Article: Await The Dawn | Horse Racing

This horse finally gets his opportunity at G1 level in the Juddmonte at York, but without wanting to knock the horse I find it quite unbelievable how much respect he is getting in the Breeders Cup Classic market, he is the 5/1 favourite. For a start he has never even competed in a G1, nevermind on dirt. I know he's bred for the dirt, but you still wouldn't want to be backing a dirt debutant in the strongest dirt race, in the world. Either the American horse's this season are one of there worst lot ever or Await the Dawn is being majorly overhyped. you take into account the record of Europeans in the classic on dirt aswell, and you would realy need your head testing to be backing him at a single figure price.

So far his form this season looks good, but I would hardly call it world class G1 form, beating the likes of Harris Tweed and Distant Memories by a few lengths isn't going to win a Breeders Cup classic. Either way the Juddmonte should tell us more, and whilst he does look the most likely winner i wont be in any rush to get involved at 5/4

 

They are short prices but clearly the bookmakers have more respect for Mr O Brien and his charges than many posters on here. Then again you could equally say that about Seven Barrows and one or two not 606 reprobates .

I must say the prospect of York isn't exactly setting the pulse racing this year and the Judmont doesn't lok that great. I'm a big fan of await the dawn but would agree that he needs to perform at group 1 level before I would consider backing him in the Breeders.

 

there is a 'harbinger' feel about Await The Dawn and look what Harbinger did when stepped up to Group 1 level for the first time. Progressing up groups gives the horse more experience and confidence when winning. I expect a big run from Await The Dawn.

 

Yes the yanks horses are the worst in living memory.Most years AWTD would start in high double figures.I still wouldnt touch him with a barge pole even in a weak year.

 

If the 5/4 Await The Dawn is an ante-post bet rather than non-runner no-bet, his followers might be advised to get on now as the Juddmonte International is looking like being the latest poorly-contested Group 1 on this summer’s racing calendar.

As it stands at the moment, the sponsor is likely to be represented by recent course and distance winner Twice Over and there are only a couple of other respectable candidates who may show up.

The main warning to punters would be that the race has a reputation for upsets.

 

I think Await The Dawn has looked impressive. He won at Chester in convincing style and at Royal Ascot too. It must be remembered that the soft ground at Ascot would not have been to his liking. Provided he gets a sounder surface here it would surely be a surprise and a disappointment if he were to be beaten. At this stage he looks a top classs prospect but he now needs to prove it on the track.

As far as the US is concerned i think there current crop is widely regarded as one of the worst ever. They haven't any really strong contenders for the Classic, hence why Await The Dawn is favourite based on his potential rather than his actual achievments. I'm not sure i'd want to be backing him at that price at this stage but equally well think he is a deserving favourite considering the opposition. It is probable that an impressive win in the International will bring about a collapse in his price so i'm sure an argument can be made that the 13/2 should be taken now if you expect him to win at York.

And also agree that there is something of a Harbinger feel about him.

 

Has anyone else noticed that in Breeders Cup meetings over the past 10 years or so, a lot of Aidan O'Brien's horses tend to be very slowly away from the stalls for some strange reason? Most of them seem to lose any chance they have at the start, in my opinion. For that reason, as much as anything else, I'd be against Await The Dawn even if the current crop of US 10f dirt horses aren't up to much.

 

End of the day Await The Dawn, probably does look hard to oppose in the Juddmonte, the only realistic challenger to me is Twice Over, if he can show his best form, not sure why Midday is the second favourite. I've always liked Midday, but that's up against her own sex, I don't feel she will ever be good enough to beat the boys. Sariska was Middays superior, and she came up short against the boys, one of them being against Twice Over in the Champion stakes. People have clearly overreacted to Midday winning her 3rd Nassau, all she beat was Snow Fairy and look how poorly she ran in the Eclipse, laying Midday is like printing money if she lines up in the Juddmonte. If Henry Cecil has a brain he will go for the Yorkshire Oaks instead where she would have a favourites chance.

Not sure there's slot else in the race so perhaps I was a little hasty to say ATD isn't worth a bet at 5/4, I may decide on Twice Over if I get a good price, but I wouldn't rule out a bet on ATD now I've checked the entries

 

If Juddmonte were serious about winning this race they'd have kept Frankel in it. Apart from Await The Dawn there's nothing else to be worried about. This race looked like a golden opportunity to step Frankel up in trip and they've fluffed it. Maybe they were worried about So You Think turning up but now that he's going elsewhere, Prince Khalid should have reconsidered about running Frankel.

