racy (10th) and Silaah (17th). Ginger Ted’s latest performance was a disappointing effort at Doncaster on Saturday on drying good ground. Ginger Ted was absolutely friendless in the market so I think connections knew he wasn’t going to win as he finished 2.5L 7th behind Secret Witness. He did stay on towards the end but it was a disappointing effort. Tomorrow, I don’t see any reason why Ginger Ted can't defy his mark of 90, which is only 1lb higher than his effort behind Hoof It. He seems like a constantly improving 4 year old and although he has only raced at the course once, his recent effort here. He was drawn stall 15 that day, which leads be to believe that he can overcome his poor draw. JP Guillambert takes the ride tomorrow for the 7th time, and boasts an impressive 2 victories and a 2nd from these rides. He clearly knows the horse which I believe is vital given the tactical nature that is needed when delivering him late. Although he is perhaps slightly better over 6f, he has won over 5f before and gets an extra 89 yards to hopefully mount his winning challenge. His trainer Richard Guest is in good form and although JP hasn’t ridden a winner at York I am hopeful his experience and familiarity with Ginger Ted can lead him home in front at a nice price.
2.30 York Al Khan 11/1 Quite like the look of this Peter Chapple-Hyam 2 year old on what will be only his 2nd appearance on the racecourse. Al Khan made his debut on the 7th July at Doncaster where he was mightily impressive when landing the 6f contest on debut by 2.25L to The Blue Banana as he was drawing right away at the finish. This run was visually impressive under the guidance of Jimmy Fortune and the form of this race looks very good as well. The 2nd, 3rd and 5th horses that day all won on their next runs which clearly demonstrates that this was an above average maiden that he won. Although this race is full of unexposed types, I think there is a lot to like about the manner of victory for Al Khan and he is definitely entitled to come on a lot for that run. His trainer Peter Chapple-Hyam has been in tremendous form in the last 2 weeks, with 3 wins and 5 placed efforts from his last 11 runs. Furthermore, he boasts a very impressive 26% strike rate with his 2 year olds this season and he has a 51.8% win or place rate in the same sphere. He also holds a 18% strike at York over the last 5 seasons, although none of his three 3 year olds have won at the track. Tomorrow Al Khan steps up to 7f which should be absolutely no problem at all and Jimmy Fortune once again takes the ride, which is only 1 of 2 for him tomorrow. Al Khan represents his trainers only runner tomorrow and I think at 11/1 he is vastly overpriced. This seems to be general consensus as there has been a fair bit of money for him already and he has shortened up in quite a few bookmakers. Tomorrow, I can see Al Khan going over about half the price he is now and although it is difficult to envisage the strength of his opposition tomorrow, I definitely believe that his debut effort was excellent and he will turn out to be a very good horse. If he makes the improvement he is entitled to after his debut run I think this colt could play a strong role in the finish and can hopefully come home in front.
Also agree with Al Khan in the 2:30.. think Ancient cross can go well in the first; Nap has to be EAGLES PEAK 4:50 York !!! See separate thread for details
Hello all, As hopefully I will be in the office tomorrow here are my views in advance. The 2.00 is a big field sprint handicap and it amazes me that the top weight Rain Delayed is currently 33/1. Rain Delayed has been running in Pattern races this season and has shown on occasions that he is more than capable of winning a good race if the cards fall right for him. He ran an eyecatching race over course and distance on his penultimate outing, finishing 3 1/2 lengths off the impressive Masamah. He has dropped back down to 101 and therefore the yard think he might as well shoulder the burden in a handicap such as this, and I think his mark is very fair. He runs with the cheek-pieces on for the first time here and if they make him concentrate on the game he should run well. If they work perfectly then I wouldn't be surprised to see him win this. He for me is the best horse in the race. 33/1 EW The Acomb is a very interesting juvenile race and it might show us a new star in the name of Furner's Green. However, I think we have two very interesting horses against the marauding Irish, and they are Al Khan and Fort Bastion.Al Khan won impressively on debut and that Doncaster form is working out well, the yard get some very talented juveniles and this one shows all the signs of being one of the yards best. I worry that on second run this sort of race may prove too much for him. Therefore I side with Fort Bastion, a horse who I have liked this season and I think we might be seeing a perfectly set up race for him tomorrow. I think we will get a honest pace and that will suit this Richard Hannon runner, as he looks a relentless galloper. Last time out I thought he was given a dreadful ride and I expect Hughes to have him prominent enough and should try to stretch them with his long stride. I think at 12/1 he is a great EW bet. 3.05 - Tough race, think Await The Dawn is going to win but he shouldn't be odds on against Midday and Twice Over. 3.40 - Seville should really win, however I still have a few little doubts about him and I would be wary that others might be stronger in the finish. I would back him if he was a little bit bigger in the market. 4.15 I like West Leake Hare but I am worried that they have swapped SDS for M Hills, the horse to me looks like he needs a strong ride and that is something SDS is renowned for. I won't be backing him in this field at shortish odds (5/1) with Hills on top. Nearly A Gift should not be double figures, she ran in the best nursery of the season so far and ran very well to finish second in the race, and only carries 2lbs extra in the handicap. She is the sort that I think will progress with racing and its very interesting to see her put into this race on a track that should suit. 11/1 is a great EW price. 4.50 If it goes in it will win. Ok its a bit tougher than that but I do really like the stubborn Naqshabban. This horse really impressed me with how he looked before his last 'effort' at getting into the stalls, he was supported that day and he looks a very well made colt. I think its fascinating that they keep trying with him, and if he goes in I think he is going to run a big race. 14/1 is far too big for his chances with a run (back with Paddypower if you can!!)
