Saturday's Meetings Kempton Park N/H 7 Races 12:20-3:45p.m. Fairyhouse N/H 7 Races 12:25-3:50p.m. Wetherby N/H 7 Races 12:30-3:55p.m. Warwick N/H 7 Races 12:40-4:05p.m. Lingfield A/W 6 Races 12:50-3:40p.m. Newcastle(E) A/W 8 Races 3:30-7:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Racing Post Sporting Life Good Luck
Blaklion does go, of the morrow, in the ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ at Warwick (3.35). Certainly ain’t backing him (unless any bookie chappie is prepared to offer nice odds on him finishing 6th – nudge, nudge, wink, wink, say no more…) but will be Fascinating, with a capital ‘F’, to see how he fares back over hurdles for the first time in almost 4 years. Good luck all.
I am not sure where the Handicapper got 152 as a hurdle rating for Blaklion from. He seemed stuck on 145 back when he was hurdling and there is nothing to suggest to me that he should be 7 lbs better now. The Racing Post preview for tomorrow's race states that Blaklion is "A smart stayer on his day who returns to Hurdles off a handy mark", where is the evidence for that statement? It's not as if he was once rated higher over hurdles and now comes back better in. He's 7 lbs higher than he was ever rated over hurdles by the official handicapper and the Racing Post had his highest ever rating over Hurdles as 147, so what makes them think he is well in off 152? Blaklion was 6YO when he last ran over hurdles and was given 134 by the Racing Post that day. He is now 10YO and they feel he can be well in from a mark 18 lbs higher than he last performed to on their ratings over hurdles? I think Blaklion will find it tough conceding 10 lbs and upwards to the field. I have gone for First Assignment and expect him to be tough to beat. He's been on the up and although a bit disappointing to some people when beaten a 11/10 Fav last time, he has been given a break since that 3rd placed effort. The second has won a Novice Chase easily since then and most importantly the winner Paisley Park went on to win the Grade 1 Long Walk Hurdle later. I think when punters make the link to Paisley Park, money may come for First Assignment. I couldn't touch Blaklion at 6/1 myself. 3.35 Warwick First Assignment 10/3 looks decent value to me. Maybe the Racing Post previewer will be correct but I just cannot follow his logic at all when considering the actual figures. It seems a leap of faith to reckon Blaklion is well in on a mark he has not run to over hurdles.
2.10 Fairy-Three Stars looks overpriced at 20/1 and might sneak a place at a nice price for in form yard.
In the Lanzarote Kloud Gate looks short enough. He landed very weak races the last twice and this is a tougher assignment. For a value option I went with Paul Nicholls' Darling Maltaix. No great shakes initially, he seems to have been on an upward curve since wind surgery and he came through travelling really easily upped to this trip last time and scored well. Up 12 lbs but he could have more to offer at the trip. It was softer last time admittedly but the stable are in form and would not have sent him here if they felt he was badly handicapped. The Jockey can claim 5 lbs again here, after being limited to 3 lbs last time. I felt Darling Maltaix was overlooked at 8/1 and some firms go 5 places 1/5th odds a place at 15/2. That seems a reasonable E/W prospect.
Top Notch to beat Charbel and Black Corton. I think he’s a class above this field and his return was very eyecatching. Lanzarote looks poor again this year, a host of horses who’ve been winning egg and spoon races at low level tracks. The favourite is one of those and whilst bigger prices I’d say Mellow Ben looks interesting with the 6 places on offer with Will Hill. He ran well at the track last time out and at Cheltenham before that. He needs to jump better than when an eye catching second last time but can do so, and has tactical speed too. The classic chase is interesting as I have three I like, Duel At Dawn, Ibis Du Rheu and the jolly Step Back. However I am majorly concerned by the 90 day lay off for the latter and think the other two are likely to be primed for the race so I’ve backed them at 7s each
Just focusing on the Classic Chase at Warwick today and done the following: Duel at Dawn 7/1 each way. Has a low weight, finished runner up at the track last season to Ms Parfois no less. That s just one piece of decent form, should handle the ground and clearly ok at the track. Not sure what the plan is for this fellow but often this race is seen as a prep for the national and he wouldn't get in the race off his current mark so a convincing win in this would help. I get the impression trainer rates horse although I do not know what the ambitions are with him. However I am on! I also like Crosspark 20/1 e.w 4 places as an outsider in this. Was 4th in it last year but pulled to hard. Harry Skelton has won 4 times on this horse and horse has only won 5 times in its life! Trainer looks to be in good form so I have had a small each way saver on him. Good luck all.
My arrows landed on these (comp entry plus one) Warwick 1-50 OK Corral 2-25 Tidal Flow 3-00 Duel At Dawn NAP 3=35 First Assignment Kempton 2-05 Top Notch 2-40 Kloud Gate 3-15 Glen Rocco
Each way plays for me today. 2.40 Kempton Lord Napier 3.00 Warwick Cogry 3.35 Warwick Holly Bush Henry Have a good weekend fellas. Good luck
Ruby to give the old man a winner in the 2.10 Fairyhouse in the shape of Kildorrery 2.50 Wetherby Thosedaysaregone to re-coop loses from the last time around these shores Good luck all
i see nichols screaming that his darling maltaix been ' murdered ' by the handicapper ! he was obviously expecting a more lenient mark , complains that a 12 lb rise is excessive rather than 7 lb which he thought would have been fair , so a half ton horse has to carry 5 lb more , best have a good crap before the race , that's 6lb gone !!
Am very surprised Charbel is not favourite and touching odds-on in this heat. I may need to call the Nurse but in this contest I really think Kim ‘Couldn’t train Ivy (lovely girl, incidentally) to grow up a wall’ Bailey could defeat the Lieutenant.
Re the Lieutenant, incidentally, very disappointing to see that Birchdale is a non-runner in Warwick's Grade 2.
I see that you can get odds on horse finishing in the ‘top 4’ in the ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ but not on who actually finishes 6th. As that is the aim with so many horses who run in these contests (like Blaklion, today, I’m sure) I think bookie chappies are missing a trick in not betting on who will finish 6th. Or is there legislation preventing them doing this??? Anyone know. Coole Cody, last month, ‘won’ a ‘Pertemps Qualifier’ by finishing 6th and got a 5 lbs rating reduction. If Blaklion achieves similar today he might be of some interest, should he head to the Final, off something like 147. But then again I guess that for him the Final would be more a GN ‘prep’ rather than the main event. Anyway I’ll stop waffling and wish everyone well re today’s action…
Nash sends two to wetherby today, City limits 12 30 33/1 and little lady lu 8/1 in the 3 55. Both should go close
I see Charles Shrewdy Byrnes sends over three raiders to Wetherby and he aint going over for the sea air.Form looks dodgy on all three runners but that doesn't normally matter when Byrnes sends one over the pond as this man is an absolute rogue, a clever one at that as well!Ive gone for his runner in 2.50 Thosedaysaregone 7/2 which looks to have the best chance.
