On Saturday we have the Group 1 July Cup over 6 furlongs at Newmarket, and whilst unlikely to have a real superstar in the field it looks an interesting renewal! Here are the best odds available* Delegator 7/2* Bated Breath 7/1* Elzaam 7/1* Star Witness 7/1* Dream Ahead 12/1* Zoffany 12/1* Monsieur Chevalier 16/1 Dalghar 16/1* Genki 20/1* War Artist 20/1* Regal Parade 25/1* Amico Fritz 33/1 Libranno 33/1* Hitchens 33/1* Swiss Diva 33/1* Oracle 50/1* Jimmy Styles 66/1* Winker Watson 66/1* Royal Rock 66/1* Il start with the favourite Delegator, he has usually run over a mile throughout his career, and whilst being a pretty good miler, he was never able to get his head infront in the big races. So this season they've decided to try him at sprint trips, he ran well when winning the G2 Duke of York stakes, and did impress, but he is going to have to find a good bit of improvement to win here. He beat Regal Parade half a lengh, so you would imagine he will have to beat Regal Parade a good bit further here to stand a chance. If I'm honest I just don't like Delagator, and think throughout his career he has been overrated in the majority of races he has contested, because he got close to Sea The Stars in the Guineas.* On his comeback last season he won a listed race by a neck, and hype went into overdrive, and he was sent off a warm 6/4 favourite for the challenge stakes on champions day, were he finished a dissapointing 4th. I can see history repeating itself here, punters will back him on Saturday, and I believe he will let them down again.* Elzaam looks like a good sprinter, and he has shown plenty of ability this season winning a listed race by 6l from Cape To Rio, and then backing up that form when finishing 4th in the Golden Jubilee only beaten 2l, but he will have to reverse form with the 2nd and 3rd from Ascot, Monsieur Chevalier and Star Witness. On the plus side he's still relatively unexposed in these sort of sprints, and at only 3 he should still be progressing, so I'd fancy him to go close.* Bated Breath is another who ran well at Ascot in the Golden Jubilee, finishing 5th, though I don't see alot in his form to suggest he can improve on that performance, won a class 2 and a listed race before that well, but not in the manner you would expect from a potential G1 winner. Last season he was well beat in a couple of listed contests, so maybe he was flattered a little at Ascot with the soft conditions* The Aussie radar Star Witness is a horse I was impressed with on both occasions at Royal Ascot. In the King's Stands on the Tuesday he took a knock out of the stalls, and lost abit of ground, yet he was still able to get up for 2nd close home, showing his class. In the Golden Jubilee he took a couple of lengths out of the field at the furlong pole with a very impressive turn of foot, but he didn't quite get home in the soft conditions, and was mugged late on, and could only manage 3rd. I think Star Witness ran with great credit on both occasions at Royal Ascot, and had valid excuses for defeat, lost ground at the start on the Tuesday, and didn't stay on the soft ground on the Saturday. This is a horse who is used to running in Australian conditions, so the ground on the Saturday would not have been ideal. I believe he would have pissed the Golden Jubilee on good to firm, and may have won the King's Stands had he got off to a better start. I think he will be there or there abouts anyways, but if the ground is atleast good to firm, he would take some beating.* Dream Ahead was last seasons joint highest rated 2yo, and that was due to a 9l victory in the Middle park, though the ground was soft that day, and he looks to me like a horse who isn't going to be effective on any going with firm in the description, and that is also a belief shared by connections, so the softer the better. The forecast doesn't look promising though, and I don't believe he will run unless there's plenty of rain, which looks unlikely. If there was alot of rain, there no doubt would be a huge gamble on him, he could even challenge for favouritism. Zoffany won't be running, after running in France yesterday. Monsieur Chevalier would have to be the "form pick" from the Golden Jubilee, though I feel he was flattered due to the soft ground, and just stayed on into 2nd past horse's who were tiring in the mud, had the ground been firmer I dont feel he would have been so close, whilst I know the King's Stand's is only over 5 furlongs, he was only 11th on better ground. If it was soft you could give him a chance, but on anything else, I don't feel he will have the gears required to win a top sprint like this.* It would take me all day to go through the rest, but I dont realy fancy any of the outsiders.* So in conclusion, back Star Witness he is the best sprinter in this field and I believe he will prove it on Saturday, if the ground was soft Dream Ahead would have to be considered, but the forecast looks like it will be Good to firm atleast, so lump on Star Witness at 7/1!* *
I agree with you, Star Witness on Good or faster looks the one to be with. Delegator is the fascinating one, but I do feel that Star Witness has a lovely turn of foot and will possibly be able to show it and stay ahead of the field this time.