I can't see why Midday shouldn't go for the Yorkshire Oaks, if I owned her I'd definitely be going for that.

 

CG.....I personally wouldn't be to worried about SYT, to me he doesn't have anymore ability than ATD. He scrambled to beat Workforce in the Eclipse over a trip to short for Workforce, and even Nathaniel beat Workforce more convincingly over Workforce's supposed optimum trip. We all seen what happened at Ascot to the Aussie champ, and he still has it all to prove, beating a run of the mill 125 horse like Workforce over an inadequate trip just doesn't cut it with me. To me SYT is a 126 10f horse. Frankel would laugh at SYT and beat him more convincingly than He did Canford Cliffs, even over 10f. I don't think they avoided the Juddmonte to avoid any horse why would they? There are very few 130 performers out there nevermind 140 horse's like Frankel. They have probably skipped to the QE2 because they don't want to risk over racing him, but mark my words it has nothing to do with SYT

 

The American division is probably the worst ever and they always had the BC Classic in mind for Await The Dawn. Wouldn't have to be anything special at all to beat the yanks this year, would only have to handle the dirt.

There is still plenty of 6/1 and 13/2 about for the Classic and it could be a class apart, the American horses are so poor its not even funny anymore. Most ppl who like Await The Dawn are already on at much bigger prices because of the way connections have been talking about him and how he is a BC Classic horse. Id be very surprised if Obrien ever gets a better chance of winning it than this year but you never no with America struggling to produce class.

 

When I first wrote on this thread, I had read on the Grauniad website that only Twice Over was planning on showing up for the sponsor in the International but now it transpires that Midday will be going for this rather than the Yorkshire Oaks. If that is the case I would definitely be in favour of taking another chance with her against the colts, although I wonder how the race is going to pan out as there does not appear to be any obvious pace in the probable entries. The French horse Cirrus Des Aigles is running at Deauville and will not be travelling to York.

 

I think Midday as a great chance if she runs to anything like Her Nassau form. Await The Dawn looked impressive at Ascot winning on horrible ground and although hes unexposed at this level I still fancy Midday over the field... Shame So You Think/Frankel haven't turned up!

 

I think Midday has a good chance! Tom Queally seems to have opted for her ahead of Twice Over so he would seem to think she's the better of the two! Tired towards the end of the Coronation Cup against SNA over 12f so back at 10f I think she'll be thereabouts at the end if running to her best!
ATD has done nothing wrong against lesser opposition so the step up is needed but I don't think he's a nailed on dead cert?

Still smiling at "If Henry Cecil has a brain"...oh dear!

 

Not so.Fantastic race for punters.

In the last seventeen years the longest priced winner has been 8/1 with over 50% of favourites prevailing.In fact,one of the best races in the calendar for form/fancied horses.

 

Well York is a pretty fair track, where the best usually prevail, so the favourite stat doesn't surprise me

 

Dexter, when you start your argument with “the last seventeen years” that immediately makes me suspicious that eighteen years ago an outsider beat a hotpot. You did not bother to say how many runners have gone to post in any of those seventeen years. When there are only six or seven going to post virtually every year, it is not unrealistic to expect half of the favourites to have been successful.

If the 8/1 shot beat an odds-on favourite, most punters would consider that an upset. Was that the Italian horse Electrocutionist?

Notnowcato was not Sir Michael Stoute’s first string in 2006 let alone the favourite. If I recall correctly One So Wonderful won in a three-way photo for Luca Cumani but she would not have been at the top of the betting.

Twenty years ago a five-year-old Terimon won after running second in The Derby two years earlier. Eighteen years ago I suspect that Ezzoud was not fancied when he won the first of his two Internationals. He may not even have been favourite the following year.

I did not even mention the inaugural running – but now I have done.

King Shergar obviously has no intention of taking out a bookmaking license for the Ebor meeting. Having been there for the last twenty five years, I can tell you that it is a bookmakers’ benefit. The Yorkshire crowd will pile onto favourites at any price so the bookies shorten them up with alacrity. As a punter I will certainly be steering clear of most of the handicaps unless I can find respectable prices in the bookies in the morning before going to the track.

 

I'm prepared to oppose Await The Dawn with Midday, who has far more solid credentials - but Midday doesn't want more rain.

 

OddDog, how much are you going to give me to not back Seville? I have managed to get it beaten twice this year in two attempts.

If O’Brien wins the Acomb, it might not be the one that his son is riding – he also has Battle Of Saratoga and East Meets West. I wonder if Entifaadha can live up to his expensive price tag for Richard Hills.

Like london_man, I will be opposing Await The Dawn.