Off Topic UK / EU Future

Having seen all of your predictions flop it would be prudent to wait and see.

 

David Mundell the Scottish Secretary suggests that should the current withdrawal agreement be voted down, you should then bring it back again and again until the MPs change their minds. So MPs in his opinion can change their minds, but the public is not allowed to have a second look and say at what is proposed.

 

A second referendum, no. We had one, that was bad enough, now to call for a second because the outcome is not what was expected is wrong. If a second went went with the remain vote would we be allowed a third on the basis of two from three (three from five, and on and on) or would voting to remain be an end of all discussion on the matter, from those who got a blooded nose the first time around? We were lied to to get us in in the first place, and again for the first referendum in 1975. Both sides were as bad as each other in 2016 and will we have to suffer all this EU related garbage for a fourth time and third for a vote?

Also perhaps David Lammy should have researched his quoting of Churchill, the least he could have done was not quote one line completely out of context and in a way that supports his own myopic viewpoint.

“We [Britain] are bound to further every honest and practical step which the nations of Europe may make to reduce the barriers which divide them and to nourish their common interests and their common welfare. We rejoice at every diminution of the internal tariffs and the martial armaments of Europe. We see nothing but good and hope in a richer, freer, more contented European commonalty. But we have our own dream and our own task. We are with Europe, but not of it. We are linked, but not comprised. We are interested and associated, but not absorbed. And should European statesmen address us in the words which were used of old, ‘Wouldest thou be spoken for to the king, or the captain of the host?’, we should reply, with the Shunammite woman: ‘I dwell among mine own people.'” 15 February 1930

or the 1953 version.
We are with Europe but not of it; we are linked but not compromised. We are associated but not absorbed. If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea.

 

So if Remain had won in the last election by the same margin would the whole thing be over? Or would the Farages of this country have constantly yapped on about another one?

Also if you think both sides were as bad as each other we must be speaking about a different referendum, the only 'lies' that came out from the Remain side were innaccurate predictions about how damaged the economy would be.

I've given up hope of us escaping this ****show. I'm resigned to the fact that my quality of life will be diminuished for the next decade or so and i'll never be able to live with my family in the country I grew up in (saying that both my little brothers don't have dual nationality, so they might have to move out too).

All this because of the old and the uneducated xenophobes in this country. I'm still waiting for a single positive from Brexit, nearly 3 years on, and I reckon I can keep on waiting...

 

I'm reminded of Asimov when I hear the brexiters (the flat-earthers of politics imho) harping on about both sides lying: “When people thought the Earth was flat, they were wrong. When people thought the Earth was spherical they were wrong. But if you think that thinking the Earth is spherical is just as wrong as thinking the Earth is flat, then your view is wronger than both of them put together”

 

Toby you know that is not true. Why is it both sides have to exaggerate to a ridiculous level (even a five year old would be surprised by), to make their point?

No wonder those of us willing to weigh up the options, and then make a decision based on the current situation find it so difficult to get accurate information. Please try and keep it real because all you do is damage your position.

ps: Toby not directed only at you but you caught me in a mean moment

 

KC i've asked loads of Brexiters and never got a real answer back. If you have one please let me know?

 

I must admit that I would not use examples from dead people Zen. Talking about what dead people may have thought is the safest form of slander - they can't answer back. Nobody has any idea what side they would have been on in modern debates. Your quote also implies that he would have been in favour of Scottish independence ie. linked but not compromised, associated but not absorbed.
As for a second referendum - I must admit the thought of the actual debate leading up to such an event, and the divisive aspects of it fill me with a certain trepidation - when will the reconciliation finally begin ? But democracy is not frozen in time - it allows for changing opinions, and for the ability to change mistakes - as in repeated elections. Or do you think that election results should stand for all time ? I'm sorry but denying the population the chance to change their minds is a little bit like saying to a child 'You chose it now you have to eat it' - the electorate are not children. All of the opinion polls taken suggest that there is not only a majority in favour of a second referendum, but also in favour of staying in the EU.

 

A 5 year old would have more idea...

 

So how many will May be beaten by and what happens to her next ?

 

Oh dear, get the dreary insults out, again. I am tired of accusations of being an uneducated xenophobe, unintelligent and racist (I’ve heard it all) most of the people accusing me of this are very quick to throw insults about but very slow to seek any reason as to why I voted to leave the EU. If someone could actually give me some benefits of remaining in an uncontrollable, profligate bureaucracy I am willing to listen but until the insults stop that will be a severely uphill task.

Should we ever actually leave the EU, and as I write our MPs appear to wish to scupper that, there are many benefits we will have.

