Timeform Corner

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Timeform's View

Sectional Debrief Special: Future Champions Day, Newmarket
Simon Rowlands takes a look at Future Champions Day from the perspective of sectional times...

The provision of electronic sectional times at Newmarket's Future Champions Day enables us to establish how the races were run and whether or not individual horses in those races were advantaged or disadvantaged. Those sectionals have been provided by TurfTrax, and the usual caveats apply regarding accuracy. The following figures are for the individual winners of the races, rather than the leaders as is customary in other circumstances.

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What the figures identify is that none of the winners ran especially far from par, as identified by the mark-ups, which result from the difference between the actual finishing speed %s and optimum finishing speed %s. What's more, few of the close-up beaten horses ran especially inefficiently, either. Boring though it may be, what you see is (largely) what you get where the 2013 Future Champions Day is concerned: the results and the overall times tell you much of what you want to know.

To give a bit more depth, the overall times recorded by War Command, Al Thakira and Kingston Hill look pretty good compared to what might be expected of horses winning their races in the way they did. War Command ran remarkably efficiently after a slowish opening 1f - posting successive furlongs of 14.99s, 11.29s, 11.31s, 11.37s, 11.52s, 11.48s and 13.10s over the undulating 7f - in taking the Group 1 Dewhurst Stakes, and in the process forced his rivals into slightly slower-than-par finishes.

Al Thakira's win in the Group 2 Rockfel Stakes is more intriguing from a sectional point of view. Her by-furlong sectionals were 14.65s, 11.24s, 11.30s, 11.58s, 11.44s, 11.78s and 13.55s, showing that she went quicker than War Command (who is a better horse) through the first three and the fifth furlongs and that she predictably paid for this in the last two furlongs. Interestingly, though, her rivals paid even more, coming home slower still. As mentioned, the overall time is useful, but the sectionals suggest the margins were strung out somewhat by the run of the race.

By way of comparison, the smart older filly Fiesolana recorded the following sectionals in taking the Group 2 Challenge Stakes at the same distance: 14.44s, 11.22s, 11.38s, 11.45s, 11.58s, 11.54s, 12.63s, coming home fractionally quicker than par.

The juvenile colts which chased home Kingston Hill in the Gr3 Autumn Stakes had no excuses in sectional terms, and the winner's closing furlongs of 11.60s, 11.67s and 13.10s identify him as at least a length better than the result. Given that this was only Kingston Hill's second run, and that he accounted for 111-rated Oklahoma City by two lengths, he looks a contender for good prizes hereafter.

Fiesolana was responsible for the fastest final 1f and fastest final 2f on the card, but the three fastest final 3f came in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, with runner-up Hot Streak fastest of all at 35.53s. The winner Astaire, who made nearly all, was not flattered according to the sectionals, but anyone who supported Hot Streak is entitled to wonder whether that horse might have won under faster conditions. Hot Streak, who had posted exceptional sectionals at Ascot the week before, quickened sharply to dispute the lead 1f out (penultimate 1f of 11.20s) then flattened out near the line. Granted normal progress, Hot Streak could even be challenging for Champion Sprinter status in 2014.

 

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Timeform's View

Becher Chase Preview: Follow Captain sensible
Ahead of the Becher Chase on Saturday, Keith Melrose is channeling the spirit of the man after whom the race is named...

When more rhetorical commentators describe the qualities associated with Aintree's National course, terms like 'courage', 'resilience' and 'the symbiotic relationship between horse and rider' will often be close to hand. It seems a bit strange, then, that one of the 16 fences on the course, as well as one of the five races a year it plays host to, are named after a man whose most famous act was to hide in a ditch after he'd fallen off his horse.

That admittedly does something of a disservice to Martin Becher, who served in the Napoleonic Wars and was one of the pre-eminent riders of his day. He also played an important role in the founding of the Grand National in the 1830's, which is probably why Aintree chose to name what's now arguably the second-biggest race over the National fences in his honour back in 1992.

The Becher Chase, due to its being significantly longer than the likes of the Topham, is rightly seen as the leading dress-rehearsal for the Grand National. Three horses have won both races (Earth Summit after he took the National, Amberleigh House and Silver Birch before), while the likes of Clan Royal, Black Apalachi and Into The Red just among the Becher winners have also featured prominently in the big one.

The theme continues this year, with several of those entered already having encountered the Grand National. On His Own was the long-time ante-post favourite for this spring's National, that itself on the power of what he'd shown in the race the year before. He's currently favourite for this year's Becher, and is surely well handicapped from a lower mark than he's carried for either try in April.

The problem with On His Own isn't simply that he's fallen on both tries around this course; the context of those falls doesn't exactly encourage. He had jumped well prior to getting second Becher's wrong and coming down on his debut, while he made a few mistakes prior to exiting at second Valentine's in April over what are apparently softer fences. Even the inclination to make the odd mistake can cost around Aintree- or at any rate that's how we'll treat it until a body of evidence over the new fences tells us otherwise- so at around [7.0] On His Own looks short enough.

There are also doubts hanging over several others among the market leaders. Join Together, last year's runner-up on more testing ground, has a couple of poor runs this autumn to explain away. Walkon's stamina is far from proven, while his reappearance on the Mildmay Course left a little to be desired. Roberto Goldback made an inglorious debut over the National fences in April. Across The Bay is the strongest in the betting at the time of writing, but although the logic is easy to see his showing in the National, when he was prominent for a long way before he paid for forceful tactics, it was peppered with jumping errors.

