Sunday's Meetings York Flat 7 Races 2:30-5:30p.m. Fontwell N/H 6 Races 2:12-4:42p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
Morning, team. Hope everyone well. Just a bit of housekeeping from me. Palladium's yearling half-brother (by Japan) sold on Friday for €200,000. Re Palladium himself he is still in training with the Gosden's (they did, earlier in the week, give him a weekend entry but it failed to turn into an ant, sorry a dec). Palladium is though now quoted, with many bookmakers, for the '26 Champion Hurdle (cor bally blinkin' blimey!!!). 66/1.
There has to be one of the most interesting Arc Trials’ day cards I can remember at Longchamp, discounting the fact that the Group 1 Prix Du Moulin is not an Arc Trial but got added to the card quite a few years ago. A large part of the reason that it is so interesting is because of the involvement of contenders from Ballydoyle. Historically, Aidan O’Brien has had very few runners at this fixture but I think that several of his possible contenders for the Arc have not gone to plan and the only other ‘trial’ race available is the Irish Champion Stakes. First up at 1.33 BST is the Prix Foy for the older horses. There are four foreigners in the nine runner line-up and I can immediately see the usual Arc Trials’ day issue. You can forget about gelding Cheeky Boy for your Arc calculations and the outsider was only third in a Listed race when last seen so won’t be winning today. The other one that can be written off is Mont St Michel who is clearly here as the pacemaker for Aidan O’Brien’s other runner. His presence means that this will not be the usual married man’s gallop and sprint in the straight. The Japanese four year old Byzantine Dream has not been on track since May when he was second over two miles and a furlong in the Tenno Sho at Kyoto. Before that he had won over a mile and seven furlongs (Epic Poet second, Continuous third) in Saudi Arabia under today’s pilot Oisin Murphy; and was fifth last year in the Kikuka Sho (Japanese St Leger) over that trip. So he is difficult to fancy at this shorter trip after such a long layoff and will be here today to try and book a return in October. Old boy Iresine won’t be back for the Arc as a gelding and he won this last year beating four rivals, one of whom was Continuous, but this looks a stronger field and he may be put in his place. Arrow Eagle has not been seen since winning the Grand Prix de Chantilly on Prix Du Jockey Club Sunday. Although the runner-up that day, Sibayan, has franked the form, after three months off it looks like Jean Claude Rouget’s colt is here for a warm up. Ed Walker’s Almaqam is stepping up in trip after being outpaced when well beaten in the York Stakes by seven year old Royal Champion. That leaves me with the three big guns. Francis Henri Graffard’s Map Of Stars last ran in the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis at Munich over ten furlongs where he was second to Saeed bin Suroor’s Tornado Alert; and he now steps up two furlongs. Before that he was fourth in the Prince Of Wales’s Stakes where favourite Los Angeles was only fifth. Last year’s Arc third from Ballydoyle has fluffed his lines since, beaten at odds on in the Group 3 Royal Whip and has the services of the pacemaker today back at Arc course and distance. The fourth from last year’s Arc, Sosie, started the season winning the Prix Ganay and the Prix d’Ispahan over ten furlongs but was last in the farcical Eclipse and has not run since. So there is the quandary for today’s race. Having not run for two months, is Andre Fabre’s four year old just here today to get fit for October or can he beat 2024 Irish Derby winner Los Angeles? The British bookies have Sosie as favourite, which he obviously will be on the PMU; however, I think failure to win will see Los Angeles forfeit his chances of running in the Arc unless other Ballydoyle challengers fail too. The second of the Arc Trials is a race that attracts plenty of fillies and mares chasing black type and not necessarily heading to the Arc, the Prix Vermeille (3.25). It is difficult to know what Ginalyah is doing in the field as her one career win was a Cagnes Sur Mer maiden and her last two races have been in Group 3 races, the most recent of which was a fifth place finish in the Prix Lady O’Reilly. The admirable Survie was seventh in the 2024 Arc and will probably be in the line-up again; however, her second in the Prix Jean Romanet last time may flatter her. Bedtime Story was fifth that day and that form line suggests that Aidan O’Brien’s second string is not going to be collecting here either. It is quite clear that Francis Henri Graffard’s Prix de Diane winner Gezora has been saved with the Arc in mind. Not seen since that victory (Bedtime Story second), she steps up to the Arc trip and I think a good run from her will shorten her Arc odds (25/1) considerably, although the Diane form itself has been devalued. Victory would probably see her become Arc favourite. The British layers odds on favourite today is Oaks runner-up Whirl, with Christophe Soumillon taking over from the sidelined Ryan Moore rather than her Epsom pilot Wayne Lordan. She won a farcical Nassau Stakes after beating Kalpana and Survie in the Pretty Polly at The Curragh; and she looks the form pick. Has Soumillon got the ride today with a view to perhaps keeping it in October with Moore out? However, I am going to stick with my Arc ante-post, last year’s Arc runner-up AVENTURE. Her only defeat this year has been at the hands of Calandagan and the filly that beat her in this and the Arc last year is now in the paddocks. The last of the Arc trials is for the three year olds only, the Prix Niel (4.00). The cynic in me thinks that the two Ballydoyle runners are perhaps in the line-up to give them an idea of how good the other horses are with regard to potential Arc opponents. Wayne Lordan is on Aftermath making his seasonal debut and whether the Justify colt is good enough is impossible to judge on the basis of a maiden win at The Curragh at the third attempt after finishing second in the Champagne Stakes. Bay City Roller won the Champagne Stakes as a juvenile but his best effort this term was when runner-up in the Prix Eugene Adam to Daryz, with Parachutiste last of six. The Graffard colt subsequently won a Listed race at Clairefontaine but there are better options than both of them today. Joseph O’Brien’s Criterium de Saint Cloud winner Tennessee Stud was third in The Derby and fourth in the Irish Derby, which ought to give him a good chance although he has not been seen since the end of June. Aidan O’Brien’s first string Swagman has not been seen since winning the Sandown Classic Trial in April and it is anybody’s guess whether he is good enough to win here having missed all the Classics. Andre Fabre runs two. The well related Nitoi took his chance in the Prix Du Jockey Club but was never a factor and was then beaten in the Listed Prix Nureyev at Deauville three weeks ago. There has to be a question mark about whether he is good enough. The one that they all have to beat looks to be Jean Claude Rouget’s Leffard, second last in the Prix Du Jockey Club from a bad draw but winner of the Group 1 Grand Prix de Paris over course and distance. He burst several Arc bubbles that day but that form looks suspicious as he came from another parish to mow down the Ballydoyle favourite inside the distance. Godolphin colt CUALIFICAR was second in the Prix Du Jockey Club and was then third in the Prix Guillaume d’Ornano, is following a well trodden Fabre path to the Arc and will not be beaten for fitness today with William Buick aboard.
