Good evening to everyone and welcome to the NOT606 Cheltenham Preview Evening. Today, we’re joined by Talal, Boily, Ron, Bob, Top Class, Nass, Woolcombe Folly, Wardy and Barney. We’ve been talking backstage and there’s some very strong opinions amongst the panel so it’s shaping up to be a very informative evening. Let’s be honest before we start. We’Ve had an almost unprecedented number of absentee’s this year, especially top table animals. That will make a huge difference in this years results. Some races are now lacking a touch of class but are much more competitive as a result so every cloud has a silver lining and that will have to be it this season. There’s too many races to go through each one in detail so we’ll hit the Grade Ones and pick out a couple of handicaps each day as well.
DAY ONE: SUPREME NOVICES HURDLE: BOB – We’ve been hit by another late withdrawal due to injury in the form of Movewiththetimes. I know, speaking to a few before we started, that this was a popular choice for the panel. We’ll have to make some changes on the hoof. NASS – This race is intriguing for me, because we have the usual mix of talented horses with unbeaten records (Melon) and horses who have proven their ability in handicaps (Ballyandy). Therefore we have a test of untapped potential, versus proven race form. Last year it was Altior who came out best, he came into the race on the back of four wins over hurdles. This year however its the much more inexperienced Melon (1 run) who heads many of the markets, against Moon Racer (2 runs) with the more experienced Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes (4 runs each) being more interesting for me. They met last time and Ballyandy came out on top, both travelled supremely well into the race against a competitive handicap field, and it was Ballyandy who went through with his effort in a more professional manner. I think that Movewiththetimes is a horse who has developed with his racing, and he can still improve further for running on spring ground in a big field race, and that is what he should get here in the Supreme. Interestingly we have a son of Zebedee short in the market!! He should bounce over his hurdles, and I do think Bunk Off Early is intriguing here for Willie Mullins, he has really good form in the book with Bacardys and the drop down to this trip should be perfect for him. However, I like a horse with experience in this race, and I am not sure that we have an Altior, Douvan or Vautour in the field this year and therefore I would have been with Movewiththetimes. RON – Melon is not my idea of the winner having had one race over hurdles and beaten nothing that has boosted the form. Yes, he won easily but for me he hasn’t produced the form to warrant such cramped odds which must be due only to the confidence behind him from Willie. I’m looking to go against the age stat in selecting Moonracer, a 3 times Cheltenham winner with Yanworth among his victims in the past. Hopefully he will line up and not go for the CH. It’s Moon Racer with a saver on Melon. If Moon Racer doesn’t line up, I guess it’s Melon’s race to lose but he would probably start odds on. BOILY – A race that Mullins had dominated up until last year when Altior bucked the trend. Melon has long been the Mullins whisper horse for this bit I can't be taking 3/1 on a horse that has only ran once and the horses he beat that day have hardly franked the form. Ballyandy has Cheltenham form from last year when winning the Bumper and has probably ran the best trial for this race when winning the Betfair last time out. They will go a good pace in this and that will only aid his cause more and I can't see him not placing. TWARD – If Melon was in any other yard, he would be double digits at minimum, horrible price. Bunk off Early started on the flat, and the stats simply don't look good for those horses with only 1/49 being placed. I like the Moon Racer form, but the Cheltenham race he won, was won at a snails pace and the bumper winner had the turn of foot. This race can be a grueling test and I prefer Movewiththetimes but that’s now a NR which is frustrating. BOB – I’ve been doing some trading on this race throughout the year on Betfair and I’ve set up a decent position. I have Melon at an average of 14.0 and laid off the stake so he’s running for me for free. I backed Neon Wolf at 13.0 and laid that off for a profit at 9.8. I’ll just be sitting back now and watching without stressing because any result is fine. On form, if Moon Racer runs elsewhere, Ballyandy will hose up. If Melon is as good as the chat then he’ll provide some competition. Too many ifs and buts for me to get stuck in now. TOP CLASS – Ballyandy and Movewiththetimes ran two superb races in preparation for this in the Betfair hurdle and are rightly considered in the market here. They frank the form of Moon Racer but surely he will head to the Champion Hurdle given his age and the circumstances of that race this year. As a result, the aforementioned two will be tough to beat and I can see them both being in the first 4 home. I really liked Charli Parcs potential before he ran that odd race when falling at Kempton LTO. With him looking likely for the Triumph, the one left who is the real dark horse here is CRACK MOME, who will have needed to do some growing up but I reckon a fast pace and better ground might just see him in a positive light and perhaps he can kick off the festival for WPM as an outsider for the Graham Wylie team. I won’t be getting carried away as this is the first of many minefields of festival week! TALAL - The only A/P bet I’ve got is Melon at 12’s, placed five minutes before his one and only race so far. Looks a pretty weak supreme with the subsequent withdrawals. Looks like Melon only had Ballyandy to beat, and am not a fan of Ballyandy thus far. A mate I know that works at 365 is heavily on Melon- and the sources he has at the Mullins yard are saying Melon looks the real deal. Won’t be topping up my A/P bet on the day, will be having a slight e/w on Pingshou though for the Tizzards. C/D winner and will appreciate the ground. 50’s is big.