One whose profile has few holes is Wyck Hill. A bold-jumping front runner, the type that do so well around here (the importance of a prominent ride is often overlooked over the National course), Wyck Hill beat Katenko fair and square at about this time last year. He is now just 5 lb higher, while Katenko has gone up 21 lb in the interim and shaped as though still ahead of his mark before coming down at the fourteenth in the Hennessy on Saturday. With his recent reappearance at Ascot likely to act as a sharpener, Wyck Hill can prove his worth over these fences on Saturday.

With so many of the market principals difficult to have much faith in, a couple of the bigger-priced runners become attractive all of a sudden. Big Fella Thanks was third in this last year on much softer ground. A greater speed test will evidently suit, but he has a long-standing reputation for doing his best work on the bridle at the best of times, so he's a sporting each-way bet rather than one to lump on.

One from the stable with a similar profile, Chartreux, makes even more appeal. He's far less exposed and gives the impression of one who'll thrive over the National fences. Prices around [30.0] understate the chance Chartreux has, with his jumping and stamina also beyond reproach here.

With all that said, if you have one bet in the Becher make it Bennys Mist. He improved through last season, impressing with his jumping in winning three times over fences and showing useful form in spite of shaping as though this sort of test will bring out the best in him. He flopped when sent off among the market principals in the Topham back in April, but on closer inspection that's no reason to be discouraged. That was Bennys Mist's third run in a month, which is a far more plausible reason for his flat run when you consider he'd jumped perfectly well until he started dropping away. Everything in his profile up to now suggests these fences will pose him few problems, while the continued good form of the Venetia Williams yard puts yet more in Bennys Mist's favour.

Were Captain Becher still around today, precedent suggests he'd play it safe and hedge his bets in the latest renewal of his race. On this occasion you're advised to take heed. Chartreux and even Big Fella Thanks can be back-up options, but the recommendation is to go with Wyck Hill and Bennys Mist, either of which could easily return here in the spring for a tilt at Grand National glory.

Recommendation:

Back Bennys Mist & Wyck Hill in the Becher Chase

 

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Timeform Notebook:

Timeform highlight two handicap hurdlers that should continue to climb the ranks...

There was a suspicion that Champagne West had been let in lightly by the assessor ahead of his handicap debut at Wincanton on Boxing Day, and those thoughts were confirmed as Phillip Hobbs' novice hurdler comfortably justified strong market support. Champagne West, who shaped with promise on his sole start in bumpers, boasted some strong form in novice hurdles - the race he finished second in at Ascot had worked out especially well - and it was impressive how far clear of the field himself and another unexposed horse (subsequent wide-margin winner Deputy Dan) had pulled at Warwick. The bare form of that Warwick win was worth much more than an opening mark of 123 and Champagne West, whose jumping is improving with experience, had little trouble winning the Pertemps Qualifier at Wincanton. Always prominent, Champagne West had his rivals in trouble turning for home and looked in firm control when Upswing fell at the final flight. It was an authoritative performance from a horse that could yet make an impact at graded level, but connections may be keen to continue in handicaps for the time being with a 9 lb rise looking more than fair.

Pass Muster was a fairly useful performer on the Flat and he exploited a lenient hurdling mark in good style at Musselburgh in November. He has been beaten on both starts since, firstly under a penalty at Exeter and then under his revised mark back at Musselburgh, but there is good reason to suspect that he remains fairly treated and can win again when conditions are in his favour. Pass Muster had the misfortune of bumping into the thriving and well-handicapped Portway Flyer at Exeter, and then the deteriorating ground went against him last week. Best suited by an easy two miles on a sound surface, Pass Muster travelled like the best horse at the weights for much of the way at Musselburgh, moving powerfully, leading four from home and only headed on the run-in by a big improver. Pass Muster clearly handles testing ground but he is at his best when the emphasis is on speed and he is a horse to note when conditions start to improve.

Timeform Notebook:

It was a profitable festive season for followers of the Notebook as Merlin's Wish, Many Clouds and Whisper all won. Merlin's Wish still hasn't convinced fully with his jumping but he stays extremely well and has improved of late, faced by thorough tests of stamina. He should carry on improving and could be an ideal type for races such as the Eider. Many Clouds had a simple task to complete at Wetherby but he did it in good style, jumping boldly and underling just how well he has taken to fences. Whisper is seen as a future chaser, but he had been running well in competitive handicap hurdles and managed to capitalise on the drop in class at Newbury. He was suited by how the race developed at Newbury, though, and could find things tougher up in the weights and back in more competitive events so is removed from the list.

Champagne At Tara failed to build on a promising hurdling debut when finishing fifth at Kempton, but he very much caught the eye, finishing with running left having raced keenly and been anchored in rear. He remains open to plenty of improvement and is one to note, particularly when qualified for handicaps. Close House made little impression against Oscar Whisky and Taquin Du Seuil but he has taken to fences well enough and can win when dropped to a lower grade.

Shutthefrontdoor - Disappointed last time but earlier efforts suggest he can develop into a smart novice.

Straidnahanna - Has twice shaped well in strong novice events and could do better in handicaps.

Merlin's Wish - Unexposed staying handicap chaser who will continue to be difficult to beat.

Close House - Once again shaped as if three miles was too far; will be suited by return to shorter.

