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the question of stats

Discussion in 'Bristol City' started by johngalleyfan2, Oct 28, 2011.

  1. johngalleyfan2

    johngalleyfan2 Well-Known Member

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    At this time of the season they pretty much mean nothing, you need to get around game 18 to start seeing a trend statisically, and I dont just mean for BCFC or the gas as individuals, but for the division................

    Past 4 seasons p18 games PNE bottom relegated
    peterboro bottom relegated
    Charlton were in the bottom 3, but points were tight relegated -2
    Colchester likewise bottom 5, but points tight relegated -2

    so in the next 6 games City need to get enough points to get 6 or more teams off bottom or have the sword of Damocles hanging over !!!



    please also bear in mind other factors we could win 4 of the next 5 go to 18 points, and technically be 15th in the table...but, thats BUT..should Reading ,burnley,barnsley,florest and millwall all were to win 2 we would be 21st!!

    likewise teams in current bottom ten playing each other have massive influences on the positions...eg the game with Barnsley lose, the 9 points dif becomes 12, thats 4 more wins and a dr w more than them to get above them...
    draws are a point, great if against the top ten or so, against the bottom 10 at the mo a disaster.

    we dont need 1.2 or 1.75 we need 2.25 to 2.5pts over the next 7 or 8 games .....or the game could be up...........
     
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  2. Premiershiporbust....

    Premiershiporbust.... Active Member

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    Lies, damn lies and statistics....

    Mean nothing....
     
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  3. Bluebaldee

    Bluebaldee Total Git

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    Indeed. The only statistics that matter are those that are published in May 2012.
     
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  4. johngalleyfan2

    johngalleyfan2 Well-Known Member

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    13 Leic City .... 13 19 14 19
    14 Birm City .... 10 17 12 21
    15 Reading ..... 13 17 14 18
    16 Ports ........ 13 15 14 15
    17 Burnley ..... 12 15 14 18
    18 Barnsley .... 13 15 14 15
    19 Florest ...... 13 14 14 14
    20 Millwall .......13 12 14 15
    21 Cov City .....13 11 14 12
    22 Watford .... 13 10 14 13
    23 Don Rovers.. 13 8 .14 9
    24 Bris City ..... 13 6 .14 9
     
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  5. johngalleyfan2

    johngalleyfan2 Well-Known Member

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    Every result becomes a statistic, YOU YOURSELF prem are a statisic so does that mean you are a lie??
    Historically in the big picture a team in the bottom 5 after 18 games has nearly always finished 24th.
    SO expand this, if you are not in the bottom 5 it means 22nd and 23rd are the likely spots to avoid......2 positions not 3!
     
    #5
  6. Premiershiporbust....

    Premiershiporbust.... Active Member

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    What I'm saying is that you can't plan our season based on stats - it just doesn't work that way....
     
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  7. pirate49

    pirate49 Well-Known Member
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    You can only talk in terms of probabilities, possibilities and maybes and mightbes and perhaps!!
     
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  8. johngalleyfan2

    johngalleyfan2 Well-Known Member

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    49 you are perhaps right, maybe there is a possibility that probably we might statiscally avoid disaster and then we would be talking !

    Prem,
    everyone looks at things differently, some look at all things although different in the same light! demographically and statisically what has been before often shows what might be ahead. I am not saying stats are the be all or end all..but they certainly work most of the time.

    Should you wish to make some money on the team that will finish 24th, after game 18 back all 5 teams at the bottom..chances are you will be on a winner, dont know what the odds might be of course as you would be placing 5 bets so would need 6/1 to make a profit. I am not too worried about my auto promo bets @ 10/1 10/1 12/1 14/1 as 2 teams currently doing well, Brum playing catch up the other in dissaray but up there in top 12
     
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  9. johngalleyfan2

    johngalleyfan2 Well-Known Member

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    Due to the results tonight it seems that BCFC will still be in the bottom 3 after game 18, I would hate to have to back them to finish bottom...........

    at this early conjecture I would say a shilling or 2 on COV and Donny might be worth a punt!!!!!
     
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