Im going for experince over youth and thats why Im going for midday- she knows how to win these type of G1 races, yes most have been against her own kind but she is on form, Queally knows how to ride her to get the best and I just dont think the Await the Dawn will be able to beat her!
Not everly exited about tomorrows racing, dont think this years Ebor meeting is up to the usual standard however that doesnt meen there isnt a couple of decent bets to be had. Couple for me tomorrow these are 2.30 Furners Green - this looked potentially top class last time and i expect it to win tomorrow, the maktoum horse is obviously a worry but so is richard hills on board it and i think i was slightly more impressed by furners green on debut. 3.05 Namibian - this is typical johnston horse, improving and tought. i think he'll lay it down to seville tomorrow who is a horse i dont think likes a battle. It is a decent looking great voltiguer tomorrow but i think namibian is the one to be on.
Not everly exited about tomorrows racing, dont think this years Ebor meeting is up to the usual standard however that doesnt meen there isnt a couple of decent bets to be had. Couple for me tomorrow these are 2.30 Furners Green - this looked potentially top class last time and i expect it to win tomorrow, the maktoum horse is obviously a worry but so is richard hills on board it and i think i was slightly more impressed by furners green on debut. 3.05 Namibian - this is typical johnston horse, improving and tought. i think he'll lay it down to seville tomorrow who is a horse i dont think likes a battle. It is a decent looking great voltiguer tomorrow but i think namibian is the one to be on.
4.15 York Lunar Deity 10/1 Pretty sick even writing about this horse as I tipped it up 2 starts ago at 66/1 and forgot about him running LTO where he was backed in from 33/1 to 20/1 to win by 5L in a canter. Although I saw the promise demonstrated on his debut, I was even surprised by his manner of victory LTO as he left improved dramatically from his first to runs to win in a canter by 5L to Continuity. Although the form of this race is quite hard to analyse considering most of the horses in behind haven’t run well, the 4th that day Meloneras, who finished 7.25L behind todays selection finished 8L behind Miss Lahar who is a 95 rated horse. With Lunar Deity having been assigned a mark of 82 I think that it is a very fair mark and definitely a mark that he can win off in the near future. 10/1 appears to me to be a very fair price and although its another case of a horse of many unexposed types his victory was very impressive and I think the improvement he is entitled to could see him go close on his handicap debut
Excellent write-ups ROTO. Your argument for Ginger Ted is quite compelling and makes my nap look like it's down the drain. Glad to see most of my other fancies are getting good comments. More good write-ups from Nass. I do enjoy reading these well reasoned selections. I can't come up with any sound reasoning for Silaah in the first and having read the comments here I can think of more reasons to drop him but I can't desert a horse that started off the year by fulfilling my New Year prediction for him on Jan 1st. I'm no more than hopeful (in fact I'm less than hopeful) as I'm really expecting him to run down the field to get his handicap down for the all weather. But how come Fallon is on board? I think I have picked Nearly A Gift most if not every time it's run since its début so I'm not deserting that one now either. Fort Bastion looks a sound bet as his best form was a very good run against Maybe over this distance on soft. I am of course presuming that Maybe would be odds on in this field. If Maybe was running I doubt 3 of these would get within 2l of her, as of course Fort Bastion did.
haha cheers Ron. Ginger Ted will need a lot of luck in running but I think his form and the price allow a compensation for this. I think Silaah has a decent chance myself and see the booking of Fallon as very eye catching.
It looks like im the only one backing Midday over Await the Dawn, I just have a good feeling about her tomorrow! I think she will just prove that she is too good and Await the dawn just needs one or 2 more G1 races (saying that ATD will prbly pi** it tommorw and win by like 6 lengths!!)
I fancy an e/w ginger ted too ROTO- stands a very good chance!! and is a huge price! Nice write ups too!!