Many Clouds - Genuine type that has taken well to chasing, already showing improved form.

Famousandfearless - Seemingly well regarded and type to improve for switch to handicaps.

Champagne At Tara - Shaped well on hurdling debut under considerate ride. Not knocked about last time.

Regal Encore - Looks set to enter handicaps on a lenient mark and is sure to progress.

Champagne West - Progressive novice that defied opening handicap mark with ease.

Pass Muster - Still potentially well treated based on fairly useful Flat form.

 

Timeform have launched their new site. For anyone just interested in an explanation of their Time figures you can view it here

 

Handicap Plots and Blots: Who to follow at the Festival? Interesting article.

 

Just spotted in my junk email the free version of TV Focus for today. The article is here but to summarise they selected 4 horses:

2nd at 6/1
Fell when in lead 2 out
Won 11/2
won 14/1

Wish I'd seen this earlier.

 

Simon Rowlands brings you the latest sectional update from the all-weather action on Friday. Read here


Debriefs from other meetings, and other features can be found here

 

In his latest investigative piece, Simon Rowlands tackles a couple of the more dubious measurements at National Hunt courses. To read more

 

By Simon Rowlands -- published 11th February 2014

The Racing Post letters page can make for depressing reading, even on those rare occasions when Laurie Williamson is not dissing the memory of Frankel with a diatribe of unparalleled tendentiousness.

The quality of all-weather racing has improved this winter, due mostly or entirely to Arena Racing Company’s injection of prize money leading into an All-Weather Champions’ Day in April.

Last week, we had a two-pronged assault on the blight of all-weather racing, linked, as this phenomenon would appear to be, to the decline of the Empire and to England’s inability to win a major football competition since 1966.

Both writers mentioned all-weather racing’s “low-grade” nature, one of them qualifying that term, ironically enough, with the word “tedious”.

Royal Ascot it most certainly is not, but is it fair to categorise all-weather racing in its entirety in such a way?

Perhaps. But only if you are prepared to dismiss racing at many other tracks in similar style.

If it is acceptable to denigrate Kempton, Lingfield, Southwell and Wolverhampton (the four UK all-weather tracks in operation) on this sole basis, then the same should apply to Chepstow, Brighton, Catterick, Ffos Las, Bath, and several other longstanding Flat turf courses, also.

There are a number of ways of measuring a course’s quality, but a consideration of the Timeform ratings of winners is one of the better ones. The figures for Flat racing in 2013 are as follows:

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Ascot was top of the pops for average Timeform rating of winners, followed by York and the Newmarket Rowley Mile course. The shaded all-weather tracks are all in the bottom half by this measure, but it should be noted that the distribution is skewed. Rather like the current English Premier League table, there are a small number of elite clubs and a much larger number of makeweights only ever a few points from safety or relegation.

The quality of all-weather racing has improved this winter, due mostly or entirely to Arena Racing Company’s injection of prize money leading into an All-Weather Champions’ Day in April. The average Timeform rating of winners on the all-weather in January 2014 was 78.0, where it had been between 73.5 and 74.5 in the previous three years. It is a good bet that all four all-weather courses will move up the table as a result.

Meanwhile, it is difficult to see the same happening for the other “gaff” tracks, one of which (Folkestone, average Timeform winner rating of 78.9 in 2012) went by the wayside before the start of the year.

It should also be noted that, while all-weather provides much lower-grade racing, it also provides a healthy amount of higher-grade racing, too.

Which course provided the largest number of winners in 2013 that ran to higher than 90 on Timeform ratings?

The answer is: Kempton. And Lingfield (all-weather) and Wolverhampton were in the top 10 by this measure also. This is a function of the volume of racing at those courses but is also a clear illustration that those courses do not provide an unrelenting diet of dross.

Those who suggest otherwise underline the shallowness of their argument more than anything else.

 

Timeform's Festival Top Jockey Bet

 

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By Stephen Molyneux -- published 24th March 2014

Timeform's Dubai expert, Stephen Molyneux, identifies two big-priced runners with good chances in the feature race.

To sum up, this looks a race in which to take a couple of the outsiders against what looks a vulnerable favourite.

The 2014 Dubai World Cup looks wide open on paper, the race lacking a standout candidate, and, if we are being honest, it is far from a vintage renewal, particularly with no American representation.

The current favourite, and a clear one at that, is Ruler Of The World but his position at the head of affairs is largely down to the shortcomings of the rest rather than his own compelling claims. Yes, he is the 2013 Derby winner, and yes, he ran a great race in the Champion Stakes behind Farhh on his final start, but his Epsom victory didn’t work out at all and it was soft ground at Ascot which brought his stamina into play, and there has to be a chance that he will be found wanting for a bit of speed here.

He is undoubtedly an intriguing runner, and there is certainly the prospect of further improvement to come this year, but there has to be a doubt as to whether it will come under these circumstances, so he looks opposable.

The lack of quality in the race is put into some perspective when Prince Bishop is considered by many to be a likely winner. Not in these quarters. Ok, so his clear affection for the surface has to count for something but is this seven-year-old really getting better? It's been more a case of him capitalising on the failings of others, in my opinion, in winning both his starts this season, and there are grounds for believing that either, or indeed both, Sanshaawes and African Story can reverse form with him granted a cleaner crack at things.