ARKLE Let’s not waste our time. CHAMPION HURDLE TC – I think Moon Racer runs here and think he will run really well. If there is one I had to pick to win it though I would go with BUVEUR D’AIR, as he has rock solid form behind Altior and in front of Petit Mouchoir. I don’t like his price given he has only had one run over hurdles this year but it sounds like he’s had an uninterrupted season and he looks a hurdler- quick, nimble, and bags of pace. The softer it is the better for him. I think he could have finished closer in last years Supreme and think he will be put into the race about a furlong earlier this time. Hoping to avail some 5/1 + on the day if they plunge Yanworth as I anticipate. WOOLY The weakest champion hurdle field for a while, however the most exciting in years too, with no standout horse anyone of them can win! Questions over Yanworth, can he really win a champion hurdle with his jumpng and will he get outpaced in a 2m hurdle on the sharper old course, Buveur D’Air was sent chasing, but didn’t go the way I suspect connections were hoping, so have sent him back over hurdles and although seemed impressive enough lto when winning at Sandown it didn’t really prove anything there are still question marks; Petit Mouchoir- bombed out at Cheltenham last year which would be a massive worry and lost to BVD at Aintree and hard to see any reason why he would reverse the form. Brain Power a top notch handicapper which has been said a top handicapper can perform up to the level of a grade 2/3 horse but needs good ground and again seems to struggle at Cheltenham. On good ground MyTentOrYours who came second twice in this race looks to be abit of a forgotten horse, although there has been money for him in the last few days. One I do like at a huge price is Wicklow Brave. Won the county hurdle 2 years ago which looks as strong as this race, has been off since a hectic flat season, but looks to have been saved for this, will get the trip, has the pace for 2miles and was running well on the flat and @ 33/1 could be a big price ew. However, my main pick is for Moon Racer. He has some of the strongest form in the field beating the likes of Ballyandy twice and Movewiththetimes. Now a 8 year old, this lightly raced horse has only raced the twice over hurdles which can be a concern especially as there was doubts over his build up to March. But he raced a good handful of times in bumpers s he’s got racing experience there. It was interesting however, the connections kept him on the flat to keep his novice status in tact. Reports have come out that he has been working like a dream at home and his age makes up for the fact he is a novice- they wouldn’t be going for this race had he not been sparkling, This fella will take all the beating imo as he is a one of the only genuine 2m hurdlers in the field! SBC – In any normal year if you said the Champion Hurdle winner was going to be an animal who had run just once over hurdles in ‘open’ company and against just 3 rivals, in the process, then you would be sectioned PDQ. However, the most important thing to note re the 2017 renewal of this race is that this is not a normal year and that we are left with a woefully weak affair with little strength in depth. I therefore think such a scenario, as outlined above, is more than likely. Mr Henderson’s BUVEUR D’AIR was a Grade 1 winner, as a novice last term, but the decision was made over the summer to turn his attentions to the big ‘uns. Although he was 2/2 in that sphere the old boy never really totally convinced as a chaser and so he returned to hurdles last month and won the Listed ‘Contenders’ at Sandown in effortless fashion. The way that Buveur D’air travelled and then cruised into the lead that day was most eye-catching and I think he has more than enough in his locker to win a moderate renewal. TW – This obviously isn't the vintage renewal it should be, but it is very competitive. I like Brain Power, he likely didn’t like the ground on his seasonal debut but since then he has made 2 very competitive handicap hurdles look like a stroll in the park, beating stablemate Consul Du Thaix who to me is/was 1 of the best handicapped horses in training. It is hard to weigh up handicap form to graded form but on last years evidence he wasn’t far behind, finishing 3rd to Don't Touch it in the Punchy champion novice race, with Petit Mouchoir 1 in front. BOB – Not for me this year. You could back 5 in it and not hit the frame and conversely you could back the same 5 and get the 1,2,3,4,5. Nothing is good enough to win the race. MARES RACE WARDY – The horse I like here is Jer's Girl (2/2 at 2m 4f) both of which were grade 1's. She was getting mares and 4 year old allowances then and you could argue that now into open company she is well exposed. Both runs this year have been in 2 mile grade 1's in which she has been outpaced but she should be seen to better effect here. BOB – I’d be all over VVM if Ruby had picked her but he’s gone with Limini so you’ve got to worry VVM is not 100%, and I think whatever wins this will have to be tip top. Best Mares race we’ve ever had at the Festival with three or four genuinely good mares. None up to Quevega or Annie but sometimes a touch of competition is better than a procession. TC - I am taking a position on Limini to LAY her. I don’t know if her form from last year is all that special and I’m not sure if 2m 4f is her trip. She seems more a 2 miler to me compared to the great Quevega who stayed on so well to win this many times. Suspect Apples Jade might be able to make this a real test and burn everyone off but will probably lay Limini rather than back Apples Jade, just in case she disappoints again. RON – This looks like a very hot mares’ race on paper but, to keep it simple, I reckon it is a 3 horse (sorry mare) race between Vroum Vroum Mag,Apple's Jade and Limini and I expect them to finish in that order but not a race I would bet on.
