At the moment the betting pretty much tells us all we know about the 1000 Guineas. With three or four of the leading contenders going straight to Newmarket without a trial (e.g. current favourite Rizeena) or having only run over in Dubai (e.g. Ihtimal) this is looking wide open. The two trials that have been run so far have told us next to nothing: The renamed “Fred Darling” was wide open on paper and it is difficult to have any great enthusiasm for any of the first three home at Newbury in what looked a perfectly ordinary race on paper. The Prix Imprudence at Maison-Laffittes featured all the fancied French-trained fillies and was run in the usual manner with nothing really learned from the dismal showing of Miss France (erstwhile favourite for Newmarket) and with Francois Doumen’s Xcellence comfortably disposing of Vorda. A decisive victory by any filly in the Nell Gwyn Stakes at Newmarket could see them propelled to the head of the 1000 Guineas market by default.
I'm going to start off with Bracelet @ 13/1 and Amazing Maria @ 14/1 and wait until the day for a saver or 2
1,000 Guineas Preview: Simplicity is over-rated please log in to view this image By Joe Rendall from Timeform -- published 26th April 2014 Joe Rendall adopts a speculative stance when assessing this year's 1,000 Guineas... Amazing Maria's win in the Prestige Stakes at Glorious Goodwood was amongst the most impressive performances put up by a two-year-old filly all season and if sheâs improved over the winter then at odds of 14/1 she has the natural ability to surprise quite a few I think it's fair to say that when discussions as to a suitable bet for next weekend's 1,000 Guineas arose at Timeform HQ this afternoon, more questions were posed than answers. Unlike the colts equivalent, in which Kingman looks a worthy favourite and by far the most likely winner of the race, those at the head of the market for the first fillies' classic of the season either have little value left in their price or significant questions to answer. Possibly not the most encouraging way to start our assessment of the race, but Rizeena heads the market and it is her chance that we will assess first. Trainer Clive Brittain has been notably upbeat during her preparation, reportedly dancing a jig on the gallops after her last piece of work. However, there is a nagging suspicion she lacks the requisite sparkle to send the Newmarket crowd into similar light-footed merriment. For all that she displayed admirable consistency as a two-year-old, for the most part in Pattern company, she had a very busy juvenile campaign. It would not be a huge surprise to see her fail to match the level of progression in her classic season, and given the unexposed profiles of some of her competitors, a current price of around 3/1 she makes very limited appeal. Next comes long-time ante-post favourite Miss France, who finished last season with an impressive victory in the Oh So Sharp Stakes at Newmarket. She'll have no problem with the trip and the course experience that win gave her can only be a plus, but there are still some major doubts. The runner-up that day was soundly beaten next time out in the Rockfel, and although she shaped better than the result suggested on her reappearance in the Prix Impudence, it was hardly an ideal preparation. The other French contender Vorda was similarly impressive on her sole British start last season, but she disappointed over a mile at the Breeders' Cup and failed to see out the seven furlongs at Maison-Lafittes last time with any conviction. That coupled with her pedigree and tendency to travel strongly leaves sufficient doubts over her stamina to look elsewhere. Similar doubts surround Lucky Kristale¸ and although a bare reading of her two-and-a-quarter length defeat of Rizeena in the Duchess of Cambridge stakes would put her in with a chance, Clive Brittain's filly was definitely below par that day. George Margarson's charge has only raced over six furlongs and although she looked to have the physical scope to fill out as a three-year-old, her pedigree suggests she might struggle to see out the Guineas trip. Having done little but discount runners so far it's probably time to put up a selection, and rather unoriginally it comes from Aidan O'Brien's Ballydoyle operation. Whilst Tapestry looks to be right in the thick of it with a weight-adjusted Timeform rating of 124p and she remains an exciting prospect, there is slightly more value in the price of probable second-string Bracelet. It's worth noting that Homecoming Queen triumphed two years ago when the lesser-fancied of the Coolmore contingent, and Bracelet's win in the recent 1,000 Guineas Trial at Leopardstown is all the more impressive when compared to the relative form of O'Brien's string. It's no understatement to say Ballydoyle usually starts the Irish turf season as it means to go on, with a relentless stream of winners and consistently impressive strike-rate. Yet whilst many of O'Brien's early-season runners this year were failing to fire, Bracelet's performance at Leopardstown was extremely impressive. She was the only one of the horses held up to get involved in a moderately run race and was value for more than the winning distance, eventually scoring readily by a length. As you would expect given her connections she has an abundance of class in her pedigree and may well go on