7.55 Kempton Belgian Bill 5/4 confident bet 2.10 Exeter Captain Sunshine 9/4 confident bet 4.10 Exeter Mrs Peachey no prices yet confident I'll probably get a treble up tomorrow just to warn you all.
I'm hoping to get to Exeter tomorrow, the opener looks a decent novice (race won by Guillinbursti last year) and not sure the Nicholls/Walsh combo of Provo should be odds on in a race with some useful sorts standing their ground. 2.40 Looks a cracking race, if all 8 stand their ground it's a great each way betting heat and the one I like is TalkontheStreet who had some very useful bumper and novice hurdle form and tried fences for the first time. Keppols Hill will be fav but this could be a decent race and he may not have things his own way. 3.10 I like the look of Sustainability each way - Venetia has been busy lately and her horses are starting to show some form (5 winners from last 12), taking on a hotpot and will be each way value. 3.40 Forever Present progressed well last year in bumpers and I expect Henderson to have this mare fit and should go close. Good luck all
Bangor 2.00 Kauto Relko 17/2 A competitive handicap chase but this horse has run twice with credit already this season. Unseated when still in with a chance at the business end of a listed event at Market Rasen then followed it up with a decent run at Cheltenham. Now down in grade and with his trainer in great form I reckon this one will give me a nice run for my money EW.
I'm with Chaninbar on Kauto Relko as he cost me last time. And you can't ignore a Gold Cup and Derby winner
2.00 Bangor Quartz De Thaix 14/1 Venetia Williams's 8 year old clearly comes with some risks attached after a woeful campaign in his 4 runs last season (1 chasing, 3 hurdling) but if she's reinvigorated him during his 259 day break then I think he has the potential to comfortably beat this Class 3 field off a mark of 130. Clearly the most talented horse on his day (at least over hurdles) Quartz De Thaix's rating over the smaller obstacles peaked at a mark of 148 with his best career performance a very impressive victory in a Class 2 handicap hurdle off a mark of 142 under top weight back in November 2010. Although more lightly raced over the larger obstacles, he did put in some very nice performances in the early months of 2011. After landing a 5 runner Beginners' Chase when odds on at Hereford over an extended 2m5f on heavy ground in February 2011 from a horse who won by 34L on his next start (still pretty ordinary form), he won what has turned out to be a very hot Novice Chase on his next start in facile fashion by 18L. Although only a 4 runner field, I think the form of this race can be taken on merit as it was a strongly run affair. Under todays jockey Aiden Coleman, Quartz De Thaix took up the running from 3 out and he was eased close home to score at Newton Abbott over 2m5f in March of last year. The form of that race has worked out very, very well. The second Ace High, who was receiving 6lb from Venetia Williams charge, won his next start in a Novice Chase before running an excellent 3rd off a mark of 142 in a handicap on the back of a years absence last month. The 3rd home Ikorodu Road, beaten 36L and also receiving 6lb, is now rated 141 over the larger obstacles (although it did take him a year to win again and reach this rating) whilst the 4th Rebel Du Maquis (technically receiving 1lb from Quartz De Thaix given Ryan Mahon's claim) won his next two starts over fences, the latter being an 11L success off a mark of 142. Based on this effort alone, it really makes Quartz De Thaix's mark of 130 look very manageable. 10 days after that excellent Novice Chase success, Quartz De Thaix made his handicap debut over fences at the Cheltenham Festival in the Grade 3 Byrnes Group Plate off a mark of 137 over 2m5f where he was sent off the 7/1 3rd choice in the betting. That day he seemed outpaced when the tempo was lifted and he dropped back in the field before rallying late on to finish a very respectable 16L beaten 7th. He definitely shaped as if he would relish the step up in trip which he gets today with the extended 3m today. That was his last start of the 2011/2012 season and he really didn't perform very well after that. He made his reappearance in Listed Handicap at Cheltenham in October when pulled up before embarking on 3 hurdles runs between November-February whereby he was very poor as well. He certainly wasn't the same horse that was seen in the early months of 2011 and I honestly have no clue why he performed so badly. He's had a long 9 month absence since his last run and I'm hoping Venetia Williams has gotten to the bottom of him because at 8 years old he certainly shouldn't be on the sort of downgrade that he appeared to be on in his 4 runs last season. Although pulled up on his seasonal reappearance last year, his career best effort over hurdles came on the back of a 7 month break so he clearly has the ability to go well fresh and I'm hoping that's the case tomorrow. Although unproven over 3m, I certainly think he shouldn't have a problem with this trip given his staying on performance over shorter in at the Cheltenham Festival and I think he could even improve for the step up in trip. Aidan Coleman takes the ride and I think its very interesting he comes to Bangor as Venetia Williams has two decent looking chances at Exeter (both of whom Coleman has won on) so I'm hoping that's a sign that a big run is expected from Quartz De Thaix. Although he comes here on the back of a woeful 2011/2012 season which is clearly a big concern, I think he looks potentially far too well handicapped to leave unbacked at 14/1 and with Venetia Williams in red hot form at present I hope this 8 year old can rediscover the form of 20 months ago and begin the season with a bang.