OTHER RACES ON DAY ONE: ULTIMA HANDICAP NASS Holywell is so well handicapped, but Jonjo isn't having a great season, I mean he is weighted the same as Junction Fourteen!! If the top weight stays in, he will be running off 11 stone and that might be ideal for him to recapture a bit of old form. However, he might just be regressive and that is why I am swerving him and going for The Druids Nephew. I think his trainer has been very shrewd and has kept him back for the spring campaign, and this is a perfect start to that. He is a previous winner of this race, off exactly the same mark as he is due to run off here. He swerved the festival last year and ran at Doncaster instead, before heading to the Grand National, and I think its a wise move to target this race and then Aintree, with the gap between the two being the best part of a month. BOB – Noble Endeavour looks laid out for this. Loves Cheltenham. The trainer is a master at getting them ready for the day and I can’t see him running a bad race. The only negative is Davy Russell in the plate. TALAL – The Druid’s Nephew looks really well weighted to regain the race he won 2 years ago. Fehily on board too is a plus. Won I also like at a price is Annacotty-finally the handicapper has dropped him a few pounds after running for a year lugging top weight around. 40s is nice for this C/D winner. BOILY – As always a tricky start to the 2017 Cheltenham handicaps, alot of horses come into this with a great chance but the one I like is Henry Parry Morgan at 12/1. Ran at the Sandown finale in April last year and ran well before falling at the 19th fence. He ran off of a mark of 149 that day and I think the Bowens thought that a handicap at Cheltenham should be the plan and they have campaigned him appropriately and have now got him to run off a mark of 142. WARDY – I am really keen on Heron Heights in the Ultima, he is 30 on the list and should creep in near the foot of the weights. Novices have a decent record in this race although he has good experience with 7 runs behind him. What I like more so is that he was a course and distance winner in October. You can ignore his recent run as this was at 2miles. CLOSE BROTHERS TALAL – The Druid’s Nephew looks really well weighted to regain the race he won 2 years ago. Fehily on board is a plus. One I also like at a price is Annacotty-finally the handicapper has dropped him a few pounds after running for a year lugging top weight. 40s is nice for this C/D winner. BOB Romain De Senam did me a favour last year and i’ve backed him to do it again this year. Off a couple of lbs higher than last year, i think he’s realistically handicapped to be competitive in a big race. Nicholls has had a naff year and i think that, in part, is because the only races he can win at the Festival are the handicaps so he’s tailored his year around manipulating marks and getting horses into races off low ratings. This horse will be the first to test my theory so we’ll have to wait and see. WOOLY – All over Value At Risk NASS – A compressed handicap and a half!! this is basically a stakes race for horses rated 140. As such, we might be ready to see one of the closest races of the festival, or we might find that the handicapper has dropped a right clanger! I think it's likely to be the latter and horses that intrigue me are Romain De Senam and Mixboy. Romain De Senam went close in the Fred Winter and has always looked a chaser in the making for me. Yet he turns up here with only one chasing win from four attempts and a handicap mark one pound higher than the one he ran so well from over hurdles in the Fred Winter. Mixboy is the opposite in many ways, he is on a great run of form, and has got in because of what he has done over fences. He could well be a horse who continues to improve into a 150 horse in time, and as such could be one that is to be followed here for a northern raider!!
DAY TWO NEPTUNE TAM The 1 I like here is the mare Shattered Love for Elliott. She has won 3 of her 5 hurdle starts with her 2 defeats coming from leading mare novices Airlie Beach and Let's Dance. This step up in trip is what she needs, given she won a 3m PTP as a 4year old. Her form stacks up well and will receive a mares allowance. Nass – I don't do very well in this or the potato race, and that I think is because we never really know which race horses are going for until a couple of days before. I prefer Bacardys over Neon Wolf, and I think it will be about the classier horses who seem to be at the top of the market. The one at a bit of a price that looks to have a good chance is Willoughby Court, and if he lines up in this at double figure prices, he would be a value bet for me. RON – Finians Oscar is well regarded but for reasons mentioned in the Supreme, I will not look past Neon Wolf. The interesting one for me at 20/1 is Beyond Conceit, by Galileo out of a Danehill mare and trained by Nicky Henderson. If NW doesn’t run (ground dependent) then it’s Beyond Conceit ew BOILY Very simple now that Finians Oscar is out, Neon Wolf will run and win. Jumps so fast and is a lovely horse for the future, Noel will go from the front and not see another rival. BARNEY NEON WOLF has come a long way in a short space of time since making his hurdling bow, at Exeter, on New Year’s Day. He won nicely on that occasion but it was last time out that he really announced himself as the old boy easily won a Grade 2 event, at Haydock Park, by 9 lengths from the useful Elgin. The way Neon Wolf ran on that day you would envisage him being even better over further and I can see him relishing the step up in trip and being even better over 21 furlongs. Looks potentially top notch and should prove very hard to beat here. TALAL – I hope Neon Wolf proves how potentially special he is by winning this. I will be backing Willoughby Court though at the prices; hasn’t done a lot wrong this season. Lovely, scopey horse; look forward to him jumping a fence next season. TOP CLASS With Finians Oscar out, can you replace with MESSIRE DES OBEAUX in the Neptune please? Rock solid, consistent, stays well. E/w play. The only other interesting one if he were to be given the green light is INVITATION ONLY, who has apparantly started working better now. Might be