There are nagging stamina doubts hanging over African Story but he wasn’t stopping over half a furlong shorter when just failing to reel in Prince Bishop in the second round of the Maktoum Challenge, a race he really should have won. He was set loads to do in relation to the enterprisingly-ridden winner, a fact not lost on punters when he was sent off at evens to reverse form in the third round. He was clearly disappointing, but I was down at the start for the race and seconds before the starter released them he fairly whacked himself on the stalls, something that surely must have contributed to his lacklustre performance.

Sanshaawes finished second in that race but he endured a fairly brutal trip in relation to the winner, the Trakus stats suggesting he covered 22m more than Prince Bishop. Whilst that sort of stat can’t legislate for potential momentum loss it certainly didn’t help his cause and he is one of those that heads into the race on the back of a progressive Carnival, something that can count for plenty come the big night. He has won two of his four starts for Mike de Kock, striking as the sort that only ever does enough, and whilst his form as it stands isn’t good enough to be winning a Dubai World Cup, there is a bigger performance in him.

Surfer has gained a late entry and suffered a similarly wide trip when third, just behind Sanshaawes, in the third round of the Maktoum Challenge. He is a horse that has suffered notably with bad draws throughout his racing career in Dubai and whilst he may just lack a bit of class compared to some of these, he will at least give it his best shot.

The Hong Kong challenge is strong, not just in the World Cup but throughout the whole card, and there doesn’t look a great deal between Military Attack and Akeed Mofeed. The latter won the 2013 Hong Kong Cup and had Military Attack back in fourth but Military Attack comfortably emerged on top when the pair met in this year's running of the Hong Kong Cup. Both seem best at this sort of trip and obviously command plenty of respect, acknowledging the surface will be something of an unknown.

Sir Michael Stoute remains the only British trainer to have won the Dubai World Cup and he will saddle Hillstar this year, a potential improver after just the 8 career starts to date. His sole victory last year came at the expense of Battle Of Marengo in the King Edward VII Stakes at Royal Ascot, and he was far from disgraced subsequently, not beaten far by the likes of Novellist, Declaration Of War and Farhh. Those runs did expose his limitations to a degree, and he could probably do with further ideally, so he will need to improve if he is to win this.

Britain will also be represented in the form of Mukhadram who was another to finish behind Farhh when last seen. His placed efforts behind Al Kazeem earlier last season were particularly good runs and a positive aspect to his chance is that he may get his own way out in front. That tactical element will need to be in his favour as others can boast stronger form claims, but he is certainly no forlorn hope.

Japan gained an emotional success in the race back in 2011 with Victoire Pisa and they are doubly-represented this time with Belshazzar and Hokko Tarumae. The former won the Japan Cup Dirt last year and comes into the race on the back of a creditable third over 1m in the February Stakes. Arguably his very best form is over nine furlongs but he has seemed to stay as far as 11 furlongs in the past so the trip shouldn’t be an issue.

It certainly won’t be a problem for Hokko Tarumae who hasn’t finished out of the first 3 since his debut. He was behind Belshazzar in the aforementioned Japan Cup Dirt but reversed form last time in the February Stakes, and there is clearly very little between the pair, Hokko Tarumae's consistency perhaps just edging it.

I suppose America can claim a runner of sorts, Ron The Greek now based in Saudi Arabia having spent most of his racing career stateside. His final start for Bill Mott saw him hammer Kentucky Derby-aspirant Palace Malice and he wasn’t far off the likes of Game On Dude and Fort Larned prior to that. He has won under his new name of Wattani (but will race as Ron The Greek) in Saudi Arabia and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him go well.

To sum up, this looks a race in which to take a couple of the outsiders against what looks a vulnerable favourite. Sanshaawes and African Story fit the bill nicely, and can hopefully give us a run for our money.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Sanshaawes win and place

Back African Story win and place

 

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By Keith Melrose -- published 26th March 2014

In picking out a couple to have onside in the Grand National, Keith Melrose calls on another of Liverpool's gifts to the world.

Teaforthree has been pushed front and centre for the 2014 National, made into a John Lennon when in reality he’s more of a George Harrison: brilliant in spurts and dependable when he isn’t, but probably not the standout performer in the exalted company he keeps.

Buried about halfway through ‘Let It Be’, the last of The Beatles’ 13 studio albums, there’s tucked away a 40-second excerpt from a Liverpudlian folk song ‘Maggie Mae’, sung in what you might call the native tongue. It’s no ‘Eleanor Rigby’, but it does offer a neat little parable: an unexpected reminder that The Beatles, demi-gods of pop music and reputed forebears of just about all that has followed, were ultimately just four lads from Liverpool.

It’s a lesson that is well worth carrying into another Liverpool icon, the Grand National, and not simply because of this iconic image. Amid all the romanticism and fable that surrounds the race, the great majority of its character is just that of any long-distance handicap chase.

Perhaps never more so. Much has been made of the latest alterations to the course, which are either regrettably necessary or downright unwelcome depending on which half of the 20th Century you ought to have been born in. It’s still too soon to be certain, but early indications align with the intuition that says extra give in the new plastic frames makes for an easier jumping test.

Jumping is important in most handicap chases: it’s just the case that a horse attacking the Aintree spruce fences is a more thrilling spectacle than one doing the same over conventional birch. A fair case in point would be Teaforthree, last year’s Grand National third. Teaforthree is a bold jumper at the best of times, as he showed when a pleasing second at Ascot in February, but he looked as close to a natural as you’re likely to see over these fences last year.

