I still think it will be closer to 35/36 points to stay up. On that basis, I'd say QPR, if they play like yesterday, do have a real chance of staying up. They need five wins and a draw or four wins and four draws from their remaining ten. That sounds like a big ask until you look at their remaining fixtures - home games against Sunderland and Wigan are very winnable, and home games against Stoke and Newcastle towards the end are likely to become winnable when these teams are likely to have nothing to play for. Likewise, away games against Villa and Reading are very winnable, as well as an opportunity to take points from other relegation candidates. They'll have a good chance of picking up points in their derby match against Fulham, and in five games' time Everton may be out of the race for Europe which will give a chance for a point. Same goes for home to Arsenal. The other relegation candidates have tougher run-ins It is unlikely, but not unimaginable.
One important thing in our favour is that TWO teams of the bottom four have to get ahead of us. To get to 36 points, Wigan need 3 wins 3 draws and 4 defeats, Villa need 3 wins 3 draws and 5 defeats, Reading need 3-4-3 and QPR need 4-4-2. Any one of these looks highly possible, but for two to get beyond 36 seems unlikely, especially as these guys are all playing each other. And even if two of these did reach 36, Southampton would also have to get at least 2 wins and 3 draws. So 37, or one win and two draws, should be enough. My worry is that Wigan always get out of trouble, QPR have an easier run-in and may now be geared up for the fight, and I still rate Lambert so I'm sure Villa won't just lie down and die. My other worry is that Southampton are a good side going forward and if we just sit back again on Saturday they'll beat us.
Remember though we have ten games left.Over the course of the last quarter of the season we will have a couple of games where we get the run of the ball and another couple where individual players show touches of brilliance as they did against Everton.If we end up with 2:2:6 from those games it will see us to 40 points which will be comfortable.Quite probably though we will do better than that.
I agree with your logic, CT as I have throughout this post. I also can't see any of the bottom teams taking 15 or 16 points from the last 10 games as some have claimed on here. Southampton will be coming forward on Saturday, but that will also leave them vulnerable at the back. The next three games could see City through to safety with at least 4 or 5 points. Even if the bottom teams do win 2 out of three, they wouldn't gain significant ground on us and there will then be only 7 matches left. Time starts running out very quickly then.
Just four points gained by the seven teams in 14th -20th positions this week.Three for 'arry and one for Martin,The overall result of that is that QPR's odds improve to 1/3 on for the drop whilst Saints shorten to 3/1 against.Apart from those movements there is no real change. Reading are back as favourites at 1/4 on,
I had a horrible feeling Villa were going to nick something there, phew. I think it means that even if Southampton lose they won't slip into the drop zone right away, so hopefully they'll be a little less desperate.
Cruyff'sTurn's argument shows how much the bottom teams would have to raise their game over the last 10 matches to overtake City. 8 points from the last 10 matches to reach 40 points isn't a great ask and, IMO, none of the bottom four teams will get anywhere near 40 points.
Sixteen points from ten games,whilst obviously not impossible,is a very big ask for teams like Villa,Wigan and Reading (Who need 17) It represents five wins and a draw an average points scoring rate that has been achieved only by Everton in sixth place and the teams above. That is why I stick by my early season analysis of 37 points for survival,or maybe the team on 36 and the better GD. That is also why I feel 'arry still has a mountain to climb,because QPR have to do it just to get to 36.Some crucial games this weekend:Norwich v Saints, QPR v Sunderland and Reading v Villa.
completely agree cruyff as i have done all season on this topic. can anyone seriously see us failing to pick up at least five points from ten games? even on our worst run of the season, we still managed 7 points from ten games!
With arguably an easier set of fixtures too. Only the trip to the Emirates and our traditional duffing up at Citeh should really concern us (and we stole a point from the Gunners last year so could do again) with the other games capable of yielding at least a point and hopefully three in maybe 3 of them.
we certainly have a far easier set of fixtures remaining than we did at this stage last season! not that any of the games will be pushovers, but i'd rather be facing the teams at the bottom this stage of the year than the teams at the top. it leaves every matter in our own hands. i said at the turn of the year i felt we'd get 40 points and i'll stick by that. we might out-do that slightly...
the run in this year is certainly much easier than last season. i expect us to finish on about 47 points.