kept back for Punchestown though. RSA TALAL – Weakest renewal at the festival IMO. I can’t be having Might Bite at 5/2 but sort of sums up the poor quality of the race. The only thing I like is Whisper at 8/1. He has winning course form and has Davy on board who knows his way round here. RON – All along I have been drawn to Mite Bite. But it seems he hasn’t beaten much and may not be good value at 3/1. I’m more leaning towards Whisper and American. Whisper beat Cole Harden 2 years ago and he had solid form 3 years ago. Since then he had only 3 runs before this season, Two of those were against the mighty Thistlecrack (completely thrashed). He has been so lightly raced that maybe he has had problems. However, this season he is 2 from 2, both at Cheltenham. He is available at 12/1 and looks decent value at those odds. American is also 2 from 2 this season and last time out beat Champers on Ice, who is no slouch. Noel Fehily on board is always a bonus 10/1 still available. NASS I would absolutely love Singlefarmpayments to turn up in this. I think he would have a cracking chance at lovely prices. However, he will probably be aimed at handicaps, and then i'd be looking at taking on the market principles with something that jumps and stays. Royal Vacation ticks those boxes. WOOLY Before his fall Might Bite was recording a faster time than when Thistlecrack was winning his King George, but his surface record tells a story itself , just two wins at chasing at long odds on and the positive of him winning at cheltneham has been outdone by the two flops he has bought the last twice and looks to relish a flat track; Alpha Des Obeaux the form of his world hurdle run is the best in the field and the fact he was 12/1 for the RSA in January last year proves how much respect they have for him as a chaser but has bled and really hasn’t lived up to that hype. American on soft ground has to be feared but looks very ground dependant. One I like at a bigger price is Whisper, has not been given the credit he deserves has some cracking form round Cheltenham, will get the trip and on his hurdle form has to be respected too; BOILY Interesting race as Might Bite has looked the real deal in his last few race but will he handle the crowd, occasion and race? At the odds I would think not. So who will? Alpha Des Obeaux was the Irish good thing in the World Hurdle last year and went well for a long way until being put oin his place by Thistlecrack. This is no bad thing and Mouse did something I like with chasers and that's the fact he ran him early in the season and got the experience needed. He then put him away for a mini break and will have him ready for the big day. BOB – Yes, I’d agree with Boil in that I think Alpha Des Obeaux is likely to be right there. WARDY I have been looking at angles to get Might Bite beaten, but I can't find it. He seems to have a bit of "Coneygree" about him where he just gallops the opposition into submission. He was about to win the Kauto Star in impressive style before falling at the last, the form has been franked since. Too many question marks surrounding his opponents. At a price I would fancy O O Seven to be ridden patiently with a view of picking up the pieces as the race unfolds.
QMCC Let’s move on OTHER DAY TWO RACES: FRED WINTER BARNEY To my eye there is a potential blot on the old handicap in this heat namely Mr Henderson’s DIVIN BERE off 139. After looking useful across The Channel this one made his debut for the forum’s favourite trainer at Huntingdon, in January, and gave 4 lbs and a neck beating to Master Blueyes with the pair a whopping 26 lengths clear of the third. The runner-up incidentally has definitely upheld the form – winning a Grade 2 next time. That elevated Master Blueyes rating to 150 and even if you are poor at maths can see how well in Divin Bere looks here based on that effort. Purposefully kept off the track since Huntingdon, so as to preserve that most attractive looking perch, Divin Bere should outrun his mark as he looks potentially much better than a 139 rated horse. BOB Two that stand out a mile to me are DOLOS AND DREAMCATCHING. Both run for that rogue of the higest order, Paul Tubs Nicholls and I fancy his chances of replicating last years forecast. BOILY Again a tricky race where Nicholls has done well over the years and I haven't. Last time I backed a winner in this was Son of flicks and not at fancy prices but I was one of the many sheep that joined in once the gamble was apparent. This year old have no real strong fancies but I will have to side with Project Bluebook, yes it's another for Mcmanus. I Really think he'll have an outstanding festival and this horses performance 2 runs back really struck me as a horse going places. WOOLY Saw a preview with Noel Fehily and watching it you wouldn’t think that DIVINE BEAR was going to get beat at all! Like the confidence and is a big bet in my book NASS Flying Tiger - things didn't go to plan at Kempton when he was settled too far off the pace and he struggled to land a blow as a result. The form of his previous run looks fair enough with Zalvados being thought good enough to have an entry here too. CORAL CUP BOILY Tombstone will be a lot of people's idea of a good thing as he beat Jeszki in his last race and is what some people will call a graded horse in a handicap but he will need the rain to arrive for him to be able to operate at the highest level. So if the rain doesn't who might capitalise? No Comment, no honestly No Comment will be the horse I feel might benefit. Minella Awards is the horse he beat last time out and that horse franked the form at Sandown on Saturday. Has plenty of experience now for the Hobbs yard and is finally putting together a string of wins. Frantic pace this handicap always has will suit as he's a fantastic traveller. NASS Old Guard - things haven't gone to plan, but that puts him on a fascinating handicap mark and we all know that Nicholls can get one spot on for the festival. TALAL Will be backing two: Peregrine Run, who is well weighted, C/D winner and will love the ground and goes well when fresh. Mister Miyagi who the Skeltons are pretty bullish about. Only 1 and half lengths off Tombstone in the supreme but is 4 times the price.
