As Ron alludes to, the battles between the 3yo's and 4yo's this year will be most uninspiring. Had a bit on Cliffs Of Moher for the Eclipse today, 8/1 looks fair and not many in that ante post market will likely turn up. Could be the perfect race for him!
Fresh from emerging as the top trainer at Royal Ascot for the eighth time and third year in succession, Aidan O'Brien said Wings Of Eagles could lead a five-strong challenge for Saturday's Irish Derby at the Curragh. But it looks certain that the Investec Derby winner will be ridden by Ryan Moore in his quest for a second Classic, rather than Padraig Beggy, the man on board when the colt sprang a 40-1 shock at Epsom, but who is mainly a Ballydoyle work rider. O'Brien ran six in the Derby — Wings Of Eagles and Cliffs Of Moher as well as Capri (sixth), Douglas Macarthur (seventh), Venice Beach (12th ) and The Anvil (17th). The only one of that sextant ruled out of the Irish Derby by O'Brien is Cliffs Of Moher, who is on course for the Coral-Eclipse Stakes at Sandown a week on Saturday. O'Brien said: 'Cliffs Of Moher is being aimed at the Eclipse but that's what we'd be thinking during the week if everything is ok with them. We will find out what we want to run first before we decide what will happen, but Ryan always rides our first strings.' Music to my ears!
Looks like you have a good bet there Stick at 8/1, doesnt look like it will be a penalty kick though. Eminent scheduled to run and not a lot between them on the Derby form, you would imagine the 8/1 about him wont last much longer but cant see him being much shorter than 5/1 on the day. Godolphin will have a big say in the betting, whether they run Barney Roy or Hawkbill or both, suppose it will depend on the ground, if it came up soft 10/1 about Hawkbill would look very good and id fancy him to win it. He was impressive first time out at 1m4 but he showed in the Coronation when running all over Highland Reel that he doesnt stay at the top level. I wouldnt be surprised to see Stoute run Ulysses who won over the course and distance first time out and is still open to improvement after what was probably a career best in the Prince Of Wales. If I knew he was running id have a bit on at 12/1 but I think he is worth chancing for a smaller bet as weather wise, it looks more likely to go against Hawkbill.
It was a tough week at Ascot last week Boris and in those conditions I would not expect to see many running in the near future, if they ran there and had a hard race I think you can pretty much put a line through them for the Eclipse. It is going to cut up to a handful of runners in my view and Cliffs Of Moher will go off around 6/4.
7 of the last 10 Eclipse winners ran at Ascot, most of them placed in the Prince Of Wales. There is going to be at least 3 or 4 very decent horses running and I cant see it be anything less than 9/4 the field on the day, could even be 3/1. Back another 5 and its 10 of the last 15, with Oratorio running in the St James Palace at York so technically 11 of the last 15. Only Golden Horn, Sea The Stars and Hawk Wing have won this after running in the Derby in the last 15 years, and I dont think Cliffs Of Moher or Eminent are in that class.
One of the crucial factors this year Boris is the gap between Royal Ascot and the Eclipse. It is going to make a very big difference. The big reason for getting on early was the notion that he would skip Ascot and many others will not take in two group ones in under 18 days!
I'm off to Sandown for Eclipse day and the one interesting me ante-post currently is Ulysses at 12s. Course and distance winner firmly on the upgrade, and will be half the odds come the day if racing. I think Stoute will let him take his chance - he loves this race and went for both the POW and Eclipse with Ezzoud (Ezzoud finishing 2nd in POW then winning the Eclipse). Here's hoping Ulysses can follow suit
Just looking again at the possible Eclipse lineup, you'd have to give Barney Roy a cracking chance in this. Fits more trends than any other and a huge horse that seems to be crying out for a step up in trip (was thought of as a derby horse). Cliffs Of Moher will no doubt be in the frame but at the prices on the day I'll be backing Barney Roy if Cliffs Of Moher gets backed in (on Ulysses each way at 12s as expect that one to make the frame also if running). Might throw those three in a tricast
Yeah I would be surprised if Barney Roy didnt start fav if he runs and looks likely to if the ground is decent.
Whats the thoughts on the Irish Derby Wings Of Eagles 9/4, Cracksman 11/4, Waldgeist 7/2 This could actually have an affect on the Eclipse market if WOE and Cracksman cant beat the French horse.
In the eclipse I'm going to be bold and say I think Eminent will win. I don't like either of the front 2 in the market especially BR. Sorry if I rustled a few feathers with that 1
Eminent comes into calculations, but Barney Roy has already finished ahead of him once in the 2000 guineas. Don't really see why those places should be reversed, and I expect Barney Roy to be even classier over 10f
Barney Roy and Ulysses amongst 16 declared for the eclipse at five day stage. Have ulysses at 12s and think a place is definitely on, but can't get away from Barney Roy in this for win purposes. The form of these three year olds is a real mess and it wouldn't surprise me greatly to see Cliffs of Moher win, but just think Barney Roy has the greater scope
Hannon doesnt sound ultra confident that Barney Roy will stay, Doyle seems to think he will. Just read that Mark Johnston considering running Permian, and Jack Hobbs still in the picture who would undoubtedly be the best horse in the race if on a going day.
I think the 3yo are probably the worst generation I can ever remember, so I'd be happy to put a line through anything beaten in what was the worst Derby I can recall for the Eclipse. I'm taking the view that if Cliffs Of Moher and Eminent couldn't win that race then they won't be good enough to win the Eclipse. If I was going with any of the 3yo id say Barney Roy has the best chance. I'm still not convinced he's high class though, I think he's just the best of a bad bunch. Decorated Knight at 9/1 is the only horse that would appeal to me. He's not a superstar, but I think he's set a solid standard in his last 2 runs, and I think a similar effort in the Eclipse will probably be good enough to win. Jack Hobbs if he could get back to his best form would have a big chance, but you'd have to trust that John Gosden can get him back in race winning shape, after finishing last at Ascot. So I think Decorated Knight is the safest bet here.
Were you in a coma throughout last year? On the face of it I don't think they are a great bunch but they'd have to go some to be as bad as last years crop or Camelot's generation. I still think it's too early to say regarding the ability of the 3yos but Saturday will give some pointers and the real acid test will be when (hopefully) some of them will line up against the likes of Highland Reel in the King George. I'll probably be leaving this one alone but would agree Decorated Knight looks the best bet and good value on his recent form.
Ulysses will finish ahead of Decorated Knight for me. Has the course form in the book this season, only a short head between them in the POW, and just think Stoute's yard starting to hit form. Crowley also on board now and he's got plenty to prove after being shunted off Eminent. Also like Mittens of his in the distaff assuming he's given the chance to back up a takingly comfortable victory at the weekend