With twelve set to line up for the Prix Du Moulin (2.50), the tactical plans of several of the principal contenders present something of a dilemma. I think that we can definitely conclude that Serengeti is a pacemaker for Aidan O’Brien, who provides two of the runners that might be considered to be win prospects. This is actually a very open race, with the spread of the official ratings not that large; and looking at the European mile races so far this year there appears to be no outstanding candidate for champion miler except the three year old Field Of Gold. So quite a few should have chances depending on how the race is run. Marhaba Ya Sanafi won the Poulains two years ago and was third in the Prix Du Jockey Club; and has been a standing dish in this sort of race ever since but only winning a Group 3 and a Listed race. In two Group 1 races contested in the last two seasons he has only beaten one horse home and it will probably be the same today. Japanese horse Go To First was fifth in the Prix Jacques le Marois on his first European run, more than two lengths behind third Dancing Gemini so it is hard to make a case for that changing much today. Dancing Gemini had previously been eighth in the Queen Anne (Rosallion second, Lead Artist seventh, Quddwah last) and second in the Lockinge (Lead Artist won, Rosallion third on seasonal bow) so the form looks a real mess, almost like the sprinters taking it in turns to win. Lead Artist has not been seen since that disappointing effort in the Queen Anne and, presumably, with a pacemaker in the race Quddwah will not be trying to make the running today having bounced back from the Queen Anne with victory in the Group 3 Prix Messidor at Chantilly. Group 3 Diomed Stakes winner Persica tried to make the running last time in the Celebration Mile before finishing last and looks out of his depth today. Alcantor also looks out of his depth having never won above Group 3 level and having been behind Quddwah in the Prix Messidor and fourth behind Dancing Gemini in a Group 2 prior to that. Richard Hannon’s Rosallion is clearly the best of the older horses but has not won since last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes and was switched to the new seven furlong Group 1 at the last minute and failed to win that. He has become something of a nearly horse and should have won the Sussex Stakes after being given too much to do (following the wrong rival). The Lion In Winter was the Ballydoyle wonder horse over the winter but has not lived up to the billing and has not troubled the judge in four 2025 starts, including finishing last in the Prix Jacques le Marois. It would be a major surprise if he suddenly came good today. Francis Henri Graffard runs recent Group 3 winner Sahlan but he would need to improve markedly on that effort and the three year old was only ninth in the Poulains. The Poulains was won by HENRI MATISSE, who subsequently chased home Field Of Gold in the St James’s Palace before reversing running with that rival in the Sussex Stakes where he was given far too much to do and finished third. I think he should reverse running with Rosallion although he is 2lb worse off on weight for age.
I am guessing that there was not a lot of interest in today’s racing. I suspect that Aidan O’Brien will not be having as many runners next year on Arc Trials day... Los Angeles is surely no longer an Arc contender after his defeat in the Prix Foy. Like most people, I did not expect the Japanese stayer to win it but I think very few people collected on the Byzantine Dream – Sosie forecast. Was that good enough by Sosie that he will be picked by Maxime Guyon on Arc Sunday? If the Prix Foy was bad for Ballydoyle, it got worse in the Prix Vermeille as odds on favourite Whirl ended up effectively being a pacemaker as last year’s runner-up Aventure collected very easily followed home by the Prix de Diane winner Gezora. That may leave Guyon with an Arc day dilemma: does he ride the filly or the colt. Surely it has to be the filly. The Ballydoyle involvement in the Prix Niel did not include the favourite but none of their three contenders were involved in the finish as the Andre Fabre trained Caulificar won what looked a very ordinary race as a small blanket would have covered the whole field except last home Aftermath. The Prix Du Moulin was no better for O’Brien as the Francis Henri Graffard trained Sahlan just pipped Rosallion with The Lion In Winter third and Henri Matisse disappointing in fifth.
Strange as it was the most interesting card for some time. Especially as the Arc thread has had over 5,000 views and Sunday was all about the Arc
