Tuesday's Meetings Newmarket Flat 8 Races 1:15-5:20p.m. Exeter N/H 7 Races 2:05-5:35p.m. Wolverhampton(E) A/W 6 Races 5:45-8:15p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Even a stopped watch and all that... so David Pipe to win a decent race with You Say What in the staying Chase tomorrow. New headgear should revive this horse and yard are in good form for them!
I'm very sweet on one at Newmarket, which given my early and recent form is little confidence to the forum, but I'll be backing one e/w at big odds which I think (pray!) Will do well.. Newmarket 3.35 Mercenary Rose 40/1 Have a good day all
Western Australia opened at 7/2 for the Fielden Stakes but I want to oppose him and looked at other options. The trouble was that several held multiple entries and so I had to wait to see how many took him on. With 7 runners left in Western Australia is now between 11/8 and 7/4 in the betting and I can't have that as any value. Predictably the Timeform preview on ATR gives the O'Brien horse the nod with the usual comments. I wish I could get a "Painting by numbers" gig like that, just picking the obvious one, giving the second favourite as the danger and the third in the betting as the other option. Anyway, Western Australia looked nothing special until finishing third in the Futurity (Former Racing Post Trophy) at Doncaster, where he was a 50/1 shot. As ever, the assessors chose to heavily upgrade his rating and he went up from 99 to 110 after what some people may have thought was a fluke performance late in the season. Western Australia returned to action in the Listed Patton Stakes, a race O'Brien has farmed of late but he was beaten into second by a horse rated 98 and I thought that looked a very weak race. The form coming from that Dundalk race has been pretty whiffy since and I think Western Australia is a terrible price at 11/8 with some layers. Taking him on is John Gosden's Kick On, who ran in two Newmarket maidens, winning the second one. That latter race has thrown up 11 winners since, perhaps most notably so far is Constantinople, who failed by a short head in a Handicap off a Mark of 97 over what looked a completely inadequate 10F recently. Kick On went on to run in the Futurity where he was a couple of lengths off the action in 6th place. There is a mixed bag of form from that race, with places reversed at Newbury recently when favourite Space Blues failed to fire and King Ottokar won it, having done poorest of the contenders in the Futurity itself. Enough reason to envisage the Gosden horse turning it round with Western Australia this season, as a more lightly raced sort from the right yard. Kadar is well regarded by Karl Burke and he stays well for a Scat Daddy colt. He was fancied a few times last year and more than one person advised him to me a a Derby contender. We only saw him once and clearly there could be a lot to come yet. The worries I have are that the form of his race has some winners in it but of a modest standard and I am not sure the 4/7 Fav Waldstern, whom he beat in making a winning debut, is that talented a horse, because the races he has been in have not worked out very well. His maiden win only threw up two modest winners from 35 starts and even his Zetland Stakes run looks ropey. Kadar missed races because of fast ground last year and with it Good-Firm, Good in places at Newmarket, I feel he must be opposed at 4/1 with his current RPR a modest 86. I have gone in search of value and landed on Richard Hannon's Walkinthesand who ran twice at Sandown over 7F last season. He went down by a short head on debut at odds of 14/1 in a class 5 maiden before returning to the same course and distance for a class 3 conditions stakes where he saw off Fav Good Fortune in decent style with the pair clear of the other two runners. Walkinthesand gave the impression he would have cleared away had the race been a mile and his bare RPR of 100 is a stone better than Kadar, yet he is twice the odds and has a good frame himself to fill into. I reckon he'll be a decent colt and in a race where the favourite looks vulnerable, the Hannon horse appeals as the value bet. 3.00 Newmarket Walkinthesand 8/1 (Kick On the alternative but a bit skinny.)
Old boy Tropics goes at wolves tonight 5/1 ,kirby on top , who rode Stake Acclaim to win the other day , Tropics is more than capable of seeing off tonight’s opponents and with the Ivory yard going well he’s a good bet !
Morning Three bets for the ITV races at Newmarket 1.50-Flavius Titus @ 9-1 [Paddy Power]...Each/Way [4 Places] 2.25-Dubai Dominion @ 8-1 [Paddy Power]..Each/Way [3 Places] 3.00-Boerhan @ 12-1 [Skybet]..Each/Way
Yes mate. All over it last night and the price has crashed. The ew money would be for The Galloping Bear at a nice price. Interesting as Barney informed you that Olly Stevens is now assistant to Alan King, explains a lot!
The Free Handicap used to see some decent types back in the day, names of winners such as Green Desert, Danehill, Mystiko and Diffident jump out from the list of previous winners. It has been of lesser significance for a while now though. This year sees John Gosden's Azano a clear favourite and predictably he's well tipped up. 7/4 looks a bit skinny to me, even getting weight from half his opponents as piggy in the middle number 4 in the seven runner field. I think there's a chance that his run behind future Greenham winner Mohaather in the Horris Hill may potentially be taken too literally and therefore mean the odds are shorter than they should be. The second favourite is Andrew Balding's Shine So Bright, who switched from Karl Burke's yard after his fifth in The Coventry at Ascot. He didn't win after that but placed in some good races. I feel the danger is that he may be a 6F horse. The Timeform blurb states that he'll be suited by the extra furlong but Gimcrack runners tend to be sprinters. Ribchester was a fairly rare exception but when Richard Fahey got the same vibe from Sand Of Mali it proved totally unfounded. The Gimcrack that Shine So Bright ran in doesn't look good form now either and I reckon there are reasons to see questionable value in the colt at 3/1, even with the stable in form and doing well for the owners. I thought Arctic Sound was the best value here at 6/1. the usual Mark Johnston caveats apply but he was progressive last season and his only poor run was when he seemed to fail to stay a mile. He was entered in the Fielden but it looks significant that he is back to the 7F where he beat Bye Bye Hong Kong in the Group 3 Tattersalls at Newmarket. Bye Bye Hong Kong won recently and although Arctic Sound has to concede weight he is the highest rated of these on 110 and remains with scope for more to come. Proven over course and distance, it is hoped that the Johnson runner can be tenacious and burn off the others. He has a good frame that should carry the weight and at this tricky time of the season you can risk less money by taking decent odds. 2.25 Newmarket Arctic Sound 6/1 Looks the value play.
In the opener at Newmarket I fancy artistic streak for Tom dascombe . I normally leave maidens well alone but seeing as it’s the first day of the flat season,why not. This daughter of new approach is related to several winners and although finishing down the field over cd last year that race has produced winners. I I’m having a go at 25/1 Cheers.
In the first televised race I'm taking Tommy Taylor to get ahead of Green Power. He looked well in the meeting at Doncaster a couple weeks back and only finished about a length and a half behind Green Power without emptying the tank.
3:50 Exeter - Sandhurst Lad (Should be suited by conditions, and on breeding should stay the trip too. Around 13/2 at time of writing. Pretty good rider on board. )
