Mafia 4

Post 2 of 3 (please read all 3)

EDIT: Reposted later on...

 

Post 3 of 3 (please read all 3)

EDIT: Reposted later on...

 

Milk, I'm busy trying to work out our odds of definitely winning if the 2 original masons reveal themselves, but NOT the journo or the third mason.

Will post it when I'm done and see if you and anyone else can poke any holes in my calculations...

 

Morning guys.

Wow TB, you are crunching them numbers!

So whats the tactic for tonight then?

 

Well played tennis lol, well thought out posts and some good points to chew on.

Unfortunately milk has already said he didn't get recruited to the Freemasons so that's that idea out the window. Which also means lucaaas didn't have any info on the Freemasons when he claimed to know they had chosen to recruit milk, so we can assume the Freemasons are still innocent for now, unless they have recruited a random who's role we don't know.

As far as the mafia trying to kill the cop or vigilante, why would they? Surely they will target someone who doesn't have a chance to kill them?

I agree with whoever said we should be trying to find the assassin today. Presumably we can't try and bump him off as he would have a 50/50 chance of killing our vigilante? So we need to make sure the possible candidates for the mafia assassin are in a coin flip today (unless we can narrow it down to the actual person in which case we lynch the bastard!)

 

And I can see my name is likely to be thrown into the ring so I'll say now I've got no problems being in the coin flip today. We are close enough to win the game now and provided I'm on the winning side I don't mind dying too much

As long as I don't die and then the game keeps going for days! Then I'll be unhappy!

But it looks like if we nail one of them tonight it's just a matter of closing out the game so I don't mind being used as part of a tactic.

Danilo and valley are my two main suspicions at the moment so ideally at least one of them is under pressure too!

 

Haha, I studied stats and financial mathematics, you'd never guess it

 

The Assassin should definitely be the primary target, as the hacker is pretty useless at this point, or at least nowhere near as useful as an assassin.
I think we are going to have to try sniff him out.
Thing is we have 2 blocks of two innocents. TB and Milk, and the 2 freemasons. If Milk wasn't recruited into the masons, then the masons are ******ed, because he is clearly the one that can link those two blocks together to make a block of 4 innocents (if loosely connected thru Milk), giving the 4 of them a strong voting point.

I will kick the day off with a vote for the guy I have been suspecting since Day 1. Valley

 

OK guys, I'm going to be in a long meeting from 10am your time to 1pm your time, so will miss the article. Let's see what it says and then decide.

I've been looking at our chances of winning by revealing some or all of our roles, however a big part of this is reliant on everyone being active. If one of the inactive players is the journo or one of the original 2 masons we're in serious trouble. So while I'm away maybe someone could try round up who will be online and who won't be? No point risking it if quite a few are not online, we'll just be giving the mafia info.

 

Where you based...?

 

Until I read what tennis has said I withdraw my vote.

 

OK guys I've crunched some numbers in terms of our various options, the good news is that we are by far the favourites to win however no one route is a 100% certain win for us. So I won't be posting my calcs, because some courses of action give the mafia a better chance of winning than others.

I looked at either A. we only reveal the freemasons, or B. reveal the freemasons and the journo, and then within those options I've looked what we do dependent on what roles the Mafia try to claim they are.

In my opinion our best chance of winning is if we reveal all the roles, which is the drum that Milk has been banging. It's not 100% guaranteed but it gives us a very good chance.

I realise I could have made a mistake in my calcs and I wish I could I could share it with you so that you can question the logic used, but unfortunately it would be of more benefit to the mafia than to us. I have given it some thought and I think I'm correct, and at the risk of being labelled a complete t**t I'll mention that I have a Masters degree in Financial Maths, majoring in Statistics, so hopefully that counters my t**ttishness with some degree of trust in my calculations. I don't mean to imply you need a degree in stats to work out these possibilities, just common logic, but I figured it's worth a mention in case it causes a bit more trust in these unseen calculations.

 

South Africa, GMT+2...

 

Oh, one more thing. Milk, can you vigilante someone tonight? If so we can co-ordinate it with the lynch vote and the arrest...

EDIT: Don't forget that it is very likely that the hacker can hack again, since they only have two members left, and he last hacked two days ago...

So regard the article with that in mind!

 

Sorry I know I've written a ton of stuff, being 2 hrs ahead of you has its advantages!