DAY THREE JLT: NASS Yorkhill is a very short price and given that his jumping has been a little bit interesting, i'd be prepared to take him on and mutter a few choice words if he hacks up. So who instead? I would normally go for Politilogue, he is a grey, he is trained by Nicholls and all that, but he looks weak in the finish to me and needs to strengthen up a bit if he is to be truly top class. I don't like Top Notch who is also short in the market, I just can't have him at all, and that leaves Disko towards the front of the betting. However I think this is an open race and something at big prices could spoil the party, and I will be looking at what runs in the Gigginstown colours further out in the betting here. RON If Yorkhill goes for this instead of facing the impossible against Altior he should win this easily. But it’s yet another race of will they, won’t they run. If Top Notch goes for this he will be battling all the way to the line and Yorkhill will have to be every bit as good over fences as he is over hurdles to beat him off. Can’t see anything else in the race to even consider. BOB/WOOLY YORKHILL TALAL Yorkhill is the most talented horse in the race, and if his jumping holds up, he will win. But 6/4 is too skinny for me, and I like Disko at 6’s, who if being given the run of the race up front, could have them at it behind. Shame he’ll have Cooper on board though. BOILY Yorkhill, can't jump and is keen yet ppl are willing to take 7/4 ? I agree that he's the best horse In the race but he's a thinker and I would much rather back Top Notch as he's 7/2 and he jumps for fun and if there are any chinks in Yorkhills armour he will expose them. WARDY Not convinced with Yorkhills jumping, if you backed him you will be watching this through your fingers. Politologue is who I want to side with. His jumping has been impeccable since switched to chasing. The run behind Waiting Patiently on ground softer than ideal looks solid, Itsafreebee is a good benchmark and they beat him 20+ lengths. The ground should be absolutely spot on and seems to be improving with every run. RYANAIR WARDY I would absolutely love for Sizing John to run here, I think he would be miles ahead of these. Empire of Dirt is heading to Gold Cup and the ground may go against Un De Sceaux. Given that, Sub Lieutenant ran 2nd to Sizing John and that form looks excellent. Almost every horse is in the race is either a 2miler stepping up or not good enough for the Gold Cup. He has quality grade 1 form in the book and can't see past him. WOOLY All over UDS for this race, although would have loved him run in the champion hurdle but with the defections of particular horse and the question marks Empire of Dirt running in the gold cup will just strengthen UDS stronghold on this race. For horse who has only beaten over fences but Sprinter Sacre on ground that doesnt suit him, he is the most underpriced horse of the week; He seems to have settled better and will actually be more in his comfort zone then jumping over 2m which can be hard and getting the trip will be no problem on good or his favoured soft ground. He is unbeaten in two starts this year and one of them was after 40 hours in the back of a trailer and to come out and run like his did at Cheltenham was quite special. He doesn’t have to lead now and he can bide his time which shows how the horse has matured and is my NAP of the week NASS Fascinating race, and very similar to the JLT in many regards, its full of horses who could easily win a race of this nature, but most have questions to answer too. Take Un Des Sceaux who has been beaten at the festival and has still to prove that this trip with a proper pace is what he wants. God's Own is solid, and very good, but is he good enough to win a Ryanair and will he even run? Will Fox Norton swerve Douvan, and will he stay in this race? Will Uxizandre bounce? Empire Of Dirt at ten years of age? Will he find this too fast? Then you have Josses Hill!! At the end of all the questions, I just get the feeling that Un Des Sceaux is going to do enough for the victory. TC Just cannot have Un De Sceaux. Equally, can’t be certain what else might win it. Just suspect Gigginstown have a good angle on the race this year. Empire Of Dirt/Sub Lieutenant for me. WORLD HURDLE BOB I have Cole Harden at 33/1 and Jezki at 16/1 both each way. No reason to bother messing about with anything else at cramped odds. NASS Unowhatimeanharry? Well he is a winning machine, but what has he been beating? Well, he has to be the call from the British runners, although I do like Ballyoptic and I still think he has a massive run in him. This race for me really is a case of the Irish challenge, and I do like Nicholls Canyon who has been taking on the best for a long time over shorter and I think he can step up in distance and be competitive. Similarly the case can be made for Shaneshill, and if any of the Irish mares ran here, they would be in with a shout. I will say it, but I think Unowhatimeanharry is a horse to take on, and I will be doing so with runners from the Mullins yard. How times change!! WOOLY How UKNOWHATIMEANHARRY is odds against is a bit of an insult to connections, I cannot see him getting beat. He is running against a bunch of horses he keeps beating this season and nothing suggests to why they will overturn the form.The Irish horses don’t seem good enough but Shaneshill I fully expect to give him the most to do as the step up to 3m seems to be what he has really needed and his form over in Ireland seems the strongest aside from the favourites. WARDY Harry is another who looks bombproof here, so again I am looking at the without market. Lil Rockerfeller has been given a well earned break after running mighty races against Yanworth and the favourite Uknowwhatimeanharry and then a mediocre run in the Relkeel when running with a penalty. He is a horse who can often be first off the bridle but the move to 3 miles was badly needed and now that they know he will stay the trip he can be ridden with a bit more aggression. BARNEY One thing that has really surprised me this term has been the rise and rise of UNOWHATIMEANHARRY and I think the form of his 3 wins this season is more than enough to see him win this heat. Has been something of a revelation and he continues to go from strength to strength with each win silencing more and more doubters. There is certainly no Thistlecrack entered this year and to be perfectly frank his rivals look a modest bunch in terms of Championship class. With distance, track and going seemingly holding no fears for Uknowhatimeanharry I can see few problems for the horse who should be capable of achieving a second Festival win here. To summise most others: – lots of love for Harry. If not a Harry fan then take your pick of the others who all have a fair chance of nicking it if the fav fails to fire.