Unless we remain tied to the EU there will be the benefit of not paying into their large uncontrollable coffers – just where does that money go currently? How HMG chooses to use this windfall is another matter. What are the financial benefits of remaining in the EU, certainly the upfront cost of membership isn’t reciprocated by trade coming our way. My very small company is bound by a lot of regulation that has come from the EU and by leaving I would hope this burden is reduced – though I can see a “clone-and –go” system where HMG and HMRC keep the “best bits” or at least best for them. Having worked in mechanical/electrical engineering since leaving school all the talk of frictionless trade leaves me cold, if you know your product is going somewhere you prepare paperwork in advance, stopping to show your paperwork isn’t exactly a problem as travelling in and out of Britain one still needs a passport so why not a goods passport too? Transport and travelling is still subject to the vagaries of strikes by a whole host of people providing services to travellers or businesses, that won’t stop. I cannot comment on the financial sector, which is the one always cited as having the most to lose, I didn’t understand it before and am at a total loss with it now.

I might have, at least, some say in who runs my life. Currently our elected government have objurgated their responsibility and have allowed the EU to become their overlords, ignoring the House of Lords. If I don’t like what HMG is doing at least I have a chance, along with the rest of the population, to get rid of them. I don’t have a say in how the EU conducts itself – and the European Parliament is an incredibly expensive sop to the people. Does the Parliament really need to cycle between Brussels and Strasbourg with other functions split between the aforementioned cities and ‘s-Gravenhage (or Den Haag), Luxembourg and Frankfurt?

We would be able to conduct business to our advantage and not as an afterthought in the EU’s bloc mentality thinking. The Common External Tariff keeps prices high and does not benefit the EU’s citizens. The regulations allow little scope for divergence and getting the best possible deal for the citizens

As to some lesser bullet point type things there is the fishing rights issue (which HMG are trying to give away), the EU (soon to be 27 members) is generally too unwieldy and stifles innovation. The EU has not moved fast or effectively enough in the sphere of AI or genetic crop modification, basically its regulatory bodies are over cautious to an extreme that is hurting itself. Curious that the UK has more leading universities than the rest of Europe together and our technology companies are thriving.

A strange thing is that the UK government would be able to nationalise business, should they so desire – something they cannot currently do, Mr Corbyn will be pleased.

As to continued argument should the Remain side have won, seeing how they have behaved in defeat, I can foresee a plethora of laws outlawing any opposition or expressions of contrary opinion to the EU.

Lastly, on using quotes from dead people. I didn't start that David Lammy did.

 

OK Toby I'll take this at face value. Basically 31/12/2020, 31/12/2025, 31/12/2030 and 31/12/2050 the UK will most likely exist as a country with a population of more or less 70 million people. The quality of life for those people, and their aspirations for future generations, will depend on the situation at the time.

At the moment there are indications that the EU is heading towards uncharted territory with numerous unconnected problems arising in parallel. For example:

• In Spain a far right party has gone from being a joke to gaining 11 regional elected government members and has gone from zero to 11.5% in national polls in less than 6 months. Add that to other lurches to the right throughout the EU.
• The French have sustained demonstrations leading to death, injuries, and damage to property and national monuments. You may say the French have always demonstrated. But it isn't often that the demonstrators are rewarded with concessions. What message does this send to other disgruntled people in other EU countries? And there is a real economical cost to these events.
• The Euro, as what many see as a failed experiment has run out of steam. While the PIIGS countries had many people with property they could be fed cheap credit and enticed to buy German exports. That has ended and now we see a drop in German growth and few obvious markets to sustain the German manufacturing machine.
• The EU, and Germany in particular, has allowed a large influx of Muslims. The impact of this is yet to be seen beyond the response of the growth of the right, and the reintroduction of some borders. Agreed many muslim immigrants are innocent sheep, but bearing in mind they are indoctrinated to believe the after-life holds bigger sway than this one, and that non-believers and LBGT people deserve serious penalties, they sit in communities as ticking time bombs.
• The level of corruption and the hidden bank debts of many Mediterranean countries could be another ticking time bomb.

Whether all or any of these issues becomes serious over the next 5 to 20 years remains to be seen but it is obvious that if the worst happens the UK would be better off out of the EU.

At the moment the UK imports far more products from the EU than we export to it. Being out of the EU would allow the UK to move to a position of greater self-sufficiency. Under WTO rules cars manufactured in the UK would be more attractive economically than those imported from the EU. That means those companies with manufacturing in the UK will have an advantage. On the other end of the scale the supermarkets could buy from a far wider number of countries without paying the EU for the privilege of buying from EU countries. We can return to world markets to buy cheap food in particular, outside the Common Agricultural Policy.

While in theory the EU, as a large trading block should be able to negotiate free trade deals they have frequently failed to do so. Yet before the UK is out of the EU, countries are forming a queue for a UK free trade deal. The UK may end up in a far better global trading position on its own.

And to add to that do not forget that the UK contains a substantial well off population. Just to offer one statistic. Inside the EU we share an average unemployment rate of 7.9%. Outside it is 4.2%. There are many other stats to illustrate that the UK will have little trouble attracting investment. Here three of actual examples:

• "Vancouver venture capital firm Chrysalix and Japanese VC group Global Brain will both open European HQs in the UK, and respectively invest up to £110 million in AI and robotics and £35 million in deep-tech start-ups in the country." April 26 2018.
• And while this for example is UK to UK it demonstrates what investors are after. "November 29, 2018. Novartis is on the move in the UK, relocating its national headquarters from Frimley in Surrey to London to get closer to the capital’s emerging life sciences cluster"
• And the likely move of Apple into 500,000 sq. feet of Battersea power station in 2021.

