It’s ****ing confusing. I suspect that it will be senior Russian military figures who do for Putin, when they get the guts. They are being humiliated at the moment. Even from here you can see the logistics is completely ****ed. I mentioned on here, perhaps not this thread, some time ago that I’m reading a lot of history about that part of the world, and nationalism has ****ed everything up for everybody.
Funny I’m bored, fat from eating pizza and recovering from my night out yesterday so watching random **** on Facebook/YouTube and one talked about how Putin is acting like a complete dictator and his generals are being belittled live on TV (per the security meeting they showed). It would take a brave general to stick his head above the parapet and have a pop. I’m not so sure about the being humiliated bit though……of course there will be logistical problems and yes, they are finding resistance far greater than they thought…..however with their strength in numbers they are gaining ground..and once they do the humanitarian thing and let all civilians leave the city (cynical me thinks the reasons aren’t all humanitarian), then in his mind all that remain are legitimate fighters and he can destroy the cities at his will. Always happy to be corrected if I’m not seeing it right though.
He can do that because he has a massive advantage in ordnance. But they also have a 40km column of vehicles stuck north of Kyiv, in a piece of military tactics that no one who knows anything about this stuff (and I know nothing about it) can understand. I’m sure they thought that this would be a walkover and that they would be welcomed by a lot of the population. But even the Russian speakers are fighting back. They can raze the cities to the ground and take the whole country. But it will take 500,000 men and a massive effort to feed and support the population to keep it. No chance. Hopefully a few generals, who might actually be patriots rather than lunatic nationalists like Putin, will call time on him. Probably wishful thinking on my part.
I'm a bit confused at some of the Russian tactics, if you can believe what some of the news agencies are reporting, and also about the Ukranian response. Allegedly, there's a nigh on 40 mile traffic jam of Russian military vehicles stuck on the road to Kiev. They're struggling to cross the river, but they are also having problems with fuel supply. Now, I'm only theorising here, but that looks like a complete sitting duck to me, but the Ukranians are only taking out a few vehicles at a time. Done properly, they can block any advance on Kiev by causing total carnage at strategic positions along the route, making the road impassable at bottlenecks - this also would prevent any Russian retreat. I don't know if the Ukranians are waiting on some heavy weaponry coming in from EU/NATO, but if the Russians don't move into Kiev pretty soon this could turn into a massacre of their forces - then what does Putin do, or his generals?
I'm totally lost at what they are trying to acheive with this convoy - it's tactics from WW2 not modern warfare
Could it possibly be propaganda from our side ? I mean we are only hearing one side of the story (the war reporting I mean).
US war analyst says it’s 20th Century tactics and equipment is sub standard. Tonight Putin has hired 1000 mercenaries to help out…. That tells its own story. There are also reports of many Russian loses in equipment and soldiers. Not going well for Putin.
I just think that there are way too many sources of information, including Al Jazeera, and data for propaganda to work here. If you were only seeing these images for a couple of sources perhaps, but they are everywhere. The stuff which might be propaganda, because it’s less widely reported, are alleged interceptions of Russian military radio comms, with soldiers in tears, screaming abuse at each other and, in a couple of instances, firing on each other. Allegedly.
But as you say it just doesn’t make sense. I really can’t see Russia just suddenly giving up, packing their bags and buggering off home….it’s gone way too far for that and there has to be some kind of endgame. it’s all just a complete clusterfuck
But being the devils advocate (I have to emphasise that for fear of being labelled a supporter of Putin), aren’t all these sources of information from “our” side, which of course is the vast majority of the world. ? Always good to discuss and debate these things with people like yourself and Steels…..helps me get a better understanding and sometimes change my views.
I'm assuming there's some logistics issues in getting this stuff to them, also the fighters the EU have promised (you need a safe airfield, and Russian aircraft own the skies at the moment)
I know I keep banging on about it but I think the Conflicted podcast would be right up your street mate.
You going to drive a plane from Germany to Ukraine? How many lorries do you think it takes to transport the amount of munitions and weaponry that is needed. They need airfields and ports....
I edited my post to include Al Jazeera, because it’s on there too, I looked it up to make sure, anticipating your response! I don’t think they would be classed as ‘our’ side, although I do think in many areas (but not all) they are decent journalists. As Steels, who clearly does know his military stuff, has said, this column of vehicles is a completely weird bit of military tactics. We forget that Russia has been a dictatorship for 22 years now - it probably didn’t feel like it until the first stitch up of elections, but they now have all the bad habits of dictatorships - such as not ever wanting to give the dictator bad news and learning to actually believe the lies. But Putin still has a scary amount of weaponry at his disposal.
Yeah you’re probably right and that does make sense…..maybe I’m looking at it too deeply and it really is a matter of the Generals not wanting to give the dictator bad news and blowing smoke up his arse to curry favour. Yeah saw you added the Al-Jazeera bit…..haven’t really been watching too much of that but will do more now that RT has gone off air. Always found their reports pretty good and factual.
I’ll try and make time for it. I have so many things I want to catch up on and try to understand, not just to do with this thread (in fact very little to do with this thread) that sometimes I don’t know where to start. That stuff about Oprah banning Tolstoy is terrifying in the level of ignorance, spite and stupidity it demonstrates.
Really mate, the podcast is so good. Steels told me about it ages ago and I had to make time…..once I did I was hooked. Changed my mind completely on the Yemeni conflict. I think the Oprah/Tolstoy thing was a wind up to be honest…..and gullible me fell for it….but remember America is the country that coined the term “freedom fries” and burnt Dixie Chicks records, so wouldn’t put anything past them.