That Ascot run, however encouraging, provides some of the temperance for Teaforthree. He’d rightly been among the market leaders before that race, but for showing us little besides his wellbeing (he was already top on Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings) his price virtually halved. He’s been pushed front and centre for the 2014 National, made into a John Lennon when in reality he’s more of a George Harrison: brilliant in spurts and dependable when he isn’t, but probably not the standout performer in the exalted company he keeps. The fact Teaforthree was only eighth in a substandard Gold Cup gently hardens this view.



***

It’s said by some that the ‘story horse’ always wins the National. Don’t believe it, least of all if anything other than Tidal Bay comes home first this year. He is the aging rock star of this group: as talented as Paul; as wacky as Ringo; as truculent as John. There would be no more popular winner.

The truth is that most horses come with a ‘story’, hence the old wives’ tale. The other remaining Graham Wylie horse in the race, Prince de Beauchene, would make for one of the more romantic ones.

After moving to Willie Mullins in the summer of 2011, Prince de Beauchene had come into Grand National favouritism by the time injury ruled him out of the 2012 renewal a week before the race. In 2013, he was second-favourite behind On His Own less than a fortnight prior to the National. Once again, a hip injury forced his withdrawal.

Fewer risks have been taken this time. In both 2012 and 2013, Prince de Beauchene had paraded in the Bobbyjo Chase, a recognised National trial, before his ill-fated Aintree bids. This year at a more obscure stage, the Kinloch Brae Chase, was chosen. There Prince de Beauchene finished fourth but ran an eye-catching race, not having the pace to cope with the likes of Texas Jack and Last Instalment over two and a half miles but ultimately not beaten far under considerate handling from Ruby Walsh.

As a result of his more understated prep, Prince de Beauchene has been far less prominent in the ante-post market than in either of the last two years. Or he had been. He’s come for money in recent days, a far more upbeat bulletin at this late stage compared with 2012 or 2013. Prince de Beauchene has always jumped like one who’ll relish the National fences; if this is to be his year, then it won’t be before time.

***

Recommendation number two comes from another significant Grand National trial: the Cheltenham handicap. Last year was the first time since 2008 that none of the first four home had last run at the Festival. Don’t Push It had pulled up in the Pertemps Final before winning in 2010 and it was in that race that Pineau de Re really caught the eye recently. He finished third, beaten just a nose and a neck in a typically red-hot handicap and you feel in a stride or two more he’d have won. He wouldn’t still be 20/1 for the National if he had.

We have no reason to believe that Pineau de Re is an inferior chaser, or that he won’t stay: his Ulster National win last year certainly acts against the latter, while an easy win at Exeter immediately prior to Cheltenham acts against the former.

A relatively early fall in December's Becher doesn't do Pineau de Re justice either: he'd jumped six of the first seven sure-footedly and his exit at the eighth appeared to owe more to an awkward landing than poor technique.

The drawback with Pineau de Re, the reason his strike-rate remains so ordinary for a very useful performer, is that he can flatter to deceive off the bridle. Plenty of shirkers and non-stayers have been coaxed into the places in the National before, some getting within sight of the elbow before they're let down, only to let down, but if it really concerns you there's always the option of an in-running trade on Betfair. For now you should play him / Then you can lay him / When he's 6/4.

***

The Grand National could claim to be bigger than Jesus (around 20 million Britons are expected to bet on the race; fewer than 5 million will attend church the next day) and sadly it has certainly proved beyond God. Godsmejudge was originally the lead selection, but he'll now reportedly miss the race in favour of a return to Ayr to defend his Scottish National. Of those that remain, Prince de Beauchene and Pineau de Re look the likeliest, both well enough handicapped and appeal as the type of horses that will take to Aintree's unique demands. Both of those factors are ensured where Teaforthree is concerned, though it's been factored into his price already.

Recommendations:

Back Prince de Beauchene and Pineau de Re in the Grand National

 

By Simon Rowlands -- published 18th April 2014

Simon Rowlands has found five horses that impressed on the clock at Newmarket's Craven meeting.

The contrast in times on the first and second days of this year’s Craven Meeting needs addressing up front. They were slower on the Wednesday than at the beginning of Thursday, and much slower than by the end of Thursday.

This was in no small part down to the wind – either across or against the runners on day one, according to who you believe, and behind them on day two – but even after allowing for that there did not seem to be any “good to firm” in Wednesday’s ground.

“Good to firm” seemed a great deal more plausible by the end of Thursday, and why not? Despite what seems to be implied by some within the industry, “f***” should not be considered a rude word in a going description these days.

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In sectional terms, there was not a great deal to report on Wednesday: the first race was steadily-run while mark-ups for winners of other races were small. But overall race times were more revealing. In particular, that of True Story, in winning the listed Feilden Stakes by 7 lengths and 6, leaps off the page.

The clearly smart winner ran his race highly efficiently (37.3s last 3f, 99.7% finishing speed compared to average race speed), and those who tried to match strides with him paid late on. The margins might have been exaggerated slightly (runner-up Obliterator was eased for good measure) but the time is inescapably good, and it suggests True Story is a very serious Derby candidate. His breeding, and the way he raced here, suggest that he will be better still at longer distances.

