He's a fast yak though Stickler! I'll be visiting my Methodist relatives on 26th, 27th so won't be able to watch the racing! I will be placing bets tomorrow and recording while I'm away so won't be visiting these pages until after I've watched the recordings. (I'll actually be travelling back Tuesday afternoon, so technically I could pull into a service station, pop up the satelllite dish and watch. But that smacks of desperation somehow!) So have/hope you had (strike out where appropriate) a great Christmas, and have a drink on me (not strictly possible, but still ....)
Can't wait to see The Nipper ping a few hurdles Monday also. After a fantastic start to her bumper career she showed some quirks when winning her Sandown bumper in almost unbelievable fashion before then running out at Punchestown when going well. Not one I will be financially involved with but a race I look forward to seeing the progression of these youngsters.
Evening all and a merry Christmas and a prosperous new year. Won't be going to kempton as I think the fare on offer is pretty poor, I'm off to Huntingdon where it's also pretty poor but at least you can get a drink and the pies are pukka. I feel messers pauling and twisters will have a good day. Cheers.
is it significant that cue card has won once at kemp ton , but tea for two has three wins from three visits ? horses for courses an all that , on ratings it shouldn't happen , but we all know that stranger things have happened , especially in small fields -- pace is guaranteed you may say , but without the freak that is coneygree , I don't expect it to be formula one ...... so I shall have a small invest in the williams horse to defend his unbeaten kempton record
I will try and restrict my wagering to the graded races so here goes: 1:15 Leopardstown - Knight Frank Juvenile Hurdle (Grade 2). There are a couple of reasons for thinking Bapaume can turn around the Fairyhouse form with Landofhopeandglory. Firstly, the ground on St Stephen's Day will be much more testing than at Fairyhouse and I think this will suit Bapaume (dotted up by 7 lengths on his 2nd run in France on very soft) more than Landofhopeandglory, whose best form is all on a sound surface. Secondly, that was Bapaume's first run for Willie Mullins and he gave the impression he will come on for the run. It is tight between the 2 at the top of the market with Landofhopeandglory just edging favouritism at 7/4 ahead of Bapaume at 2/1. 1:50 Wetherby - Rowland Meryck Handicap Chase (Grade 3). As always, this is a very competitive affair but I think it will play out between the top 2 in the market, Blaklion and Yala Enki, with slight preference for the latter. Blaklion is a very smart horse but hard races in the Charlie Hall and Hennessy may well have left their mark and, even with Jamie Bargarry claiming 3lbs, it is a big ask for hm here off top weight. Yala Enki, on the other hand, hardly broke sweat in landing the Tommy Whittle on British chase debut off top weight. He is up 10lbs for that victory (effectively 12lbs as Charlie Deutsch has lost 2lbs of his claim) but such was his dominance at Haydock that he must go very close here. 2.00 Limerick - Shannon Airport Novice Chase (Grade 2). This looks to be a case of "If Bellshill jumps, he wins". 2:05 Kempton - Kauto Star Novices Chase (Grade 1). Better known as the Feltham, this looks an above-average renewal with 7 of the 10 runners rated above 140 and the 4YO Frodon (who gets 7lbs weight-for-age) rated 153 after his victory in the Caspian Gold Cup. Only 1 other 4YO has won this in the last 40 years (Mr. Henderson's Long Run) but Frodon comes here with a favourites chance on official ratings. My concern would be that this is already the 6th race of the season for him. Anibale Fly brings top Irish novice form to the race, finishing 2 lengths second to Coney Island in the Drinmore with some decent types behind including Alpha Des Obeaux and Diamond King. Two recent Doncaster winners, Might Bite and Present Man (who will enjoy going right handed having jumped right throughout) should also be involved at the business end. All things considered, I think Frodon can take this for Paul Nicholls, who reports him to be in the form of his life. 2:20 Leopardstown - Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade 1). I strongly fancy Identity Thief to get the better of Min here. Henry De Bromhead's Fighting Fifth Hurdle winner has jumped impeccably on 2 starts over fences and comfortably beat stablemates Ordinary World and Attribution in the fog at Punchestown last time. Attribution has since won the Grade 3 Klairon Davis Novice Chase from Briar Hill, giving the form a solid look. Min could do no more than win easily at Navan on chase debut but the bare form looks nothing special and the yard seem to be taking a little longer than usual to hit top gear. 2:40 Kempton - Christmas Hurdle (Grade 1). The New One put up a very nice performance last time out to give My Tent Or Yours 8lbs and a beating at Cheltenam. His jumping has noticeably improved and he seemed to thrive under forceful riding tactics. If STD goes off in front and uses his stamina he will be very difficult to pass. I expect any thoughts of Yanworth going to the Champion Hurdle to be finally expelled here and fully expect The New One to triumph. 3:15 Kemtpon - King George VI Steeple Chase (Grade 1). A fascinating clash between stablemates Cue Card and Thistlecrack. My head says Cue Card, the reigning champ and hugely impressive winner of the Betfair Chase at Haydock, whereas my heart is firmly with Thistlecrack. I can't split them any more than the bookies seem to be able to so the logical play is the reverse forecast, I simply don't see the others getting anywhere near.