DAY THREE OTHER RACES: BROWN PLATE TALAL Brown advisory plate: Sizing Coldelco has been in my tracker since is run on NYD. Has a lovely weight, and the subsequent comments from the Tizzards about this being their best chance has only strengthened my thinking. 11’s a fair price too. PERTEMPS NASS Duke Street and Solstice Star are the two in my notebook for this KIM MUIR BARNEY Mr Henderson’s HADRIAN’S APPROACH has got some very good form in the book which includes a win in the Bet365 Gold Cup, a runner-up place in the Grade 1 Feltham, a 3rd in an RSA and a 4th in a Hennessy. That final named effort was last time out and Hadrian’s Approach runs off just a pound higher, in this heat, than at Newbury (will be off 140 at Cheltenham). The old boy achieved a peak perching of 153, just over 2 years ago, and is most defiantly on a mark now that connections can exploit to the full. Although he’s now a 10YO Hadrian’s Approach still looks capable of winning a decent prize and his solid profile, together with his more than reasonable mark, makes him a live contender for this event. TC Squoteaur (not sure what handicap chase he is in, but he’s been plotted up off a mark of 133. He went off 9/4 fav at the festival last year for a handicap hurdle off 141. Looks really well perched. BOILY No Cause of Causes this year and no doubt JJ Codd being booked for the Elliott runner will mean that it goes off short but I quite like the Mullins runner Sabremount. He ran it this last year off of 149 and finished a respectable 6th but this time round he's been campaigned better and is now 3lbs lower. TALAL Doctor Harper went off 9-2 favourite for this race last year. So it beggars belief you can get close to 4 times the price for him this time round, with a similar weight and no Cause of Causes around. Will need to jump better, but judged on his run two starts ago, still retains some ability and 16’s is worth a go.
DAY 4 TRIUMPH TOP CLASS No idea if they are definite runners but CHARLI PARCS & MERIE DEVIE are both way better than last runs indicate and I am convinced if we get good/good to soft they will run exceptionally well. BARNEY When it comes to the current crop of juvenile hurdlers for me DEFI DU SEUIIL stands out by some way. Is 5/5 since joining dear old Pip Hobbs and I really can’t see a blemish appearing on that record after this race. The old boy has 3 wins at the course and at Chepstow, in December, also obliged at the ‘top table’ as he took the Grade 1 Finale Hurdle easily by 13 lengths. Confidence in him is further enhanced by my belief that the rest of the 4YO brigade don’t look the greatest ever. Defi Du Seuil looks a horse of immense promise and you do have to think that long term he could be capable of almost anything over either hurdles or the big ‘uns. RON I’ve had my eye on Charli Parcs for some time and I’m not going to desert him now. The unbeaten Defi Du Seuil is an obvious danger. My bet would be Charli Parcs with a saver on DDS to cover the stake. Coeur de Lion finished 3rd to DDS after attempting to jump a path and not fluent at the last. Wouldn’t have to improve much to figure so looks like the ew bet NASS All about Defi Du Seuil for me, one of my most confident selections for the week. He has beaten everything that has put it up to him, and the way he cruises into his races is really taking. I think his form with Evening Hush is the key bit, and that filly is my EW selection to run into the places. BOB Charli Parcs will strip fitter for the last day where he was coming back on the bridle before the fall. To me, absolutely screaming out for Championship pace race. I’m fairly sure we have the winner in that horse. DDS is decent but I thought the ground could be a factor by Friday. He’s done his winning on soft or good to soft and we know the ground this week will be described as good but will be closer to firm. Massive question mark for me about a horse at 2/1 in the Triumph. Wooly DEFI DU SEUIL is rock solid. Has shown his best form over soft ground but the stable have come out and said he can go on any ground. He has already recorded three wins over hurdles at Cheltenham which proves his liking for the track which could prove vital. A showing that not many of the field have in their armour. Can forgive his Chepstow run where his jumping was an issue but had a run close before that; Mega fortune - have been a big fan of him all season was hoping they would leave the cheekpieces off until the festival as they seemed to do the difference. He bowled out in front with them on lto and won very well, he is the best of the irish vs Defi De Seuil who is the best of the English but I fancy England to prevail in this. ALBERT BARTLETT TC Going to head left field here- ANY DRAMA at a huge price for Harry Fry. Won as he liked last twice- won an Irish bumper last year by 22L. Looks a proper stayer. Interesting. Personally felt that the Gigginstown favourite should be in the Neptune! BOB Boring but Death Duty ticks the boxes. Battle heardened. Turn of foot if he needs it. Grinds when needed. I don’t buy into the Augusta Kate comments from LTO. You have to be wise to the game in this race and she isn’t. NASS I think this race is particularly tough, and whilst Death Duty has been doing it really well in Ireland, this could well be very different and he might find something with a bit too much pace. The Worlds End is fascinating for me, he won so well last time out and I think he could be a horse who progresses rapidly, he needs to improve but he can. RON Death Duty is the obvious selection but there are plenty in with a chance, notably Peregrine Run 4 straight wins last year (including a win over Wholestone) followed by a 3rd in a G2 pipe opener in January and Augusta Kate who had every chance when falling in the race won by the selection. Penhill and Tin Soldier also with place claims. This race is more open than the betting suggests and 5/2 the fav is pretty skinny. For interest I would take Peregrine Run ew at 25/1 B365 and a big ew bet on Augusta Kate at 8/1 Betfair TALAL Death Duty hasn’t put a foot wrong all season and looks really special. Expecting him to take this on towards a great chasing career. WARDY I actually backed West Approach for this last year at 66/1. He was still a bit babyish but a second season over hurdles has worked wonders. He is a very professional jumper and since switching to Open company has found that a strongly run 3 miles is what the horse needs. You are guaranteed that this will be strongly run and you would imagine the hold up tactics won't be exaggerated as much. At a bigger price I am keen on Penhill. He went off 2nd fav for the 2mile Royal Bond but apparently broke a blood vessel and came home 4th that day. He since came out and won a 3mile grade 2 with as much ease as you like and is completely unexposed coming into this.