Magnus Maximus (35.95s, 101.8%), Shifting Power (36.6s, 101.6%) and Danzeno (35.0s, 104.6%) all put up useful performances on the clock, though the second-named could have been expected to do even better. This does not look a good renewal of the Free Handicap.

More impressive, in the context of its being his debut, was Mind of Madness, who was sensibly kept just off the pace before pouncing with a 35.05s sectional (104.5%) to land the two-year-old contest. Sandiva got the job done in workmanlike style in the G3 Nell Gwyn but got a better run through than some and failed to impress especially on the clock (36.65s, 101.6%), and nor did any of her rivals with the Classics in mind.

Munjaz came home close to par in the 10f maiden (39.0s, 99.4%) but should still build plenty on this bare form (and so should some of his rivals, despite the sectionals being unremarkable).

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Two Thousand Guineas hope Kingman put up an excellent time at Newbury last weekend (sadly, there were no sectionals to add further weight to the impressions made), and Toormore did something similar in the G3 Craven Stakes this Thursday. We can at least figure out from Toormore’s hand-timed last 3f (35.2s, 101.6%) that he ran close to par and that none of his rivals was unlucky by that measure.

Beating Kingman may prove a whole different ball game, but time analysis certainly speaks well of Toormore, and those who point to the proximity of the unfancied The Grey Gatsby to crab the form are missing the point.

Time analysis also likes the win of Hamza in the G3 Abernant Stakes, but it likes the ride given the gelding by Jamie Spencer even more. Spencer got it spot on with a first half of about 35.85s and a second half of 34.05s (102.6%). By contrast, third-placed Aljamaaheer, partnered by Paul Hanagan, ran about 36.6s and 33.4s (104.8%), which is less efficient and strongly implies the horse should have won (backing up visual impressions). The sprint division in Britain is seldom strong, and Aljamaaheer can make a decent impact in it this season.

Sectionals have Spirit of Xian (34.3s, 106.1%) a bit better than the bare result in the opener, while Lacing (34.45s, 106.5%) got the joint-biggest mark-up back in eighth and should be a different proposition next time. Basem (34.7s, 109.0%) can be rated a good few lengths better than the bare result in the Wood Ditton, for which the pace and overall time were modest.

Sudden Wonder (36.1s, 103.0%) and Observational (36.2s, 102.7%) came clear in the Tattersalls Millions Trophy and get upgraded more than their rivals. Sectionals show Mull of Killough (35.75s, 101.1%) slightly got first run on French Navy (35.25s, 102.7%), the former having a few lengths to spare over the latter when kicked on by Adam Kirby 3f out.

Camerawork meant it was not possible to get individual sectionals for the penultimate race, but it was well worth hanging around for the finale. This is traditionally a very strong handicap, and this year’s contest promises to follow suit.

Cloudscape’s overall time was merely respectable, but he came home notably quickly (34.75s, 106.9%) for course and distance and looks quite a bit better than the result. Second and third, Windshear (35.0s, 106.4%) and Volume (35.25s, 105.8%), emerge from the race by no means badly as well. It will be a surprise if this race does not produce plenty of winners.

To follow:

True Story, Lacing, Aljamaaheer, Cloudscape, Windshear

 

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By TV Focus -- published 18th April 2014

TV Focus: Saturday April 19

Kempton

2.20 1 pt 1 Ayaar

It could be that Luca Cumani has bigger plans for Ayaar than a 0-105 on the all-weather in mid-April, but the colt has so much going for him that it’s still worth taking the chance that he’s ready to do himself full justice first time up. Bought from Mick Channon for 105,000 gns last autumn, Ayaar fought an unequal battle against the handicapper for much of his 3-y-o campaign, but he got his head in front at Newmarket on his final outing and appeals as the sort to go on again for his new yard in 2014

2.55 1 pt 7 Ribbons

Most punters will be drawn to one of the two ‘z’s’ in this, either Zibelina or Zurigha, but whilst there isn’t necessarily anything wrong with the claims of either we feel that Ribbons could offer better value. Her form as yet doesn’t match up to the likely market leaders, but there’s a strong chance she’ll go on again this season. After all, she progressed in leaps and bounds in winning the first four starts of her career and wasn’t seen to best advantage when stepped up to listed company for the first time on her final outing as a three-year-old. She’s proven on polytrack, having made a successful debut on the surface, and Ribbons will surely make a better fist of this second attempt at listed company.

3.30 2pts 10 Frasers Hill

There are plenty of occasions when lightly-raced ones from top yards in handicaps are overbet and, if truth be told, opposing such sorts over a period of time is ideally the way to go, but sometimes they just have to be backed. Frasers Hill is one such example, a thrice-raced five-year-old from Roger Varian’s stable who has potentially got in very lightly for his handicap debut. Yes, he’s evidently very brittle to have been seen so infrequently, but first time out is invariably the best time to catch such horses and the simple fact that connections have persevered with him is surely a recommendation in itself. He went as if amiss last time out but prior to that had narrowly failed to concede 15 lb to Queensbury Rules (now rated 109 by Timeform) in a maiden over this C&D. Plenty of these have little or no scope from a handicapping perspective, whereas Frasers Hill could well have a fair bit in hand from an opening BHA mark of 85.