Morning chaps... Usually at this time of the morning ive had at least a quick scan of the days racing but Ardent has got my head in a right spin as ive been looking at just the 1 AW race for his comp... I need a bloody break now...!!! So off for a brew and hopefully i can look at some proper racing... Only joking Ardent... You couldn't have picked me n Bob a more competitive race had you tried... Back in a bit...
Morning, troops. Bet of the day for this correspondent has to be SERABAD in the card commencer across the water at old Downpatrick (12.35). Was very decent over hurdles in France (Listed placed) but in his 2 runs for old boy Mullins last term proved highly disappointing, especially on his last run back in January. However, the stable have stuck with him, he should have matured and strengthened with a full summer on his back and if returning to his level of form across the Channel then he should be very, very, and I do mean very, very, hard to beat. In fact on that form he could take high rank amongst this season’s novice hurdlers. Meanwhile, a punters beware message is again appropriate today as we have another ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ (2.10 Exeter). I would never bet in these as half the field are only lining up to qualify for the Final whilst amongst the other 50% there are more plots than in an Agatha Christie novel. Although as there are only 6 runners in today’s ‘version’ maybe the latter won’t be such a big deal! Good luck, team.
Nowt catching the eye today, too busy looking forward to Cheltenham this weekend. I will leave you with this little nugget though: The german word for "nipples" is "Brustwarzen" which translates literally to "breast-warts". How odd
Suitabaly refreshed after a good cuppa n kitkat and still nowt says back me now... So here's what may or not come in... Bangor... 1.00 - Pampelone, 6/4 1.30 - Seedless, 7/2 2.00 - Lively Baron, 9/2 2.30 - Moidore, eves 3.00 - Old Magic, 5/4 3.30 - Benjamin Britten, 7/2 4.00 - Mistyboreen, 7/1 Exeter... 1.40 - Cloudy Copper, 7/1 2.10 - Captain Sunshine, 6/4 2.40 - Talkonthestreet, 4/1 3.10 - Bold Henry, 2/5 3.40 - Smokey George, 2/1 4.10 - Mrs Peachey, 7/2 Good luck if you playing today... SBC - That 2.10 race you have flagged up with the Agatha Christie plot in it could be the paper back version with only 6 runners...
mornings--rare midweek visit for me----only real fancy is a swift double at southwell sands BEAUTIFUL DAY 2-50 TAKE COVER 3-20 WIN WIN DOUBLE CAN YOU DIG IT----OHHHHH YEAHHHH
The 4:10 my knockout comp race so only one I've really had a look at, I think Lady from Geneva could there or there abouts at a decent price
Lucky 15 EW 1:20 Southwell Dewala 25/1 2:00 Bangor Monkerty Tunkerty 3/1 2:40 Exeter Allthekingshorses 4/1 4:55 Kempton Deveze 14/1
Just done the same, it seems a 4 horse race, and so i left the AP horse out in the end! I think Dont Back Down will give the fav something to think about in the 3.05 at DP, and Sustainability the same in the 3.10 at Exeter good luck to all today