GOLD CUP WARDY I am a huge fan of Bristol De Mai, he ran a very decent 2nd in the JLT last year and then has had a few mediocre races after that. He got back to his best in the Peter Marsh, which form looks rock solid. He wasn’t right next race up which can be forgiven. You want to see him make the running or at least be up with the pace, his jumping is his biggest asset and although he has never run the trip I am confident he would see it out well. BOILY Onto the big one, a race that has been ruined by injuries but if there ever was a chance for Cue Card to women a gold cup this is it. I LOVE this horse so I'd love to see it but as I Keep telling myself horses who return to this race after not winning it first time rarely do a 2nd or 3rd. My selection will be Native River, this horse has won a Hennessey and a National (welsh) In the same season, that's some feat and the only reason were getting a decent price is because he doesn't have the travelling style of Cue Card. Let's think back to when Denman fought Kauto first time to round, this will be the same with the 2 battling it out and my money's on the grinder to come out in top. WOOLY WF- First of all cant be having Native river for this race what so ever has won some decent handicaps in the hennessy and the welsh national, but in the national he escaped the penalty when running in this so was running off the same mark as his henessy run. His win at against Bristol De Mai and the nicholls horse doesn’t prove much- as his main rival in the market BDM was apparently not 100% after the race. He deserves the respect but is way too short and last 10/10 winners have all won a grade one chase . Cue Card , no 11 year old has run won the gold cup since 1924 if I’m not mistaken and there are still question marks over he will really stay the extended 3m2f- I have a feeling he would have won last year, but feel that was his year; Djakadam- second twice in this race but seems to be finding one too good or his training up to the race has been interrupted. Is apparnrly in sparkling form at home but for a gold cup winning horse, he has had too many excuses in his races whether it has been jockey error, the ground, or too close to his last run. I just feel these excuses horses will always have that excuse as to why they don’t win these big races. My pick is SIZING JOHN who reminds me a bit of the likes of Excelebration. Constantly following Frankel’s ass home but out of that and away from him, they really did fire. I fully expect this to happen here, has got his closest he ever got to Douvan the last twice at Cheltenham, In the supreme and the Arkle. Since his move to Jessie Harringtons and the step up in trip he has been a different, won on a step up 2 ½ miles then won the Irish gold cup over 3m a race which suited him down to a tee they went no gallop and he ran on in the end. Although I don’t expect this race to be run like that, everything in his breeding suggests he will stay the trip and connections have been very bullish about him and if he does stay he will be there right at the end. NASS This race is intriguing for me, we have the proven form of Cue Card against the potential of Native River, but then again we also have Djakadam who has been the bridesmaid in this race before. I don't like taking old horses to win this race, and I think Cue Card is vulnerable if it turns into a war of attrition, whilst I don't think Native River is as good as some think he is. He didn't impress me last time out, and I think we could be in for a massive shock here. The two against the field (and I can't believe I am saying this) are Minella Rocco and Saphir Du Rheau. These aren't the most reliable but they are capable and in a race where many look to have chances, i'd rather be with horses at prices against those who are shorter but have similar questions to answer. Minella Rocco is a horse who has threatened to be top class, and his run at Aintree when he fell behind the late Many Clouds was very eyecatching, and whilst he hasn't gone on from that, much of the issue has been the dire form of the Jonjo O'Neill yard. The yard are in better form now, and spring ground could well help Minella Rocco to run a career best, which is certainly possible for this horse. Let's not forget that he beat a certain Native River at the festival last season in the NH Chase! Saphir Du Rheau is a more left field selection, but he has always been highly regarded and I think we have been seeing snippets of that finally coming to fruition over fences. He was classy over hurdles (2nd in a World Hurdle) and he has always looked a chaser in the making if he could cut out a few errors. Again, I think the spring ground will suit him here, and he is at the perfect stage of his career to produce a chasing best at the festival. 66/1 is far too big. RON Provided the ground isn’t soft or softer, I can’t see past Djakadam. He’s been run out of 2 Gold Cups (won by Coneygree and Don Cossack). There is nothing of their caliber this year and he is still only an 8yo, approaching his peak. He had an interrupted preparation last year and he was only a 6yo the year before; this year everything (reportedly) has gone right. The only danger could have been the ever-popular Cue Card who fell when going ominously well last year (how nice it would be to see him win); but he is now an 11yo and can’t be improving now. Therefore, I firmly believe, given decent ground, this is Djakadam’s Gold Cup to lose. If it turns up soft, then Native River may pull it off. TALAL GC: I really fancy Djakadam who I think has the best form, is fresh, and this is finally going to be his year. Wouldn’t mind at all if Cue Card wins, a wonderful horse and it would bring the house down. Age is against him though unfortunately. TC Hope it is Cue Card. IF he stays Sizing John is a big threat- a fantastic jumper. Think he might have won the Ryanair- this trip is unknown though. BOB Load of old ****e this year. I’m not arsed.
