Where do we stand?

There has been a lot of discussion about where we are as a club and what we can expect. So i thought i'd have a look at where we are currently in competitions and how we stand as a club off the field.

First let's look at the competitions:

We're out of the League Cup and FA Cup at early rounds and to lower league opposition. This will ease up our fixture list and may well benefit us in the league but it's not good enough. Under Wenger we have never been a team that loses to opposition from lower leagues or that go out very early. We always have at least a half decent cup run or get put out by a decent team. So i'm dissapointed in how we have done in the domestic cup competitions despite some good moments like the Reading game. I think the blame lies with the players as we put out good teams who didn't do well enough.

That being said, the same has happened to the other big teams, all bombing out of the league cup. Tottenham dumped out of the FA Cup by lower league opposition and Everton and Chelsea both drawing against lower league opposition being forced to go to a replay. So although had we gone through we would of had a good chance at silverware, the other big guns have also failed in this department.

Next up is the Champions League. We have qualified from our group once again and then lost to last years finalists Bayern 3-1 in our first leg. Bayern are a very good team and we knew it would be a big ask. And the third goal was a lucky one, if that had spun off past the post we would have a much better chance of going through. But as things stand we need to go to Munich and score 3 goals. Considering how organised they are as a team and there defensive record this season it is highly unlikely we will turn this fixture around.

I'll be happy if we go there and put in a good performance. As long as we have a respectable second leg i won't be too dissapointed if we go out. We got a difficult draw and even if we had topped our group we could have ended up facing Madrid or Milan. It's maybe worth noting that Milan beat Barca 2-0 and so Barca are in a similar position to us of needing to score 3 goals to go through. Next season i want to see us having a better run in the competition though (but we have been knocked out by some of the very best teams in the competition, not other clubs with similar or lower reputation).

And finally the Premier League. At the moment we are in 5th place with 22 GD (4th best in the league), with 11 games remaining. We're one point behind tottenham with better GD (they have a game in hand) and 2 points behind Chelsea in 3rd. Our next two fixtures are against Everton (5 points behind us) and Tottenham. Other than the Utd game these two are our most difficult and important fixtures left. Winning these two games puts us in a strong position to get into 3rd this season. Losing them could make 4th a very uncomfortable battle.

It's also worth noting that overall Tottenham and Chelsea both have a more difficult run in to the end of the season than we do. But we have had some 'interesting' results in games we should be winning so it's going to be a tough set of games. It's still very much open who will occupy 3rd/4th/5th and even City are not far enough ahead to guarantee they will hold 2nd (although its unlikely they will mess up enough to drop from the top 2). It's going to be very tight this year just like it was last year and it may well go down to the last game again.

We are not where we would like to be in the league but we are also not in nearly as bad a position as some are making out. We are still in with a very good chance of matching our 3rd place position from last year. I'll be content provided we finish in the top 4, but ideally i want to see us getting 3rd which i think is achievable and should be our aim. If we finish outside of the top 4 i will be very dissapointed, 5th or below is not good enough.


That's the competitions out of the way, now let's look at our off the field position:

To start with we have our new sponsorship deals. We are now going to be recieving much more money each year through sponsorship than we where previously. The new Emirates deal and kit change are generating huge amounts of income compared to most teams in the league. Only overshadowed by Utd and possibly City i believe? And City is a bullshit deal. (It's worth remembering that the amount we get is dependant on CL qualification).

Overall (emirates+nike/addidas) it's ~£55million a year, which is a huge increase on what would have been ~£20million a year (going off figures i've found by quickly googling it, mainly taken from the bcc website). So we are going to have an additional ~£30-35million a year. To me that looks like very good business.

We make very good money from Gate receipts as many like to point out how expensive it is to watch Arsenal these days, so the income there is as good as we can expect. We are making good use of our Stadium as far as income is concerned.

Up until now we have been held back by the stadium move financially, having to pay back large amounts of debt. We now look like finally entering a period where money is much more freely available and we can look to reep the rewards of our stadium move. It has held us back over the last 8 years whether some like to believe it or not, but in the end it is very much worth it. All top clubs have a top stadium.

Following these financial successes off the field we have had some very good signs from the club about how we will invest into the club. Although similar comments have been made before now it is being put forward in a very definate way. After the departure of some of our top players (RVP, Nasri etc) it is clear Wenger has been frustrated, it's clear the fans have been frustrated and the board have obviously taken note and are making it clear that we will be able to spend money now. I personally think recent comments show clearly that we haven't had money to spend to compete with other clubs but that now we actually do.

The shareholders have not been paid any dividends at all and kroenke takes a £25k a year salary. The owners of our club are not milking away any money at all, everthing is either invested or kept in the company. Any financial gain intended from our shareholders is over a long period of time through the growth of the business not through draining the club dry with large dividends.

Our recent signings (Cazorla, Podolski, Giroud, Monreal) and our recent targets (Villa, Capoue) suggest to me that we are bringing in a better quality of player than we have in recent seasons. With the increase in financial power we are starting to benefit from i think we can expect the type of player we sign to be top quality in the Summer and going forwards. With the rumoured £70million available i think we will see a World Class addition to the squad along with 2-3 very good players. I think it's unfair to critisize our last couple of windows too much due to the circumstances surrounding fabregas/nasri/clichy window and RVP being a ****. Fair enough if some people think our transfer dealings should have been dealt with better but i genuinely think the club didn't expect to lose the players we did.

I'll leave it until after the summer to judge whether Wenger and the club are still able to get the players we need to move forwards. And i think it's only fair given his loyalty and performance in his time with us that Wenger is the man given the opportunity to spend the money we have available. He has been financially constrained and still maintained top 4 and exciting sides for 16 years (yes we have had 2 seasosn now where we are not particularly competing). He could have left us for top teams and when he does leave us he will have loads of top job offers (i'd put money on Madrid, the France national team and most of the sugar daddy clubs offering him contracts).


Overall:

Overall i think it's clear that we have gone through a difficult period and are still in that difficult period. Last season and this in particular have not been good enough. But we are entering a time when we can finacially compete and look very healthy off the pitch. We look likely to make good investment in the squad in the Summer and are still in a good position to get 3rd spot like last season. I think the fans need to grit there teeth and bear it a little longer. With some patience and sticking behind the team and manager i believe we will come good again. All the factors are there for us to be a success and finally the money is there to back up the stature of our club.

The negativity around our club created by the media is not helping and so it's up to the fans to give the players the atmosphere they need to motivate them to push on to that next level. It's hard enough to compete in this league as it is, without the fans being against the team as well. We need to accept that this season 3rd/4th is our goal and the Summer is the time for things to improve and get us back competing at the very top.

 

yikes!

 

Mostly agreee but I still think the decision to sell RVP was a terrible mistake. Selling him didn't make sense for football reasons and financial reasons. We should have made him see out his contract. I don't think he would have sulked or dropped in form as he would have been looking for a move to a top club the next summer. Having him up front with Cazorla and Wilshere supporting him, along with a rejuvinated Walcott and Podolski on the wings would have all but guaranteed CL qualififcation and the money that comes with it. Who knows, maybe we would have won something and RVP may have been persuaded to sign a new contract? I hope we can qualify again and invest seriously in the summer but the summer and the first three months of next season really is last chance saloon for Wenger in my book. No more excuses.

 

When judging our season, the cup defeats to Bradford and Blackburn really do hurt the most. Watching the League Cup final yesterday was painful, because we had a route to a final that we should have taken. After THAT Reading game, I thought this might be the year that we ended our trophy drought, but we was let down again.