This is more or less a follow up of my thread 'just over the half way mark' After today's result at Doncaster we have achieved 51 points after 27 games. So one point out of our last possible six, against Donny & Wigan. Our aim has to be to get 70 points minimum (give or take) but that guarantee's nothing, other than opportunity, but to guarantee play-off based on the stats over the last 16 years the maximum required has been 80 points. So for the lower points we need another 19 for the upper mark another 29. We are 11 points clear of 7th place Sheffield United but they have a game in hand. So we will assume they win that and it gives us an 8 point margin. Just goes to show how last minute winners (Sheffield United) and throwing away two goal leads (Gills) can change the stats in a instance - 4 points! If this current set of stats were maintained we would be guaranteed playoffs before going into the final Burton and Wall matches. However, it's current form that counts and the Gills come out good over the last six games. Now ive not verified these stats but it suggests we are currently on 2.17 points per game. Well I'm sure you can do the sums, over the remaining 19 games that would give us 41 points. but over the last 10 games it drops to 1.70, 32 points and still a lottery game. Sadly i'm just not sure that 90 points this season is going to be enough or achievable for us in the auto rankings. But at least it makes play-offs look well within our grasp.
I have just done some statistical break downs myself Brb. By my reckoning, since the 2000-2001 season (inclusive) these have been the average points required: 6th place - 72 points 2nd place - 85 points 1st place - 88 points. Now looking at our current form these would be the number of points we obtained: Last 8 games, 14 points, 1.75 PPG - 84 points at the end of the season Last 6 games, 13 points, 2.2 PPG, - 93 points at the end of the season Last 10 games, 17 points, 1.7 PPG - 83 points at the end of the season. Make of that what you will, but based on current form it would suggest that we should definitely get into the play - offs (and probably in a high position) and then getting 2nd place could really be luck of the draw, in 5 of the last 15 seasons 83 points has been enough to finish in 2nd place.
Exactly - you have come up with the same thoughts as mine but more in depth. Hence why i have been saying recently play-offs is looking very good. Autos is going to depend on a team effort, a lot of luck and many equations. Pretty much the reason i'm dismissing autos for now and sticking with the more realistic possibility.
Yeah, and I would be very happy to achieve a play - off place. An automatic place would be brilliant but a play - off place would constitute a successful season and if we did go up then it would be a very successful season.
