I've been musing lately around staking plans and betting strategies for the upcoming Cheltenham festival and have stumbled across something quite interesting. I started by looking for the absolute bankers of the meeting - those horses that I just could not see getting beaten. Although last year threw up 5 which duly obliged (Douvan, Vroum Vroum Mag, Limini, Vautour and Thistlecrack) I think this year we are looking at just 3 horses - Altior in the Arkle, Douvan in the Champion Chase and Unowhatimeanharry in the Stayers Hurdle. My (admittedly tight) bookies, Racebets, currently has these priced up at 1/4, 1/4 and 5/4 respectively. I started out wondering what the treble pays at those odds - it is a shade over 5/2. Then I got to wondering about using this treble in combination with other bets as a price boost - so as an example if I wanted to back Djakadam at 4/1 for the Gold Cup, throwing in him a 4-horse accumulator with the above-mentioned 3 would give me something around 11.5/1 on Djakadam (assuming the other 3 all won). I then thought it would be a shame if the other 3 won and Djakadam lost, as I would have nothing to show for picking 3 winners. So I looked at the returns of a straight win bet on Djakadam versus playing him in a win yankee with the other 3: Straight win bet 11 points Djakadam @ 4/1 - stake 11 points, win gives +44 points, lose gives -4 points 1 point win yankee on Djakadam, Altior, Douvan, Unowhatimeanharry - stake 11 points. If all 4 win this bet returns a profit of +76.97 points. If Djakadam loses and the other 3 win I effectively get my money back (returns 10.7 points, so loss of only 0.3 points). Of course the attractiveness of the yankee diminishes rapidly if any of the 3 bankers get beaten, but shopping around should yield better odds on the bankers and the SPs could be even tastier. I'd appreciate any thoughts on the 3 bankers and whether this type of yankee might be a good chance to maximise profits whilst reducing risk.
It's funny that you should put this up Oddy as I was just talking to a pal of mine who suggested something similar, but... I did do these types of bets, mainly in a treble really, when I've put some of the recent festival bankers in with a 5/2 fav say but I got carried away with it 2 years ago when I had all sorts of combo's going on only to be let down by Annie Power at the last... Had she managed to get up it would have triggered about a dozen trebles & four-timers for the rest of the festival. But, as we all know, she fell didn't she and saved the crookies well over the 40-50 million pound mark if I can remember. I havn't really done them since, but then again I'm not sure that we have a lot of those 'bankers' knocking around anymore do we...?? Though injury and deaths have put paid to a few this year... It's a good plan if the certs come in coupled up with a slightly longer odds runner, and I'm sure your not the first to think of this plan. But it's not for me at the moment but it's not to say I wont do them again in the future... Good luck if you do though Oddy...
Oooh don't remind me about Annie mate ...... I'd got a tenner yankee with Douvan, UDS, Faugheen and Annie, would have paid 1500 quid if she'd stood up
Is Unowhatimeanharry a cert? Given that you have possibility of Cole Harden, VVM, Camping Ground, Clondaw Warrior and horses who could revert like More Of That. I think the staying Hurdle division has been very weak in the UK and races have fallen very well for the favourite. It may be that the Irish division may throw up something to beat him. I wonder if he will go for a big walk in the market beforehand so that those betting on the day with BPG are getting better than those putting early accas on.
Nailed on for me Nass. Cole Harden could give him most to think about with the headgear on spring ground (IF we get it) but VVM looks bound for the mares race, Camping Ground I think I read is going to Aintree as connections feel 2m4f is his trip and I don't rate the Irish challenge this time around.
Shaneshill to finally shed his bridesmaids tag for me. Douvan and Altior the bankers in an otherwise open year I think. Even On the Fringe has a few younger challengers this year.
My banker accumulator will be on Douvan/Altior/On the Fringe and Let's Dance in the mares novice hurdle.Harry will be tough to beat in the stayers but it might be wise to look for some Ew value.Might Bite lay of the festival, gone blue again on Oddschecker into 7/2,madness! Will also be taking on the two Tizzard beats in Gold Cup.I just think this is the year that Willie lands the big one with Djackadam.I know the yard are very happy with his prep,he is the right age this year, isn't facing the same quality horse like the last two years and will hopefully get his favoured soft ground.
As I do not bet odds-on, I will just be watching Altior and any other odds on shots win; and if I think an odds on shot is going to win, I leave the race alone as I have never been in the “each-way bet for an interest” camp – betting on something to finish placed is an odds-on bet unless the win odds are very generous, because your win stake is lost. So I would look at this from a purely mathematical point of view: if you do a Yankee, the doubles are just a waste of money as most of them pay next to nothing; therefore, I would just do the trebles and an accumulator. Or even simpler still, just do a treble on the three ‘bankers’ to cover the stake on the accumulator. As the treble pays just over 5/2, you could do £10 on that, which will return £35.16 and then have £25 on the accumulator with the Gold Cup horse. If the three bankers oblige, you have a bet to nothing on the Gold Cup. If one of the ‘bankers’ goes down, then you have done £35.
Douvan - QMCC Altior - Arkle VVM - Mares Hurdle Yorkhill - JLT Lets Dance - Mares Novice Hurdle Death Duty - AB UKnowWhatIMeanHarry - Stayers Barring falls, i can't see these losing. There's often Willie Mullins Hotpots in the AB that are too short but, as mentioned in a few places this week, Death Duty is experienced whereas Willie's usually aren't. DD has run 9 times. Absolute battler. I can't see it losing.
I agree with 4: Altior - Arkle VVM - Mares Hurdle Yorkhill - JLT UKnowWhatIMeanHarry - Stayers Haven't looked at the other 2 so can't comment on those. My "decent priced " banker would be Neon Wolf wherever he runs . If he misses Cheltenham double up at Aintree
Neon Wolf is getting a lot of chatter. I've not seen enough of him to form an opinion yet but i like connections and hope they do have a proper tool on their hands.
I have him down as a soft ground horse. Beat Elgin in receipt of 3lbs on soft, if the mud is flying at the festival he could go well.
I saw his race at Haydock and, although times can be pretty irrelevant in these races, it was the way he won that impressed me. A relatively fast time in the ground and he strolled it. TNO, 1.6 secs slower, was far from strolling; so I had that down as a very good run for such a novice
Thought Neon Wolf looked really classy but he's too short for me on faster ground he's never encountered. It really does feel an open festival bar the Arkle and Champion Chase. But who knows. Looking forward to the preview.