Execellent work as usual. I seriously think that the race is hugely dependant upon the ground. I too think that Star Witness likes the firm going. But as I stated before he set foot in the UK, he always looks a good thing beaten. You often think to yourself after a race, "he's the one to on next time." My fear is that he'll again run a cracker, but just fill a place. He's a heart break horse. My big hope was that the UK trip would be the making of him, but so far, nothing has changed. If he puts his best foot forward, he wins. Simple as. And at 7-1, he's fantastic each way value. Despite all that I've just written, he'll be my ew nap of the day in Rons comp. If the weather turns nasty, and it buckets down, I'd be all over Delegator. His superior strength would turn out to be a major advantage. Of the others, I would keep an eye on Elzaam and maybe Regal Parade at huge odds.
If it rains Delegator will surely be pulled again? If it rains then I would say that Mons Chev would be the one
Cyc, they did at Royal Ascot because of the ground, hard to see how they could run him on soft ground if it turned that way.
It's amazing how divergent the thinking can be between different parts of the globe. Here in Oz, if the sky opens for say a 6 furlong sprint, where the pace is going to be hot, we search high and low for 7 and 8 furlong horses who can hopefully finish over the top of the leg weary sprinters. Over the mile in Sydney in the G1 Handicaps, on heavy tracks, it's the 10f horses who shorten up on race day.
my pick is War Artist 20/1 he ran over 5f on his last two starts and i think 5f is too short for him, he has a much better record over 6f's and although still to win in the uk i expect a bold show on sat. Any thoughts on his chances?
If the rain comes and they pull out Delegator then Dream Ahead will be my first choice. I like the look of Elzaam but not sure this is his first choice race
Personally, I feel the sprinters are 'much of a muchness' and that the July Cup is very open. I agree with Dylan that War Artist will go close, but I think that Dream Ahead can take this- given the going is not against him.
War Artist is a nice long shot Dylan. Just had a another look at the Stand where he was certainly doing his best work on the line. A nice run at Maydan as well. He's getting a bit long in the tooth, but seems to going as well as ever. Placed in the race a few years ago, so who knows?
Winker Watson looks interesting. Has been running over the wrong distances then, after a 2 year lay off, comes back with a run over 6f on a stiff track like Newcastle on good to soft going (Prominent, driven and outpaced over 2f out, rallied entering final furlong, never able to challenge) but only 1l behind odds on fav Regal Parade at levels. Yet Regal Parade is 25s and WW is 66/1. His best form is on a sound surface so maybe he is greatly over priced. Possible bet to lay?
I will be leaving this until Saturday morning when the state of the ground is definitely known. If it is soft it will be a watching brief only. Delegator impressed at York but against moderate opposition. They have finally accepted that he does not stay a mile but if there is ‘Soft’ in the going description he will be absent when the stalls open. Elzaam got stuck in the mud at Royal Ascot but I think that he may be a seven-furlong horse and better ground will probably also assist Star Witness who finished ahead of him in the Golden Jubilee. Conversely Dream Ahead needs the heavens to open. If there is ‘Firm’ in the going description they will be laying 20/1 on the Exchanges. The Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville is on 7th August and he might get his ground there if he is good enough (has he trained on?). Regal Parade always runs to the same standard as his opponents; hence he got stuffed when odds-on at Newcastle but may run much better in a Group 1 event. Winker Watson’s odds reflect the fact that there is no evidence available that he has retained any of his two-year-old ability.
War Artist has an exceptional record on good to firm going so i will be backing him if that ground comes up. Rain is forecast wed, thurs and fri and although showers im sure the ground wont be effected too much considerin the heat. But if it does come up soft, im lost, any suggestions apart from dream ahead?
If you watch his run at Newcastle (first run for 2 years) he was 1l behind Regal Parade and having dropped to last place, after disputing lead, he ran on to be closest at finish. Not a bad effort after a 2 year lay off and must have come on for the run. Plus, if the ground is a bit faster, I think his odds in relation to Regal Parade are too long. Taking another line, in that race WW was only 3l behind Genki (winner) and Genki was only 2l behind Star Witness in his previous race. So if you consider that WW ran to around 5l behind Star Witness on going softer than he likes and after a 2 year lay off, 66/1 looks a bit silly to me. Just my opinion, looking for a form line to support a rank outsider.
I also think Star Witness looks a good price at 7/1. I really like the horse and feel it should be his turn after two excellent runs at Ascot. Also Regal Parade ew if it is soft.
Excellent article shergs, I will be backing Star Witness, he has showed real class and talent and is due a big win soon, and I reckon this will be it! He is a too good a horse to not win anything and @ 7/1 is a huge price!
I actually have abit of a soft spot for Winker Watson Ron, I remember thinking he was the next coming of Pegasus back in 2007, he then had an injury setback and missed the Guineas, and when he finally made his 3yo debut in the prix Jean prat, he didn't look like the sane horse, he was then well beaten by Henrythenavigator and Raven's Pass in the Sussex. What a cracking set of battles those 2 had. He is now with Mick Channon, but I just can't see he will be good enough to land a blow, even though I'd like to see him get back to something likehis 2yo days
I agree he shouldn't be good enough for this Shergar but it wouldn't surprise me to see that price come down to 33s.
