Have done well at Ascot ante post over the years so thought i'd start a thread to see if anyone has any fancies that we can get on this week at decent prices. I have picked out two fillies that i'm on so far. SO MI DAR - Prince of Wales Stakes - 9/1 (coral) This is my standout punt of the week. Essentially the price is held up by the fact we don't know if she will run, but i'm happy to take the chance that she will. The stable has the second favourite Jack Hobbs but there is every chance that one won't run - being notoriously fragile connections are wary to run on good to firm ground, and with 10 days of sun forecast between now and next week that's what we can assume we're looking at. So Mi Dar goes well fresh so the minor issues she has encountered this season don't bother me - if she runs then you've got to reckon that she'll be 100% firing at home. So Mi Dar beats Ulysses all day long for me (that one the favourite at around 3/1) and I just think that if she runs and is fit she wins, so not messing about with each way. Think she's 7/1 with sky bet NRNB so that might be the safe way to go. LADY AURELIA - Kings Stand Stakes - 4/1 (various) 4/1 just seems big. All speed, 5f on rattling fast ground should be perfect for this one. Even in her one defeat she was probably 4 lengths up at the 5f marker. Over 6f she might be vulnerable to a finisher, but just can't see anything other than her burning off in front, being 5 lengths up with a furlong to go and winning by a couple.
Qemah 5/1 Duke Of Cambridge Looks a big price to me. I don't think Laugh Aloud beat much the last day. Qemah should come on alot for her first run considering the issues the yard had at the start of the season.
Really liked Qemah but also Smart Call in that race. Both should come on for their last run, and both possess form which should see them right in the mix in a Group 2. I was thinking of chancing Smart Call as the ground should be what that one is really after. Not sure if she's a guaranteed runner, can't find anything on it, but considering they expected Smart Call to come on plenty for that run and also that it was on unsuitable ground i think she could run a huge race
I’m not being facetious but why would they go for a Group 2 with a dual Group 1 winning filly?!? Last time out was a mere ‘prep’, at a lower level and that was understandable, but why would they want to contest a Group 2 when the filly was fully tuned and ready to run for her life?!? Can’t think of any reason unless they have suddenly formed the opinion that the filly has regressed and isn’t up to the ‘top table’ anymore. Am though a big fan of Qemah and was at the course last year, yanking my topper skywards, when she won the Coronation.
Queen Anne is a tricky one. Ribchester is far too short as he's not as good on fast ground, but obviously still the most likely winner. One i like in that one is OH THIS IS US. Hannon indicates that the Queen Anne the likely target and I think he could surprise a few. Will have a little go on that one each way
Fair point but Ribchester aside that it a very weak ‘Queen Anne’. The level of opposition is the reason he’s odds-on. Ribchester aside (and should you really run scared from one horse given the fragilities of the breed???) I wouldn’t have thought Qemah had anything to fear from anything currently in the field for the meets opening contest. If Qemah goes for the Wednesday race (I won’t refer to its official title and the horrendous scrounger it is named after) I hope she obliges as I’ve always liked her but can see little to be gained from winning it, for her, given the fact that she is already a dual Group 1 winning filly. Surely (unless as I said before she’s regressed in their opinion) connections didn’t keep her in training to run at Group 2 level!
Le Brivido in the Jersey Stakes @ 5/1 I think is a huge price. Only went down a shoulder to duel classic winner Brametot which must be the best form on offer.
I would envisage that Mr O’Brien will have a cart load of winners and Wes Ward will wade in with a few as well (his McErin is rumoured to be, and I quote, ‘a monster’ according to today’s media). However, the one that I would be hugely intested in, if he turns up, would be CARNTOP in the 12 Furlong handicap on the Friday. Placed at Listed level last term he also ran 5th in the ’16 edition of the ‘King Edward VII’. His form tailed off somewhat in his final run last season and his opening one this but he returned to form very nicely on Derby Day when a respectable 3rd, in a handicap, at Epsom. Carntop is still on that perch and should he go to the 12 furlong handicap at the meet I think he will go very, very close. And my goodness if Princess Camilla’s horse obliges in King Philip’s race expect to see a multitude of toppers being yanked skywards.