Also on the 3.40- Midday and queally has experience he knows how to ride her, get the best out of her and has won plenty on her too! Trainer, horse and jockey all form! What more could you want! vs a young horse and jockey who has not ridden him in a race (as far as I can remember) J'obrien I know he has won some big races and hewill be a top jockey but he just lacks the experince and racing ability compared to queally! IMO only gets these top top ride due to his dad! ATD has not been ridden in a G1 so is unproven so with that has not been ridden round this track and the young jockey of Joseph O'brien that is why im siding with Midday and Tom Queally. Might have been a different story is Ryan was riding him but hes not! It will be a close race and Im hoping my reasons will prevail! So come on MIDDAY!!!
A preview for tommorrow lol ( I know I will get much stick and many will think different!) but oh well!! lol please log in to view this image
Can't even pull your leg WF. Appears to be the only one he'll be riding in those colours tomorrow. It took me age to decide which one to go for. In the end I looked at the times they had been clocking, the fact that ATD has won over 10f on fast going and 12f on soft going, is obviously improving with impressive victories so we don't yet know how good he is. Midday may just be found wanting if it gets any softer but to be honest we won't know how good ATD is until tomorrow and he might find Midday more than he can handle. Toss of a coin almost for me.
Stuck these on new blog http://sportstipsandbets.wordpress.com/ - not really tips but couldn't think of anything else to name the blog that Wordpress would allow. Preview of the Juddmonte on there also. 2.00 YORK RITUAL (15-2 BOG) There is nothing like a good old 20 runner handicap to kick off a big meeting and the fact that it is currently 15-2 the fav shows how competitive this race is. It will be no easy task selecting the winner but RITUAL could reward punters who decide to stay loyal to the 4 yo gelding despite a disappointing effort when finishing last of 19 at Ascot. Ritual is trained by Jeremy Noseda and owned by Highclere and had previously looked a very smart performer in the making when winning well at Sandown on his reappearance, this was his 4th win in a row and if his Ascot run is ignored (surely can not be his true form) a mark of 90 wouldn’t look beyond him. Frankie Dettori takes the ride and I feel the selection is well worth another chance. There are plenty of others with leading claims including the Richard Fahey trained Irish Heartbeat, he looked back to form last time out and was considered as the selection. However the drop to 5f isn’t sure to benefit and for that reason he is passed over. Shropshire is a most interesting contender now dropped back to sprinting, he runs in a first time hood and was 3rd behind Frankel and Excelebration earlier on in the season (Greenham). He is moving in the markets as I type this and this one could run a big race. 2.30 YORK - FORT BASTION E.W (12/ BOG) An excellent renewal of the Acomb Stakes and the feeling by many is that the winner of this race will have to be a very smart horse. Aidan O’Brien runs three here and they all met on debut with Furner’s Green running out an easy winner. There is no reason to think that Battle Of Saratoga or East Meets West can reverse form and the market clearly points this out. Furner’s Green looks a smashing prospect but for me offers little value at 100/30 after only winning a Tipperary maiden. William Haggas’s Entifaadha is a well-bred sort and looked to have plenty of ability himself when running away with a Newmarket maiden on debut, he looks to have leading claims here. However at the prices I prefer FORST BASTION he is still a maiden after three starts but is held in high regard by Richard Hannon and the form of his Chesham Stakes 2nd behind the unbeaten and current 1000 Guineas favorite Maybe is strong form. Hannon reports the tactics were all wrong last time out when he was held up and I expect a much better display here, and at 12/1 he offers good E.W value. The other one that stands out at the prices is Zumbi. He created a nice impression when winning an Ascot maiden over 6f on debut and with this step up to 7f likely to suit he could be a danger at a decent price. 3.05 YORK - SEA MOON (7-2 BOG) A fantastic race we have here for which Seville sets a very high standard. Although Aidan O’Briens Colt is yet to win this season he has finished runner-up at the top-level twice and filled the same spot in the Group 2 Dante at this course earlier in the season. He seems to stay well enough and is the obvious selection and starting point for many in this race. However at 11/8 he is certainly not a bet for me and against some progressive rivals he may well be worth taking on. SEA MOON is the selection, held in high regard by Sir Michael Stoute he is lightly raced and has a nice profile coming in to the race. He should relish this step up in distance and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this one line up in the St Leger next month. Al Kazeem is another who takes a steep rise in class but is also unexposed, he should run well but his stamina is far from assured. Namibian is a tough nut to crack as we found out when he got the better perhaps the classier Fiorente in a battle last time out at Goodwood, once he strikes the front he could be hard to pass again but may well find a few of these too good.
Lucky 15 today: 2:00 York Ginger Ted 4:35 Nottingham Blue Maisey 6:40 Hereford Big Robert 7:00 Folkstone Sluggsy Morant Also fancy two in 2:10 Carlisle am torn between Joshua The First and Dazzlin Bluebell