to contend the Oaks, but she's sure to come on a huge amount from that run and at odds of around 13/1 she remains capable of significant further improvement and looks a good bet to give Aidan O'Brien his third win in the race. Another who is worth keeping on side, although it might take a slightly larger leap of faith, is Ed Dunlop's Amazing Maria. The fact she hasn't run since August last year is uncomfortable as well as unavoidable, but her trainer issued a very upbeat bulletin at the start of the month and she's reported to have wintered well. If we return to when she was last seen for a moment, her win in the Prestige Stakes at Glorious Goodwood was amongst the most impressive performances put up by a two-year-old filly all season. Not only did the way she travelled suggest a more galloping track would suit, but the timefigure she posted was particularly striking. The manner in which she saw out the seven-furlong trip suggests a mile will be no problem and if she's improved over the winter then at odds of 14/1 she has the natural ability to surprise quite a few. There are several others who merit consideration, the first of which is Ihtimal. She showed a smart level of form during the 2013 turf season, including when third in the Chesham at Royal Ascot, and she's been impressive on her two starts in Meydan. However, the usual questions will linger about her ability to replicate that form back on turf, and current odds do not have quite enough juice in them to merit taking the chance. My Titania has been the subject of significant market support in the last few weeks and on the basis of her win in the Weld Park Stakes she looks bound to improve. This race looks much more up her street than the Oaks as she's not short of speed and it's quite possible that she improves sufficiently to win, but we would be remiss to back her at odds of 9/1 with no top-flight experience, and she is slightly reluctantly left alone. Hopefully we've gone some way to clarifying what is a competitive and mature ante-post market and arrived at a reasonably astute assessment of next Sunday's race. In Bracelet and Amazing Maria we have two selections who still have some value left in their price and have displayed sufficient ability and attitude to suggest they won't be found wanting in what is always a fiercely contested race. If the speculative tone has not been to your liking, expect a far more assured assessment of the 2,000 Guineas which will be appearing in the next week or so; it seems in racing as in life, matters involving the fairer sex are inherently more complicated! Recommendations: Back Bracelet @ 13/1 and Amazing Maria @ 14/1 in the 1,000 Guineas
Rizeena comes directly to the Rowley Mile after a busy but mostly consistent juvenile career, the highlight being victory over Tapestry and Kiyoshi in the Moyglare Stud Stakes; although arguably her best performance was chasing home the ill-fated Criselliam in the Fillies’ Mile. Will her ninth racecourse appearance see her veteran trainer jigging in the winner’s enclosure? Tapestry is bred in the purple and chasing home Rizeena left the impression that her future lies over middle distances but she is no forlorn hope. Albany Stakes winner Kiyoshi appears to have something to find on form with a few of these and possibly something to prove over a mile. Lucky Kristale raced exclusively in sprints with victory over Rizeena in the Duchess Of Cambridge followed by victory over Queen Catrine in what looked an ordinary Lowther Stakes at York. Ihtimal chased home Criselliam and Rizeena in the Fillies’ Mile and she is already a dual Classic winner this term after collecting both the UAE 1000 Guineas and the UAE Oaks by big margins against questionable opposition. The tapeta form may not be reliable on turf but she is at least race fit and has a great win record. The other Godolphin contender Majeyda is difficult to fancy as her best effort to date appears to be chasing home Ihtimal in the May Hill Stakes. Bracelet collected the Leopardstown 1000 Guineas Trial from Balansiya and also boasts race fitness and makes more appeal than Oh So Sharp Stakes winner Miss France, who prevailed in a photo from Lightning Thunder that day but was a huge disappointment on her comeback in the Prix Imprudence, trailing in sixth to Xcellence and Vorda. In her juvenile campaign, Vorda collected the Cheveley Park Stakes from Princess Noor as well as the Prix Robert Papin and Philippe Sogorb’s filly could take the prize back across the Channel if she progresses from her return. Sandiva beat Euro Charline in the Nell Gwyn Stakes and is tough and consistent but the balance of her form leaves her with quite a bit to find if she is to feature. J Wonder beat Al Thakhira and Joyeuse in the Fred Darling but neither of the first two line up and the third ran a strange race that day and there will surely be one or two better fillies going straight to post. I would be delighted to see Clive Brittain doing a Newmarket jig with Rizeena but I am more likely to side with Ihtimal, although the defections of the likes of Amazing Maria, J Wonder, My Titania and Queen Catrine have cramped the odds of the market leaders in what still looks a very open race.
Balansiya, Queen Catrine, My Titania, Amazing Maria and J Wonder all out, what a carve up. And if Oddschecker is anything to go by Bracelet will also be missing.