Mega Fortune 7/2 - Leopardstown 1:15 ran below form lto and is capable of reversing the Fairyhouse running between the front 3 that day. Anibale Fly 3/1 - Kempton Park 2:05 often travels well before being caught for toe, step up to 3 miles is a good move and he could win this pretty well if putting it all in. Just Get Cracking 20/1 - Leopardstown 2:55 Given a breather since March and held form well over the last campaign. He's consistent and if he can avoid jumping errors then he can run well off his featherweight for James Dullea. Enjoy the Turkey curry
Falcons Crest 12.20 Down Royal 7/2 A very useful hurdler who if fit should take some beating. Paper Lantern 12.50 Down Royal 8/1 His form figures in beginners chases don't necessarily stand out but they were in hot races and an opening mark of 87 looks quite appealing. Riviera Sun 2.55 Leopardstown 5/1 Would have won at Cork but for making a balls of the last. He looks progressive and looks to be the owners first string. Eiri na Casca 3.05 Limerick 10/1 His last run in fifth behind Rogue Trader sets a good standard in this weaker race.
First and foremost, a very merry Christmas to you all. The King George tomorrow is possibly the most fascinating race I've seen for some time. I've been following/watching/betting on horse racing for 45 years now and have had the pleasure of seeing some intriguing racing. I think this race takes the biscuit!!! Not only do we have one of the best chasers of our era in Cue Card, we have the big (possibly) improver in Thistlecrack.. Will they take each other on? Will the "stat" merchants be proved right and the Thistle "can't win"? But...I see two other possible dangers. Could Jossey improve again? Could the front two in the market take each other on and Tea pick them off? Although it appears to be a 2 horse race on paper. I think not. Oh, by the way..... Think Artful Artist will soon come of age. Good luck Gents and Ladies.
This is why horse racing is so easy to make money on. Tomorrows King George is a prime example, the backers are allowing blind hero worship to get in the way of common sense. Cue Card is an admirable horse, but to make him favourite over a horse who has looked a flying machine so far is hilarious. The racing media are brainwashing everyone into believing Cue Card is some sort of Champion. Yet he's never won a championship race?? Thistlecrack actually has to be fair, even if it was over hurdles. When the market was first formed I was expecting to see a massive plunge for Thistlecrack, but it doesn't seem to have materialised. I honestly don't get it, but I'm more than happy to fill my boots on Thistlecrack tomorrow, who in my opinion is streets ahead of Cue Card in terms of ability. Thistlecrack will blow Cue Card away tomorrow, and he won't have been the first horse to have beaten this so called 'superstar' with ease.
Looking for a bit of e/w thieving tomorrow lads so il be having a pop at the following: 12:15 Leopardstown Jelan e/w Half-sister to Jezki and will eventually get further than 2m. However, looks the sort to progress now switching to hurdles from bumpers and this is not the strongest Leopardstown maiden on paper. Disappointing if not in the first three but one to progress over time and distance. 1:15 Leopardstown Prospectus 12/1 (NAP) Won in a manner that looked abover average in the juvenile department and in my view completely overlooked by the nonsensical hype of these Ballydoyle blue bloods. May post one or two more in the morning
Happy Christmas one and all. In the Leopardstown opener, I think Outspoken 9/4 will take a lot of beating if fit. 1.50 Leopardstown Dawerann 13/2 looks to have scope to go in again under with a 6lb rise fine. Fruits of Glory travelled very well against Dawerann the last day and might improve for the drop back in trip and could be worth a saver. 12.40 Wetherby Dick Darsie 10/1 looks a typical Sue Smith winner at a track she loves winning at. 3.45 Kempton Doesyourdogbite 8/1 my best bet of the day. I was seriously, seriously impressed with how he stretched quickened in the last 50 yards when given a squeeze having travelled into the race like a dream. I'd be stunned if he's not better than an opening mark of 132 and if he's not miles better on heavy (seems fine on decent ground) then I think he'll take a heap of beating in a race won by 4 year olds the last 3 renewals.
All is good lads. Working world has taken its toll on my ability to study the form as much as I'd like and certainly to post. I can assure all that my eye is just as good as ever though!
The Gold Cup is the premier staying chase. The KG is not a lot more than a trial. Having said that Cue Card got lucky last year, with Don Cossack falling, a horse who has proven his superior on 3 other occasions.