Next one i'm adding to my portfolio: FAS - Commonwealth Cup - 20/1 Though not a keen fan of following collateral form too closely in such sprints, Fas thrashed Mrs Danvers over 6f on good ground in Chantilly, and on one formline Mrs Danvers ties in closely with that of strong favourite Caravaggio. Though that one is definitely the most likely winner I just think at 20/1 we could get a real run for our money with Fas - that latest performance was really impressive and they earmarked this race for him immediately afterwards.
Final selection: SHEIKHZAYEDROAD - Gold Cup - 14/1. Continually underrated throughout his career, sheikhzayedroad actually seems to be getting better with age. Should go well on the ground and one guarantee is that he will be produced late and has a decent burst of pace. Too far back in last years race and ended up only finishing 5l behind order of st george. Really like this one each way. And that concludes my ante post selections: Tuesday - OH THIS IS US ew - 40/1 - LADY AURELIA win - 4/1 Wednesday - SMART CALL win - 8/1 - SO MI DAR win - 9/1 Thursday - SERENADA ew - 33/1 - SHEIKHZAYEDROAD ew - 14/1 Friday - FEZ ew - 16/1 See how that bunch get on and I leave myself open to much ridicule when only two of the seven go to post in those races! Good luck all.
The perils of ante post right there. Wouldn't expect more than one more to fall by the wayside and also expect every selection to be considerably shorter on the day. As always depends on getting a winner, if one of those comes in then it should be a profitable week
I'll join you on terrakova, impeccable breeding and visually very impressive. Vezirabad is out of the ascot gold cup now, would be very hopeful Sheikhzayedroad at least places now. I also had a little bit on Harrison earlier at 66/1 for that with paddys (33/1 elsewhere). Could improve massively for the step up in trip, connections convinced he's an out and out stayer, and actually hasn't got much to find at all on collateral form over shorter.
I've added three more in races that I think are open and where I fancy more than one. Confident of a couple of winners out of this lot, hopefully at nice prices. The three i've added are HESHEM in the Queen Anne, GOLDREAM in the Kings Stand, and OPAL TIARA in the Duke of Cambridge. The former beat Ribchester fair and square from what I can see in Meydan in March on soft ground. I think the ground here will actually play more to Heshem's strengths than Ribchester's, and the only thing tempering enthusiasm is whether connections will go for the Prince of Wales with this one instead, so small stakes. Goldream romped this race on good to firm in 2015, and if anything is to take on Lady Aurelia i'd back it to be this one. Don't rate Marsha's chances at all. Opal Tiara will also have optimum conditions in the Duke of Cambridge and brings top notch form to the table. Here are my final selections, not adding any more. Sit back and watch the show next week now. TUESDAY Queen Anne - HESHEM - 12/1 (EW) - OH THIS IS US - 40/1 (EW) Kings Stand - LADY AURELIA - 4/1 (WIN) - GOLDREAM - 16/1 (EW) WEDNESDAY Duke of Cambridge - SMART CALL - 9/1 (WIN) - OPAL TIARA - 20/1 (EW) THURSDAY Ribblesdale - SERENADA - 33/1 (EW) Gold Cup - SHEIKHZAYEDROAD - 14/1 (EW) - HARRISON - 66/1 (EW) FRIDAY Commonwealth Cup - FAS - 16/1 (EW)
I honestly don't think ante-post bets are worth it at venues like the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot. Heck, SP's are always pretty fair at these important venues, much more so than at run-of-the-mill meetings? Anyway, I wish anyone having an ante-post bet the best of luck and hope that their selections actually do run.
You may well be right. Have always done ok and usually show a profit when I do ante post like this (only do it for cheltenham and ascot), but I only do it because it's how I enjoy betting most. All psychological really - I write the money off in my head when I punt ante post, and so even if only a couple of those next week come in each way I consider it bonus money. As long as you are confident the selections will turn up in the right races, it's probably still just about worth it. I did my dough on So Mi Dar but I'd expect 9 of those 10 selections above to turn up in those races - Heshem and/or injuries the only doubt. Some of the bigger price punts could be half the price on the day, and i'd reckon there's a chance that 9 out of the 10 will go off shorter than the odds I got them at. Time will tell!
I would think Royal Ascot is safer than Cheltenham. Nobody had a clue what was running in what at Cheltenham; nightmare for ante post backers.
Forgot to add the obvious. With ante-post one is also gambling on the going and, for flat racing, the draw in certain races. Have had luck with ante-post bets a few times in the past, but don't do them anymore.