Lucky Kristale for me in this. The 2yo fillies formline was one of the best and most reliable around last year and Lucky Kristale was extremely impressive when beating Rizeena et al in the Cherry Hinton. The price has gone a bit slightly (i got on at 16/1 two weeks ago) but she is still my idea of the winner. I see no reason why Rizeena should reverse the form and not really sure how she is 7/2 favourite when LK is 7/1. She has beaten Tapestry and Vorda is a sprinter so wont be winning. I am always wary of the Dubai form so i cant be having Ihtimal and the rest are either not good enough or have already been put in their place by Lucky Kristale and Rizeena. On form then i think Lucky Kristale should win, the only issue is that this is the 1000 Guineas and you can normally throw the form book out the window!!
Im with you QM- all over Ihtimal now the MT is not running- small powerful filly and is a definite stayer where as a lot of the field are proven to stay that far at the moment. She has been campaigned over in Dubai so will be fit and raring to go!!
I'm going to back Frankels half sister Joyeuse in this. Ran a strange sort of race first time out this season but was running on well towards the end. A quirky filly but she's got ability and at around 20/1 represents some real value. Wuld love to see her win for Lady Cecil too
Clive Brittain is usually over confident sometimes about the chances of his horses winning Group races. He did say on Channel 4 Racing he was confident before both Pebbles and Sayyedati won the 1,000 Guineas, and that he feels the same about Rizeena. I can see lots of people laying Rizeena on the exchanges, but I'm not prepared to oppose the horse. However, as Lucky Kristale beat her by 2 lengths in the Cherry Hinton, she represents better value than Rizeena. However, Rizeena is more likely to stay a mile than Lucky Kristale. The Aidan O'Brien trained Tapestry was slightly unlucky in running when finishing 2nd in the Moyglare Stud at the Curragh and has to be seriously considered.
1 point Tapestry 8/1 Lads and others 1 point Bracelet 10/1 Lads and others 1 point Miss France 8/1 Winner 0.5 point Euro Charline 18/1 BetBright 0.25 point Betimes 40/1 Mc Bookie
You make a very interesting point about what Clive Brittain had to say about Rizeena. When interviewed on the piece that Channel 4 did about her prospects in the 1000 Guineas, I noted that he did not say outright that she would win. I backed Sayyedatti all those years ago when she won. I was on her ante post all winter and she got turned over on her seasonal debut in the Nell Gwyn Stakes so she was still good odds on the day of the race (4/1 second favourite), but Clive did not appear as ebullient about Rizeena as he was in May 1993.
As you say, the way that she ran in snatches in the Fred Darling Stakes would be something of a concern but she did stay on at the end suggesting the mile is within her compass. It would take the roof off Newmarket if Lady Cecil could win this one, especially with a filly from Frankel’s family.
This year I shall be taking the scientific approach to picking a bet for the 1000 Guineas; meaning I'll have one eye open while the pin hovers over the page. At the moment it's still hovering over Rizeena, if for no other reason than I like Clive Brittain, he's done me a few favours over the years, and Hughes is in the plate. If I'd paid more attention to an irrational attachment to certain trainers and jockeys, and less to ephemeral concepts like form, I might not have missed Kieran Fallon winning yet another bloody Guineas yesterday. Anyway, that Moyglare Stakes form looks pretty damn strong. And she had speed for a Queen Mary. Maybe they had the engine out of her at two, who knows? It seems silly to ignore the obvious though, and 5/1 is ok. Meanwhile, Sandiva won the Nell Gwyn and is 16/1 with Frankie up, so for that reason, I'm in. For pennies. Edit; just watched Joyeuse in the Fred Darling again. She made up a lot of ground, showed a great burst of speed about 1f out, and was staying on again at the end.
It is very easy to crab the bare 1000 Guineas form immediately. A decent sized blanket would have covered the first half dozen home, usually a sign that it was not a good race; and a number of what were expected to be the chief contenders never got a mention. Surprise favourite Tapestry dropped out very tamely and was eased to end up last. The winner and the runner-up were exactly the same as the Oh So Sharp Stakes at the end of last season, so has either of them really improved to put up their respective performances in the fillies’ Classic? Also, as Andre Fabre excused the dreadful performance by Miss France in the Prix Imprudence because it was slowly run and turned into a sprint that did not suit her, how did she win a slowly run 1000 Guineas? Last year’s winner clocked a time a second faster and the ground was good to firm. I think the best three year old filly over a mile may be running at Longchamp in the Pouliches next Sunday: Lesstalk In Paris. Jean-Claude Rouget’s filly was never entered at Newmarket and I think she just needs to avoid hitting the front too soon plus the usual luck in running.
