Relegation battle, what clubs will consider winnable games in the tight bottom half of the table. (w) = targeted as a winnable game, not predicting an actual win. So the final points are the maximum points that teams can realistically expect to finish on. Eg <40 means likely to finish on less than 40 points Fulham 21 pts Fulham v Newcastle Man City v Fulham Fulham v Everton Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Tottenham v Fulham Fulham v Hull City (w) Stoke City v Fulham (w) Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 36< Sunderland 24 pts Man City v Sunderland Sunderland v West Brom (w) Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Liverpool v Sunderland Sunderland v West Ham (w) Tottenham v Sunderland Sunderland v Everton Chelsea v Sunderland Sunderland v Cardiff City (w) Man U v Sunderland Sunderland v Swansea (w) (W) 18 pts = 42< Cardiff 25 pts Everton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Liverpool West Brom v. Cardiff City (w) Cardiff City v. Crystal Palace(w) Southampton v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Stoke City (w) Sunderland v. Cardiff City (w) Newcastle United v. Cardiff City Cardiff City v. Chelsea (W) 12 pts = 37< West Brom 25 pts Sunderland v West Brom (w) Swansea City v West Brom (w) Hull City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Cardiff City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) West Brom v Tottenham Man City v West Brom West Brom v West Ham (w) Arsenal v West Brom West Brom v Stoke City (w) (W) 21 pts = 46< Crystal Palace 27 pts Everton v Crystal Palace Sunderland v Crystal Palace (w) Newcastle v Crystal Palace Crystal Palace v Chelsea Cardiff City v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) West Ham v Crystal Palace (w) Crystal Palace v Man City Crystal Palace v Liverpool Fulham v Crystal Palace (w) (W) 15 pts = 42< Norwich City 29 pts Southampton v Norwich City Norwich City v Sunderland (w) Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v West Brom (w) Fulham v Norwich City (w) Norwich City v Liverpool Man United v Norwich City Chelsea v Norwich City Norwich City v Arsenal (W) 12 pts = 41< Swansea City 29 pts Swansea City v West Brom (w) Everton v Swansea City Arsenal v Swansea City Swansea City v Norwich City (w) Hull City v Swansea City (w) Swansea City v Chelsea Newcastle v Swansea City Swansea City v Aston Villa (w) Swansea City v Southampton Sunderland v Swansea City (w) (W) 15 pts = 44< Hull 30 pts Hull v Man City Hull v West Brom (w) West Ham v Hull (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Hull v Swansea (w) Man U v Hull Hull v Arsenal Fulham V Hull (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Hull v Everton (W) 18 pts = 48< Stoke 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) Aston Villa v Stoke (w) Stoke v Hull (w) Chelsea V Stoke Stoke v Newcastle Cardiff v Stoke (w) Stoke v Tottenham Stoke v Fulham (w) West Brom v Stoke (w) (W) 18 pts = 49< Aston Villa 31 pts Aston Villa v Chelsea Aston Villa v Stoke Man U v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Fulham (w) Crystal Palace v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Southampton Swansea v Aston Villa (w) Aston Villa v Hull (w) Tottenham v Aston Villa (W) 15 pts = 46< West Ham 31 pts Stoke v West Ham (w) West Ham v Man U West Ham v Hull (w) Sunderland v West Ham (w) West Ham v Liverpool Arsenal v West Ham West Ham v Crystal Palace ( w) West Brom v West Ham (w) West Ham v Tottenham Man C v West Ham (W) 12 pts = 43< Table based on winnable games 10) Stoke 11) Hull 12) Aston Villa 13) West Brom 14) Swansea 15) West Ham 16) Crystal Palace 17) Sunderland 18) Norwich (R) 19) Cardiff (R) 20) Fulham (R) What's your thoughts? Looks likely to me apart from Norwich and West Brom.
Considering you've got us to beat Fulham and Fulham to beat us in the same game my initial thoughts are that you have perhaps wasted quite a bit of time. Massively optimistic for everyone as well, Baggies have won four games all season and you expect them to win seven of their last ten!!
Sorry Swan, this does not work at all for me. I appreciate that your basis is win or nothing but you are so over the top on the totals that it makes no sense. And you have made the error of using logic that we will win at Fulham. We never get anything against Fulham. Ever!.
(W) = winnable not win. My methodology is based on the maximum points realistically available. Sorry if it wasn't clear enough.
Are you saying that playing us (swansea) away isn't considered a winnable game for you? Or would you consider paying any top 4 team home or away a winnable game.
That hasn't applied to us this season where we've picked up the majority of points away. I'm not saying it's definite it's trying to assess the task ahead of each team in the 10 team relegation battle!
Whilst I get that the concept is comparing the theoretical maxima of all the teams fighting to avoid relegation your method as has been pointed out depends on games where both team consider a gam to be winnable this skews the results in your league table, the majority of the games that you have highlighted as winnable are against teams that are also considered to be part of the mini-league, this has mean that the teams who play the most games where both side are winnable rise to the top despite the fact that these points won't be available, statistically all you've shown teams who play the teams around them have more winnable games and therefore can get more points. Its not really a great revelation, basically your raking how hard you think each teams run in is. Using it to create a league table however is pointless as the points don't equate to each other your final totals are artificially too high as several times you offer 6 points for a games where as 2 point in total is far more probable in games teams are desperate not to lose.
You'd have been better to stick your neck out. & predict what you thought he results would be based on current form & then putting up a table?
I'm not creating a water tight science experiment I just wanted a open debate about how tight the league is and who has the most difficult run of games. The table is not what I think is final but not far off. I think it's pointless being pedantic, I only wanted to debate with other fans of teams in a similar position to us (Swansea) and didn't want to just put up my predictions because I wanted it to be more open for discussion. I think Fulham are dead cert for relegation, Cardiff, Sunderland, and Norwich are living too dangerously to the bottom with really hard fixtures ahead. Swansea and palace must pull their socks up to avoid a real relegation scrap.
I think Newcastle at home is definitely considered winnable for most. Southampton, Spurs also beatable.
I do get that you put some time and effort into this, and were just trying to stimulate some debate as to what will transpire. I think what it brought home to me was how few games there are to come. Come away with nothing at the weekend, and if we believe we'll get nothing from the 4 game run in, then it all looks decidedly dodgy. Are we really likely to get 12 points from the other games? I doubt it. I do think Fulham and Cardiff have had it, and no way will WBA get to 46 points. Hopefully we'll finish above all those, but who knows.
