Off Topic UK / EU Future

Macron and Merkel are the increasingly unpopular leaders of the two dominant members of a failing club that some would like us to remain allied to. Several member states have sensed the growing weakness in the old order and are openly defying the previously unchallenged central control post. This will encourage further acts of defiance leading to irreparable damage to the EU. The Eurocrats were previously warned of the explosion of euroscepticism throughout the EU but foolishly pushed on with their fatal plans for further intergration that the public dislike so much.
The massive failure of these two former titans in their respective near neighbouring countries has everything to do with the UK and Brexit. If their own people are totally unconvinced by them why should we be? Merkel was ruined by her immigration policies and the Marcron boy by his arrogant pursuit of a federal EU controlled by Germany and France.

 

I have to concede that you are far more of an expert in divided parties and unpopular leaders - with your close alignment to same.

 

You do have to wonder what is between the ears of some of these Brexit supporting MPs. “We have a reciprocal agreement where I can go to Ireland and ask for an Irish passport, and someone from Ireland can come to the UK and ask for a British passport. We have that system. That's the system we have, isn't it?” This from the Tory MP for West Leicestershire, Andrew Bridgen speaking on Radio Ulster. We know that if you were born in NI that entitles you to hold an Irish passport, in fact Ian Paisley jnr, the disgraced and suspended DUP politician recommended people in the north should apply for one to protect their rights, but if all people born in the UK were also entitled to receive one, the Irish passport office would go into meltdown. It make you scared about the competence of some MPs, and shows that sticking a coloured rosette on a candidate will see people vote for the most ill informed.

 

Tonight we see plenty of goodwill towards May from the leaders of the other countries in the EU and it looks as if the transition deal will be extended to help the UK. The trouble for the PM is not in the EU, but behind her on the back benches.

 

The transition deal will only be extended if it exists in the first place Frenchie. We have to get a deal first, because no deal=no transition period, though I suspect that emergency legislation would be brought in quite quickly. What I do not understand is why TM. could waste everybodies time by going over there today and, in the end, having nothing new in terms of content in her address. Any schoolboy could see that there are only 3 possibilities now. The first is unlimited membership of the customs union, the second is a breakup of the UK. and a united Ireland, and the third is the reappearance of a hard border in Ireland with a possible re emergence of unrest there. TM has nothing to offer because there is no other solution to the Irish question. In the end the only viable solutions are either a change of government, or a second referendum, both of which the EU. would wait for, but nothing else.

 

Option 4 - agree that NI needs more time to be sorted out so kick it in the long grass to be dealt with during the IP. I suspect that's where we will end up.

 

It is always a possibility Dan. They could just sign up for a long transition period with the proviso that Britain has to find a solution to the Irish question (second backstop or whatever) before it is free to exit the customs union - but if there's no solution available now will there be one then ? It is obvious that a full Brexit is not possible without either breaking up the UK or allowing special conditions for Northern Ireland (which, of course, Scotland will demand as well). Did any of those idiots who voted Brexit actually think about the possibilities in Ireland before doing so ?

 

My suspicion is that a lot of what is going on is an attempt to play for even more time still. She could take a high risk chance of agreeing to the backstop, the one she has already signed up to, and hoping that the revolt that would come from the ERG and DUP would be counter balanced by the moderates from the Labour party when a deal was put to the vote. Can she really go back to Parliament and say that nothing will be happening for months while talks continue? I suppose she might try and sell it as getting the right deal is worth waiting for. It does seem bizarre that since the referendum there is still no clear and agreed plan that the government can speak with a united voice to.

 

Personally I don't think everyone who voted out was an idiot. I disagree with them but get their reasons for doing so. And to be fair the border wasn't seen as a major issue during the referendum.

All of that said, I think we'll end up with a border. There's no other way.

 

The border will be reinstated on the orders of Brussels once their cynical use of this political pawn is fully exposed and confronted.

 

What have we learned from all the waffle in Brussels today?
Firstly that any backstop will not be time limited. If that is correct then it overcomes one of the sticking points.
Secondly that an extension to the transition period is now likely simply to ensure that a trade deal would have time to be completed. A realistic time frame for that would be nearer five years than two. TM can say in one breathe that she is not seeking an extension, while she then goes on to say that is exactly what she is would agree to.
Thirdly it is emerging that the whole of the UK will remain in the CU, not just NI until everything can be sorted.

So it all returns to the Commons now. The DUP have said they do not like it, but would not bring the government down because of it. So we are over to the ERG cult and what they would do. They have no real plan, but could be a problem for her. Suddenly they are worried about what it would cost the country, but still do not wish to talk about the disaster that would occur if there were to be no deal. Labour are hardening their position against the government as they watch the government slowly falling apart.

Once again we can see with all the positioning that different factions are taking, this is becoming a crunch point for both the PM and the government. Without any agreed position the peoples vote would provide a way out for them. Despite what has been said promises will have to be broken to some sections as it is impossible to please everyone.

 

We have learned that they make excellent waffles in Belgium Frenchie What has not been considered is that any deal must also go through the EU Parliament. I do not think they would block it but I know they are highly miffed about being sidelined by the EU Commission throughout all of this.

 

Fair point cologne, but from what I read they have been supportive of the Commission and don't have that many differences. The Parliament has been very concerned about the effect on people, and may feel that not enough has been done to protect them. What I do know for certain from the correspondence I have received, is that they are doing their best to ensure that EU citizens in the UK should not be used as a cash cow, and UK citizens in the EU should not be disadvantaged.

 

I know that there has been a lot of work behind the scenes which safeguard the rights of citizens in the event of a 'Hard' or 'No Deal' Brexit Frenchie. Nonetheless it is unnerving to know that the way EU Citizens are treated in the UK will have to be reciprocated. Are you taking French nationality ? I received dual nationality 3 years ago so am ok. but for others here, they should be doing it quickly, if at all, because Germany only allows dual nationality with other EU. states - so after the Brexit date any Brits naturalizing here may have to give up British nationality. Those doing it in the Netherlands or Austria have to give it up under all circumstances. For me it was a bloody expensive operation having to get documents such as birth certificate, marriage and divorce certificates etc. out of the UK. all with an Apostille stamp and then have certified translations done here.

 

France allows dual nationality still, so if we decide to follow that course we could retain our UK status as well. Two friends have just received their French nationality, and because both of them had been divorced to accumulate all the paperwork and have it translated finished up costing them over a €1,000. The French government has just been preparing for a no deal, and the rights of people who have lived here for more than five years, and so far it looks as if they wish to do the right thing, and simply ask us to prove that we have been here that long. Residency applications may be needed, something we were told we didn't need and they didn't issue when we first arrived, but we will see over the next couple of months what happens.

 

Somebody should tell those fools marching in London today that the UK has already had a people's vote - it was called the referendum on 23rd June 2016.

 

At the same time we could tell the mob in Harrogate that they won, it's being delivered and they should now STFU which is what they keep telling Remainers.

 

I would have thought that SH should be protesting somewhere as he keeps telling us that his government is not delivering the type of Brexit that he wants.

 

It is important to achieve the main aims outlined before the referendum, that is what people voted for. the PM must stick to her original demands and not be undermined by remainer influences within her cabinet and the civil service.

 

You may have missed the memo - we're leaving in March 2019. Time you all piped down in my opinion.