Haydock

2.05 1 pt 11 Kians Delight

This has the look of an afterthought for many of the eleven runners, whereas Kian’s Delight is fresh after returning from six months off at Aintree a couple of weeks ago. He never really managed to challenge behind Duke of Lucca that day, hindered by an early error, but displayed plenty of stamina in sticking to his task and remains unexposed as a staying chaser. The Peter Bowen yard has predictably clicked into gear over the last few weeks and, though Kian’s Delight is 4 lb out of the weights here, his proven ability under fast conditions counts for plenty, as does the simple fact that he’s a lot more likely to run his race than a lot of these.

2.40 0.5 pt ew 4 Mojolika

There are a whole host of last-time-out winners in this and there’s little doubt it’s a strongly-contested affair for the time of the season, stakes probably best kept to a minimum. For various reasons, Mojolika hasn’t really won the races he should over hurdles so far and it’s true to say he did seem to be outbattled when runner-up to Yorkist at Newcastle on his most recent outing, but there are still reasons for thinking he’s interesting in this. Firstly, whilst he does go in the mud, his career record taken as a whole suggests strongly that less testing conditions suit ideally and, though his best efforts to date have been achieved around the minimum trip, he was a stayer on the Flat so this longer distance should suit. In short, it won’t be at all surprising if these conditions bring about a career best from him.

3.15 1 pt 3 King Massini

Evan Williams turned out the highly progressive Buywise to land a good prize at Cheltenham earlier this week, and his King Massini has good claims of bagging another sizeable pot in this. In many ways, King Massini is similar to Buywise in that he’s proved to be a much better chaser than hurdler and didn’t get a chance to show what he could do at the Cheltenham Festival, in his case coming down at the sixth in the handicap won by Holywell. He’s also still fresh considering the time of season, the Cheltenham race being only his fifth of the campaign, and it seems likely that King Massini hasn’t yet shown all he can over fences, essentially a slick jumper and seemingly at least as effective on goodish ground as he is when the mud is flying. The fact that he usually races close up is also a bonus, patient tactics often a disadvantage at this track when conditions ride on the quick side.

 

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By Simon Rowlands -- published 5th February 2014

Timeform ratings have an international reputation for accuracy and objectivity. Here's how we arrive at them.

A horse's Timeform Master Rating is a measure of the form the horse is considered to be capable of showing currently under its optimum conditions (to which reference can be found in its Timeform commentary) and is under continuous review.

Timeform maintains a running handicap for all racing in Britain and Ireland (jumps as well as Flat), the USA and Canada, UAE, most of Australia and New Zealand, and much of the racing in France and other major European countries. In addition, the Racehorses annuals include articles and comprehensive ratings on the top racing in Germany, Italy, Scandinavia, Japan and Hong Kong.

For all racing in Britain, Ireland, the USA and Canada, Timeform receives the official result of the race on its database shortly after the event. A computerised assessment of the 'difference at the weights' is made, based on the distance of the race, the time the race takes to be run, the surface being raced on, the weight carried by the participants and their age, the margins separating the runners and a few other factors.

The poundage allowance for margin beaten will vary according to the distance of the race as well as the time the race takes to be run. A five-furlong race run in a fast time (e.g. 55 sec or less) will result in a poundage allowance of over 4 per length. For two mile races on the Flat the allowance will usually be just over 1, while a race like the Grand National, run over nearly four and a half miles and jumps, will prompt an allowance significantly less than 1.

In addition, different surfaces may need different allowances. Dirt surfaces in North America string horses out more than do turf or synthetic surfaces, and that needs to be reflected in the allowance for margin beaten.

Effectively, these various factors establish, in terms of pounds, how much better or worse a horse's performance is than others' in the race and a series of complex algorithms calculate an initial guide to the ratings value of the performance. Thereafter it is the handicapper's job to confirm the precise level of this form in the context of a universal handicap, theoretically including all horses that have run or will ever run.

The handicapper will also review past assessments of form and individual horses in the light of all new results and information. This is a continuous process, and as a result Timeform ratings for individual horses may alter even when the horse concerned hasn't actually run recently but the form of other horses it ties in with looks stronger or weaker than before.

A horse's Timeform Master Rating is a measure of the form the horse is considered to be capable of showing currently under its optimum conditions (to which reference can be found in its Timeform commentary) and is under continuous review. This is all done in order to give the Timeform customer the most up-to-date assessment possible.

There are two extremes of races for the handicapper to assess: those in which nothing is known about the horses beforehand; and those in which a great deal is known.

Handicapping the former might seem an impossible task, but it is not. For a start, we don't really know "nothing" about the horses at all. We will know who trains the individual horses, what the horses' pedigrees are and, in most cases, what level of form the race usually produces. We also have the time the race took to be run compared to other races on the card.

All of these facts, and some others, can be expressed statistically and used as the basis for any initial figures. As a result, a relatively accurate post-race assessment can usually be made, rather than a stab in the dark.

By their nature, however, these ratings tend to be a starting point and are more fluid than those for races involving fully exposed horses. When dealing with the latter, the handicapper has a wealth of information, form lines and opinion on which to base assessments.

Nonetheless, a few rules of thumb still apply. For instance, all other things being equal, winners of handicaps demonstrate empirically by virtue of having actually won that they were better than the handicap mark off which they were asked to race.

There are, of course, exceptions – weak form, uncompetitive races, lucky winners, races in which most of the horses were out of the handicap, and so on – but exceptions are exactly what they are. A horse winning off a mark of, say, 100 is nearly always showing that it is better, to some degree or other, than a typical 100-rated horse.