I wrote those 3 seperate posts which I think are worth debating, so I'm going to repost them here in one go so that it can be discussed or viewed without scrolling between many pages. Apologies if you think I'm just spamming you, but things get lost quickly between all the pages. (especially if you have me posting non-stop!)

Part 1:

Some thoughts to consider:

We don't know the mechanics of how the mafia activities work, but let's go through what we know.

Night 1:
Almost certainly the Mafia hacker was used.
We know the Mafia hacked the first journo article, as it said Lucaaas was innocent and we know the Mafia Recruiter has not done anything yet (we would have seen the number of Mafia increase).
Certainly the Recruiter and Assassin were not used.
Perhaps the Heavy was to be used, but was lynched before he could lean on someone.

So either they could use 2 activities the first night, or only one until one of their guys got killed. We know they used two activities the second night...

My theory on Night 1:
Using the hacker first makes perfect sense. Not only can you portray one of your own as innocent, but I'm assuming you immediately learn what the reporter found out in her original article (as you view the article and then change it). So you can see if that person is a good one to recruit or assassinate. So you keep your assassin and recruiter for day 2, and use your hacker and use your heavy to ensure none of your mates get lynched.
Save your strong abilities for a worthy target once you know more, rather than a random guess.
So A. the original article outed one of them (I would guess Lucaaas due to the wording of the second article), so they covered that up. Or B. they found out the role of an innocent, so just kept it to themselves as they're not a threat. Or C. they found out Mito was the detective, so they decided to assassinate him the next night. I think C is the most likely.
Once the journo is outed (not yet) we can ask them for the original content of any hacked articles.


Night 2:
Certainly the assassin was used to kill Mito the detective.
Almost certainly the hacker wasn't used as he was used in night 1, even if he can replenish his hacking skills it's very unlikely to replenish so soon.
Certainly the recruiter (Lucaas) tried to recruit the trigger happy Milk, leading to the accusations etc.

So they used 2 of their 3 activities on night 2.

My theory on Night 2:
Pretty straight forward, I'm guessing the paper said that Milk was innocent to not give away his role to the mafia, as it was before he came clean.


Night 3:
Recruiter gets lynched, so no activity by him.
Assassin kills Billy, who is innocent, so at least the mafia are just killing randoms and did not know anything for certain.
No idea if hacker can get to work. So we must treat the next article as suspicious, mafia only have two members so we must assume they can use the hacking at the very least every second night imo.

Part 2:

OK so let's look at the Freemasons next.

As the mafia recruiter has not been in action, they KNOW that their original 2 members are innocent. So they know of 4 innocents (the cop TB and vigilante Milk).

I'm assuming they've recruited a third member by now, would be silly if they waited too long.

Let's look at their options for the 3rd member:

Best Case: they recruit Milk the vigilante. Please tell me this is the case!
They would know Milk was innocent.
Then Milk knows 4 innocents as well, and we don't need to reveal the 2 masons, he can direct our voting.
If you guys have not recruited anyone yet, please recruit Milk! Milk, if you have been recruited, please tell us! Would help with our voting strategy, and won't give any info away.

2nd best case: they recruit the jouro. This would be a good one too...
They could prove the journo was who they said they were, by making the journo confirm who they were going to investigate before the paper comes out, for 2 days in a row.
This way they know the journalist is innocent, as he hasn't been recruited by mafia, and they can help the journo decide who to investigate as the journo knows 5 innocents (cop, vigilante, 2 masons and himself).

Neutral case: they recruit a regular townie.
No way to find out if the townie is mafia or not, so not that useful.
Can discuss voting but would need to be careful as townie could be mafia.

Worst case: they recruit a mafia person.
BAD BAD BAD. They would not be able to prove that he is mafia, but he would tell mafia exactly who they are.
Mafia would not act on that info, but would know who they are voting for, and more importantly know that those 2 people aren't the journalist who they must be targeting.

Part 3:

I'm sure that the mafia are trying desperately to find the journo and kill him, but in case they're getting desperate and decide to go for me or Milk, I want Milk to co-ordinate the voting if I'm taken out.

It's not a very big risk for us though as they only have a 25% chance of killing me, and a 75% chance of being outed. Reasoning below:

Two coin flips, one for each of us.
There are 4 possiblities, each with a 25% chance of it happening.

