Looking at Ivy Port: currently quoted at 4/1 carrying a 6lb penalty won last time out current fav is Peter's Friend (currently quoted at 7/2), won last time out and not carrying a penalty
SOUTHWELL 3.00 HUNTING GROUND SOUTHWELL 4.00 IVY PORT Mark has edited his post to remove the selections as he has had "a change of heart"
Hi, The selections stand it was just getting a bit fed up with some of the comments and felt like a couple of members should be known as "new members prevention officers".
change of heart or mind ?--hunting ground will start odds on surely--Ivy Port 3/1 ish --i can see what the objective is--find the winning fav- as we all know 2/3rds of them are beaten --but how can you apply a rigid formula to something that by its nature is flexible--i suppose the pick just before the off --but surely most on here are selecting hours/day/s before a race--we all know that last minute gamble/change of mind issue--good luck anyways...
You just have to look at the amount of new posters in the other threads to see that clearly isn't true. If you post a theory/system on a forum you surely have to expect to be critiqued?
5.00 Meydan Trade Storm @ 9/1 Should have too much class for this field if fully tuned up. Third behind the best miler in the world(Wise Dan)at Woodbine & a fast finishing fourth in the Dubai Duty Free. Last three runs at Meydan: 30Mar13 Mey 9Gd G1 1840K 9-0 4/14 (2¾L Sajjhaa 8-9) 4/1F Jamie Spencer 116 02Mar13 Mey 8Gd G2 92K 9-2 1/8 (1½L Musir 9-2) 5/2 Jamie Spencer 112 14Feb13 Mey 9Gd Hc 64K 8-9 1/12 (3¾L Anaerobio 8-6) 9/1 Jamie Spencer 104
This seems very reasonable. Finding a system is something that has been attempted by hundreds of people throughout the years - if Mark wants to have a crack then why not? If someone came on and said 'I make a point of backing Paul Nicholls bumper runners blind' then that would be far more foolish than this but I doubt they'd get a similar reaction. It's not to my personal tastes but as Blue says, it's just a way of trying to find winners and best of luck to Mark - it's not like we're all in competition here. Trying to make something work and trying to sell subscriptions are very different things.
The starting price is created by looking at the prevailing odds at the time the race goes off. Therefore it is created after the off. You are betting on the price just before the off. That isn't the starting price, its the price with the bookmaker of your choice. Slightly different.
the problem with all systems is their inability to allow for unseen factors -last night at kempton Artemis was flagged up the night before, i checked its form--rock solid and hence i reckoned it was a good bet--horse was backed during the day into clear fav--however went off at 4/1 --a gamble on the fav was lost--Artemis won like an odds on shot .....the system mark uses would have dismissed that winner ?
Without wishing to defend the "system" RB, I'm sure some would escape the system but maybe (I have no idea), if the system was extended to embrace horses in the same situation as Artemis, it could bring it more losers than winners. Just a thought.
Why have the selections been taken down?!? I don’t think anyone has given Mark a hard time. They, myself included, have simply asked questions and made enquiries about something ‘new’. Does look at the moment though as if it will be a ‘no bet’ day for the system as Hunting Ground has shortened into 4/5 and Ivy Port is on the drift and unlikely to now start favourite (or even if he does is unlikely to be 0.75 points clear of Peter’s Friend the now well backed ‘jolly’. Tomorrow’s a new day though and maybe the system will be attracted to those bumpers for jumpers!
Ron, on that point (and I agree with your note above) would you remove the price as a barrier and accept that horses can/do win when they are fancied or unfancied by the market? To include the market seems to suggest that horses win more when they are well supported by the masses?
Nass, I'm sure we all accept that horses can, and do, win whether fancied or unfancied by the market. As regards removing the price barrier, it isn't my system to change. As I understand it, Mark has a method of selecting horses in certain races but only backs them if the market supports his view. There is some logic in that although if a selection is quoted odds on and drifts to odds against, meeting all other criteria above, that logic wouldn't apply.
Mark, I can see that your additional selection was added to your original post a 14.41 and according to Sporting Life the race was "Off time: 14:45:46" (ie posted before the off). However, for the benefit of the forum, could you post amendments in a new post rather than edit the original post. I can see and compare every amendment, as can Oddy, but other forum members can't. The original post shows last edited 05.07pm so, to anyone viewing after your latest edit, your third selection could appear to be after timing; even though you have classed it as a no bet.
Amended criteria for selections 1. Mark determines his provisional selections (using his formulae) and posts before the off 2. The following conditions are applied before placing a 1 point win bet. The selection must be (based on SP before the off as quoted by ********): clear favourite by at least 0.75 point not odds on not greater than 4/1 or 2nd fav and within 0.25 of the clear favourite No bet if joint favs or co favs ********) To be added