This often applies to an extent to other horses who finish close up, too. That doesn't mean, however, that horses further back automatically have their ratings reduced. As all punters know, there can be many reasons for a horse to be excusably below form. This is an area where the expertise of Timeform’s handicappers, as well as that of its reporters and comment writers, really comes to the fore. However, some 'pulling down' of horses' ratings is necessary in general to offset the raising of those horses which have run well.

In Britain, Timeform ratings and those published by the British Horseracing Authority (which determine the weights actually carried) are not necessarily on the same level, let alone the same for individual horses. This has come about in part as a result of the two organisations having come into existence at different times.

Timeform ratings had been around for nearly fifty years by the time the BHB (the predecessor of the BHA) was established in 1993. Great care has always been taken to keep the level of Timeform ratings consistent from one season to the next (once due allowance has been made for extraneous factors), so that comparisons can meaningfully be made between different generations also. That has helped to earn Timeform ratings a long-held reputation as the definitive expression of a horse's merit historically and throughout the world.

 

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By Jamie Lynch -- published 12th May 2014

Chief Correspondent Jamie Lynch fills you in on the key details from his latest trip where he got to meet the Master of Ballydoyle, Aidan O'Brien, trainer of current Derby favourite Australia.

'I remember my phone started ringing and the lads looking at all the information said 'did you see Australia's times this morning?' - he did four 11-second furlongs, one after the other, and he'd be pulling up and he'd be yawning.'

The same, but different. The force of nature that is the wound-up, worked-up racehorse on the track, full of intensity and nervous energy, is the same power but a different animal in his home environment. That goes for Aidan O'Brien, too. Meeting him at Ballydoyle, on a morning for the press, O'Brien is the same pseudo-caricatured O'Brien you see and hear in interviews, yet he's also different; more at ease, more rounded, more human even. The language is the same, but the tone is different. The spiel is the same, but the delivery is different. And it's only by being in his presence, on his territory, that you start to appreciate that he truly means and truly believes what he says.

O'Brien can sometimes be an easy target. Who amongst us hasn't, at some point or another, mimicked the copybook O'Brien post-race interview, whether it's the July Cup hyperbole or the well-honed line in undeserving self-blame. But mockery assumes ignorance, when O'Brien is all too aware of how he comes across, going as far as joking about it, which can only be done with a underlying confidence in your ability to do your job, the sort of confidence that comes from well over 200 Group 1 wins worldwide amongst all that Ballydoyle has achieved, despite what he says - 'I don't think I've really achieved that much.'

It's only on the drive there that you really get it; the perspective of what they're achieving and the appreciation for how they're doing it. Here we are in rural Ireland, and tucked away in amongst the stereotypical scene of fields and farms is a powerbase from which virtually every move reverberates around the thoroughbred world. It's a racing stable like any other in respect of its aims, but the scale, standards, stock and successes make it remarkable. The same, but different.

Australia is the same, but different. The script is the same as we've heard from O'Brien in the past, but it's with conviction that he promises us that this colt is different. 'The reality is we've never had a horse like this,' he says, recounting a tale from some of his early work: 'I remember my phone started ringing and the lads looking at all the information said 'did you see Australia's times this morning?' - he did four 11-second furlongs, one after the other, and he'd be pulling up and he'd be yawning.'

Aidan O'Brien hailing a wonderhorse from his homework engenders a strong sense of déjà vu, as he admits himself with a knowing smile, and one fact to make you wonder about this wonderhorse is that he's been beaten twice already, including in the Guineas, though put in context, fleshed out by O'Brien, it was a big performance by Australia at Newmarket.

'The first thing is that it was a lot better race than Camelot's Guineas. It was a strongly-run race and he was cruising along. Joseph knew at halfway that the other side were in front, so he had to make his move when he did.'

Then there was what went on before, for Australia and the string in general. 'It's been a bit of a struggle; it just hasn't been as straightforward this year. Six weeks before the Guineas, Australia got a cough. As soon as Australia stopped, everything else started, and it went right through the place. The easy thing to have done was to shut down and not race, but if we did that we'd never have a chance at the classics, which are vital to us.

'We had to train more gently, more cautiously and just try to push through it, but keep them at a pitch. We know where we want to get to, but the road has been longer this season, with a few stop-offs, and we couldn't lean on them as we otherwise might.'

The adversities of the run of the race, and his build-up in line with the whole Ballydoyle team, put an altogether better spin on Australia's effort in the Guineas, where his speed was the feature, not really a case of like father like son: 'His stride is Galileo's, but for a Galileo to be doing what he's done and showing the speed he has - that's what makes him different.' The same, but different.

Would Australia's raw power and speed leave any niggling doubts in O'Brien's mind about him staying the Derby distance? 'Put it this way, I'd rather him show the speed than not show it. He's bred to stay the trip real well. I'd be surprised if he didn't stay, wouldn't you? Unless I make a total hash of it.'

With good reason, Australia's reversal at Newmarket hasn't dented faith or confidence in the horse. 'What makes everybody better is failure, right?' You got the feeling that O'Brien was referring as much to himself as Australia in that philisophical statement, but he was talking outright about Geoffrey Chaucer when he said: 'You're happy to get beat if you learn something, but we learned nothing there.'

He'll still go to Epsom, as will Chester winners Orchestra and Kingfisher, but Australia is the one. He's something different, mark his words.