25% chance: I hit, they hit.
Outcome: both die, but assassin gets outed so they're down to one member and all they can do is hack.
Tactic: Everyone reveals their roles, you'll have milk and the 2 original masons as innocents, don't trust the 3rd mason though.
journo can reveal who they are investigating the next day, so they prove who they are and as soon as it's hacked you'll know and should be able to figure out who it is.
Even if you ignore the journo, a block of 3 definite innocents can't be beaten by just 1 mafia. Town wins.

25% chance: I hit, they miss.
Outcome: Assassin dies, I live. Similar situation to above but with way better odds as I'm an additional known innocent, and I can arrest.
Tactic: Same as above, should be wrapped up very easily. Town wins.

25% chance: I miss, they hit.
Outcome: I die, assassin survives and remains anonymous. This is the only good outcome for the mafia, so at 25% chance I'm happy with our odds.
Tactic: It's going to be a slog, but hopefully you get lucky with the journo and at least the journo has an extra day alive, assuming they don't get hacked.
It will be close, could still go either way.

25% chance: I miss, they miss.
Outcome: Both survive, but I will know the assassin's identity, similar to when Lucaaas the recruiter tried to recruit Milk. Both survived but he knew who they were.
Tactic: We lynch the assassin, and then eventually find the hacker. Town wins.

 

Hell's bells TB, you've taken this game to a whole new level of geek!

My only problem with everyone revealing their roles is that the Mafia will then just assassinate the journo and we will lose our source of info. Then they will assassinate the masons and we will lose our known innocents. Then it is essentially playing the laws of averages to find the Mafia before the innocents.

I understand that the law of averages is well in our favour on this one, but I'd still rather play the game properly and try to find the Mafia by watching what they do and putting suspicious characters under pressure. Better than just spending the rest of the game having TB and Milk pick people to lynch at random whilst the rest of us do **** all!

Also, if the Mafia do have the ability to switch powers then we would be utterly ****ed...

 

yeaah its not fair thats my job! if anyone's to geek the place out mito is supposed to.

 

Not necessarily - Milk found out Lucaaas' identity because he approached him to recruit him, which triggered the shoot out. The assassin might just shoot at you from the shadows, and you shoot back at his outline without being able to identify him.

I would assume the assassin has a rifle, whilst the other Mafioso have pistols.

 

DAY 4 UPDATE

Your newspaper arrives. Sturridge has returned to full training. Some celebrity gossip. The following article catches your eye:


The Knosuj Times would like to issue a retraction over a series of investigations it has done. The first night of the investigation, Lucaaas was tailed and nothing suspicious was noted. The second night's paper was the subject of a cyber-terrorist attack in which sensitive files were compromised and the article published did not reflect the original findings of the journalist. This hack included the sentence: "Mummy has been found to be, and have always been, just a regular town folk."

THIS WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE ORIGINAL ARTICLE.

Upon reviewing the log files for the computer, we found a trail of dirty websites dedicated to John Terry's legs leading us to discover (during our second investigation) that the Mafia Hacker is in fact Bodanki.

We call for caution when dealing with this individual. A witch hunt against him will allow the recruiter or assassin to survive another night and possibly kill or convert again. For this reason we ask that you do NOT ask for the Journalist to be revealed until one more night passes.

The problem on our island grows worse. Given that our journalist found NOTHING strange with Lucaaas the first night, there are multiple possibilities:

1. The Mafia have a hidden power allowing them to fool the journalist. Under what circumstances this is available to them is unknown.
2. The Mafia have a hidden power allowing them to fool everyone the first night (possibly putting Mummy's role under question. Why else would he be exonerated in the hacked paper - unless to throw suspicion on him when the hack was discovered?).
3. The Mafia have a hidden power allowing them to recruit new members without the town knowing. This would explain Lucaaas being innocent the first night and yet mafia later.

These are grave times for our island.

Finally, the third night found that Swarbs, although suffering from an inferiority complex from supporting the second best club in England, also displayed no suspicious behaviour. HOWEVER, given that the Mafia have shown to have some hidden powers this does not in any way exonerate him. It simply gives him a chance to put forth a theory without being immediately voted against.

The journalist of our paper will reveal themselves only if they are up for execution by explaining what the following series of numbers means, which can be known only to the journalist themselves:

1:0
2:1
1:0
1:0
3:2
0:1
0:2
1:0
0:1
1:0
1:2
2:0
1:1
0:2



Nozzer has been released from custody.

There are currently 2 mafia and 7 town people.

 

Hells bells, if Utd are now the second best in England behind Chavski then these really are grave times for the island! Not to mention for City and Arsenal