Ascot 2pm Justice Day 2/1 Very keen on this horse to win the opener tomorrow. Strong Newbury winner, sauntering miles clear with the Hannon horse, Steventon Star, who won with ease on Monday night at Windsor. The Hannon's have an obvious line through this horse because of Steventon Star so a lot of support for their runner would set the alarm bells ringing but if that doesn't materialise I'm very hopeful. An additional selection as the tracker has reminded me it's running. 7.35 Kempton String Theory (no price yet) Ran an excellent debut in a good Newmarket maiden a couple of weeks ago. Broke poorly but finished really eye catchingly and I think it will prove to be nigh on unbeatable tomorrow if it can break on terms.
Ascot 4.45. Rockalong will be a warm favourite after his win on the all-weather at Kempton. However, his current price of around 11/4 has little appeal for a Class 4 win. Of more interest is Richard Hughes' mount, Chapter and Verse, who is dropped 10lb from his all-weather rating of 90. His recent defeat by the useful Es Que Love reads well and, if he can transfer that and his fitness back onto the turf, he could go very close. However, it may pay to take a chance with Milton Bradley's Frog Hollow. He ran in Class 2 Turf last year off a mark of 90- his best effort being a 5 length fourth to the useful Gabrial. This season, he tried the all-weather but performed poorly. Last outing, however, he switched back to turf and ran a good race behind Nocturn over 6 furlongs at Windsor- a distance too short for him. He now reverts back to a mile and , off a mark of 83 (reduced to 78 with useful claimer, Matthew Lawson on board), he could have a big shout here. Frog Hollow- recommend decent each way bet. Best Price 25/1 (Paddy Power). Chapter and Verse- recommend saver at 12/1 (Paddy Power)
Great to see my favourite trainer Mike Murphy able to get Hughes and Moore on his two horses in the Ascot finale tomorrow. Hoping its a sign of things to come. With regards to the horses in question, I think Chapter and Verse is definitely on a mark he can be very competitive back on turf. Its actually Hurricane Lady who appeals to me more at the prices though (I think she'll drift so hoping to get 25s+ tomorrow). Has gone well fresh in the past and I think she'll appreciate a sound surface.
Cool Friend for me at Cheltenham had it at 50s in the fox hunters when it got mugged on the line by a 100/1 shot!
I think the Ascot card could throw up a few good betting opportunities tomorrow but with regard most I would like to see how the early exchanges go in the market. I am going to take a chance on one early however as it's price could be real value. Ascot 3.00 Fencing 4-1 To say this horse has disappointed is an understatement, after breaking his maiden in a listed race at 5-4 he ran in the Racing post trophy and was beaten 2 1/2 lengths into 3rd by Camalot. He was seen next in the 2000 Guineas in which he was beaten 6 lengths into 6th by Camalot, next up was the Dante in which he came 3rd. It all then went wrong as he was left out with the washing in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot and was given a four month break. When he came back he finished a respectable but uninspiring 4th in a group 2. My theory is that the guineas meeting last year was run on atrocious going that bottomed out the horse on his first run back, he was not able to recover between then and his next run and by the time of Royal Ascot he had no chance to show what he was. John Gosden rightly gave him a break and brought him back in October but in effect the guineas finished his season. That he has been kept in training shows that they have faith that he is what they thought, which is a guineas horse. His last 5 runs have taken in 3 group ones and 2 group twos, tomorrows race is a listed race and I expect him to win it well and be targeted to group races once again afterwards. My reservation is that he will not (quite rightly) be given a hard race and should it need fighting for he will not be asked for everything, but I still feel at 4-1 he could be a lot better than any of these. I know that John Gosden was once sure he was.
Hello lads. Stuccodor at 5/2 5.15 Tipperary is a knocking bet tomorrow evening to take this conditions event before climbing into group races. Typical Weld improving slow burner against static opposition. GL all.
5.30 Southwell Brass Monkey 4/1 Not one to go nuts with at all but Brass Monkey could be absolutely chucked in on his stable/handicap debut for Charlie Longsdon off a mark of 88 when looking at the strength of his bumper win. After having one run in a bumper for Paul Webber, Brass Monkey moved to the Sarah Humphrey yard where he ran out an impressive winner of a bumper on his debut for that yard at this course by 3.5L. The form of those in behind is strong in relation to future exploits over hurdles with the 2nd now rated 119 and 3rd rated 121 in this sphere. After failing to defy a penalty on his final start in a bumper, Brass Monkey was not great in 3 quick runs over hurdles in late 2012 but all three were on very testing ground that would not have suited - his former trainer stated she had to wait 6 months for the good ground before running him which he duly gets tomorrow. As a result of those disappointing runs in unsuitable ground, he has been assigned an opening mark of 88 and based on the calibre of the horses he beat when winning his bumper it certainly makes him look to have a very feasible opening mark now returned to a sound surface. In the interim period, he has been moved to the excellent Charlie Longsdon yard (same ownership) and he comes 124 absence which is no concern as he clearly goes well fresh. I think it is very interesting that Longsdon brings Brass Monkey to the scene of his only success to date for his handicap debut and I'm hoping its a sign that a big run is expected. The excellent Richard Johnson takes the ride and waits around for nearly 3 hours since his other engagement on the card and given how poor a race this is I definitely feel that connections are hopeful of a very big showing. Based on his bumper victory, a mark of 88 could prove very lenient given that his runs over hurdles to date have been in testing conditions and with good ground sure to suit him today it wouldn't surprise me if Brass Monkey proved much better than his opening mark.
2.00 Ascot Master Carpenter Really fancy this horse to go well today, overcame some greenness when winning at Leicester. That form has been franked since with the 3rd, 5th and 7th all winning next time up and the 2nd and 4th running into 2nd place.
4.10 Ascot SNOW KING 11/2 Rather surprised at the price to say the least. I think anyone can put a line through a run in the US on just your second start and the maiden win is red hot form, in front of Telescope, Zamoyski, Tawhid and numerous other useful types. Listed level ought to be a very winnable place to start and the drop to 6f ought so suit more, having shown plenty of pace at this track kn debut.
From the trainer's blog... "Brass Monkey is our other runner. His race has divided and I wish he had gone into the other division. That one looks very winnable, whereas our division has a few potentially well handicapped looking sorts. However I still think he will run well and go close. "
Jason Maguire goes to Southwell for one ride- Agent Fedora in the 16.55. A general 10/3 shot. He's had 3 winners for Kim Bailey in the last 4 days and the trainer rates this horse as having an 'outstanding chance'. Horse has seemed to be crying out for 3miles and the good ground should also suit.
Gone for a small-ish stakes ew Yankee- 3.00 Asc - Fencing (Bluesky) 4.55 Sth - Agent Fedora 5.15 Tip - Stuccodor (Dex/STH) 5.30 Sth - Brass Monkey (ROTO)
Afternoon guys one from my alerts but can't remember why is BUCKSTAY 4.30 pont currently 6/1 so wil go ew to be safe GL if you play today
Most of these in the 2.30 have raced prominently in the past, so there should be plenty of pace, which will suit Cruck Realta, who can wear them all down in the straight. That's the theory, anyway.