And these investments were made after the referendum.

Fishing within territorial waters gives those in the industry a far more stable environment in which to invest. The Petershead fishermen do not need to be told by the EU the importance of sustainable herring fishing, but when they see quotas going to Spanish boats, who send the fish to a subsidised market (fish is far cheaper in Spain than in the UK, even in Madrid 200 miles from the nearest coast), no wonder they cannot accept job losses and laid-up boats. And bear in mind that jobs created in agriculture and fishing will largely be in the most deprived areas.

There is talk by remainers that the UK needs immigrants. But outside the UK we can determine where they come from, what qualifications they have, and how many. Being out of the EU does not mean we cannot attract EU immigrants. It just means we have a bigger choice.

I could go on. And yes we could debate each point, and we could discuss the benefits of the EU. But to say there are no benefits from Brexit is just crazy. As would the vice-versa case be.

I by the way have no extreme view one way or the other. I believe Brexit or no Brexit can be made a success. The issue I have is that once a decision is made we need to push on and make a success of it. Yes we need to give the supporters of the rejected position a while to get over it but once it is done those who sit around crying will be the losers.

 

I didn't accuse you of quoting from dead people Zen. What I said was that I was not overly impressed that Lammy did - it spoilt what was, otherwise, a very good speech. You are also factually wrong regarding nationalization - the levels of nationalization proposed by Corbyn are actually normal for most EU countries. There is nothing in his manifesto which would not be allowed within EU law.
The truth is that you already 'run your life' Zen. Actually Britain was not only in full agreement with 95% of all EU Law (a higher percentage than any other country), but shared in framing most of them. The EU gives you a pooled sovereignty which is far stronger than the protections which the individual state can give you. Withdraw from the EU and you fall into the lap of the USA and TTIP - you open your legs for the World to jump in on their conditions. Where is the sovereignty in that ?

 

I have watched quite a lot of the debate this afternoon, and despite what we feel too often, there are many good honest, caring MPs. Unfortunately not enough of them are on the two front benches. We have seen the hardliners still wedded to their ideology, while others really do want to find a way of getting the population to reunite. The real trouble is that there are so many different ideas on what the way forward should be. The government will lose the vote tonight because MPs have realised that what is on offer is worse than what we have already. I know from personal experience that what people believe in one week, can be very different a couple of weeks later. Democracy is constantly moving, and to say that it is set in stone is completely wrong.
From my point of view we are constantly looking at things from party political lines, but that is currently being shown to be a total failure. Read back over the years and you find a common theme, Ministers of the Crown more interested in keeping their jobs than doing the right thing for the country. Ministers who regard their constituency members at best to be tolerated, but ignored basically. The democracy in the UK is fragile to say the least, and to have Ministers of the Crown who at every job they undertake make a total mess of it reminds me of football managers who fail constantly, yet still pop up again at another club.

 

Even worse defeat than expected for May..

Where does that leave her ....

Out of a job?

 

What we have seen tonight is the worst defeat for a government in almost a hundred years. Under normal circumstances the government would have to resign. I might have guessed beforehand that they would lose, but not by those sort of numbers. Maybe SH is right that my predictions are not up to speed. Not sure that Dan was up to speed either.

Where to now? A motion of no confidence will probably fail, so we are back to how will the government deal with this. May back to Brussels and the legal agreement that has been agreed by May which is the final deal. So maybe an extension of article 50, or a commitment to remain in the CU and SM?

 

Looks like a spot of remoaner nappy changing

A gambler could have made a fortune betting against your predictions.

The EU have announce they will not renegotiate the present offered deal. The most obvious and the best outcome is to leave without a deal rather than accept this rejected bad deal.

 

Difficult to predict the pound it being already undervalued. But instant reaction is positive but not by enough for anyone to get excited.

I think wharever happens the pound will not move a lot. I know I moved my economy around so I'm 50% Euro 50% pound, so totally nuetral. Rather boring but safe. I'm sure many traders, investors and companies have done the same. After all the GBP/Euro rate has been very stable for over 18 months.

Sadly I'm not sure tomorrow will change much. Turkeys do not vote for Christmas.

 

The most obvious and the best outcome is to not leave the EU, which is quite possible now. The PM has finally, a year too late, been forced to talk to other parties. She has wasted months holding an election that stripped her of her majority, and forked out taxpayers money to keep herself in power. She is almost as much a disaster as Grayling, and that takes some doing.
Corbyn has sat on the fence and to be honest still no one knows exactly what his policy is. It has paid off so far, but not for much longer. He will either have to go along with his own views, or listen to, and act according to the wishes of his members.

 

I'm so pleased with your above statement. I can now rule out the possibility of that option.