DAY 4 OTHER RACES: COUNTY BARNEY A fiendishly trappy contest but it may well pay to take a chance with Mr Henderson’s HARGAM. Has been placed at the meeting before (’15 Triumph), is a course winner and last term went off at just 16/1 to win the ‘Champion Hurdle’. The old boy won a Listed affair at Kempton, back in October, but since then the wheels have, to put it mildly, come off re his career as he’s finished 12th, 14th and then 14th again in his last 3 events. What this trio of runs has done though is see his perch reduce from 153 to 140 (that’s a 13 lbs fall for those poor at maths). On his best form Hargam is now incredibly well handicapped and if he can return to previous highs is amazingly well in – and who better to ensure this return than the man with a brilliant brain and those most ‘magic’ of ‘magic hands’. If I was being cynical I’d also say perhaps he’s been allowed 3 ‘easy’ races to necessitate this fall in the rankings but I won’t as its Mr Henderson we are talking about here, people, the man with the straightest bat in the sport. Is a big price but I think Hargam more than capable of rewarding each-way support. TALAL Two I like are North Hill Harvey who has a similar profile to last year’s winner, is well weighted and is C/D winner. I will also be backing Ivanovich Gorbatov at 14’s- I refuse to believe he is as bad as his runs since this day last year make him out, off a fair weight, and hopefully a return to the track is the spark he needs. NASS Hargam - headgear on, faster ground, JP plot. WOOLY Another one of my big fancies NORTH HILL HARVERY, has had a very similar prep to superb story and altho trainer and jockey haven’t come out this year and said he won’t be beaten, I know they have been quietly confident about him; Won the Greatwood beating a good handful of this field and has been let of quite lightly imo, carrying a very decent weight and with his course form – will be giving you a run for your money going over the last! BOILY Master at bringing them back is Mr Henderson and of he manages to get this one back in the winners enclosure it'll be up there with some of his greatest triumphs. Peace and Co has his own ideas and he pulls harder than Callum Best but boy is he talented. They have said that he now settles better at home and seems to have fallen back in love with the game and if this is true he could win this at a hack canter. FOXHUNTERS BARNEY My pick here would be for something that I’ve got in abundance. Yes, that’s right, regular readers, WONDERFUL CHARM. This 9YO is not your average ‘tally-ho’ merchant in that he’s only run in a pair of Hunter Chases (his last 2 races) and before that was a very good horse over both hurdles and fences (a Grade 2 winner over hurdles and a dual Grade 2 winner over the big ‘uns with a peak rating of 159). Has adapted well to running in Hunter Chases with both of his successes being achieved with only minimum effort (especially the first when he merely toyed with the opposition). I really would suspect he will have far too much class for the opposition in this event and really can’t see past Wonderful Charm re the likeliest winner. MARTIN PIPE WARDY If he gets into the Martin Pipe a horse who I am keen to back is the Nicky Henderson horse Rather Be. He was 9th in the bumper last year and has since notched up 2 wins and a head second, enough to get himself a handicap mark. Young unexposed horses tend to win this and I think aslong as he gets in he has a huge chance. GRAND ANNUAL WARDY In the grand annual, typically JP holds a strong hand. He has multiple entries but the 2 standing out to me are Le Prezien and Zamdy Man. Both have strong formlines in novice chases this year and could be absolutely thrown in off their respective marks. BOILY Nicholls getting Dodging Bullets into a handicap is genuis. Better ground, wind op will me he will have his last day in the sun. WOOLY Although being regressive the last year or two, the mark he is currently on gives him a massive chance of recapturing abit of that old form he won the Champion chase off a mark of 171 – and now on a mark of 154 Carrying 10-11 and with his course form he is very interesting and wouldn’t be the first time Nicholls has pulled a rabbit out of his sleeve to win a big handicap at the festival; Dodging Bullets NASS How far has Dodging Bullet fallen in the handicap!! I think we may have a Paul Nicholls domination here as I also like Le Prezien if he goes here. TALAL Grand Annual: Will be backing Dodging Bullets, who I hope at least retains some ability. Nicholls and STD won this race last year, and I’m hoping for a similar result. BARNEY Grand Annual – With form figures of -94565 DANDRIDGE hardly jumps off the page but this one has been trained with this race in mind ever since a pair of near misses at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals last term. His runner-up berths on those occasions off 137 and 142 read very well whilst of his 5 races since 2 were over hurdles and the 3 over the big ‘uns how shall I say this diplomatically…ummmm..were mere ‘prep’ races. You can guarantee that Dandridge will be asked for everything in the last race of the meet and off a perch of 143 should go very close to atoning for his narrow defeat in the contest last term - a result that could have been very different, incidentally, had he not made a very bad, momentum rocking, blunder at the first fence. BOB I can get 40’s about last years winner who goes with a 3lb lighter weight and 16’s about last years third who runs with a 1 lb higher weight. Solar Impulse and Rock the World. They seem good enough to me to be competitive.
So there you have it. A lot of forthright opinions. The MC has used broad powers of editorial to chop away at some of the essays that were sent through but i think we get the gist. Best of luck chaps with whatever you back at the Festival. So long as we come out with our sanity in tact then we've done okay.
Fantastic job as always Bob hopefully the boys have sorted a few winners out of that. I think last years had a good win rate?
Tremendous effort all round, especially Bob for editing (I know how much work that takes). Sorry once again Bob for the late withdrawal.
Great job Bob!! I just want to implore you all once again that at 14/1 GOD'S OWN should not be ignored in the QMCC!! That is all!!
