How the Championship is predicted to finish after Nottingham Forest beat Leeds United and Bristol City lose Where the Robins will finish... Leeds United have been predicted to win the Championship by a single point, despite suffering a defeat to Nottingham Forest last night. The Whites' patchy form continued at the City Ground, and they are now level on points with third-placed Fulham in the race for the Championship top two. Indeed, Marcelo Bielsa's side are not even guaranteed of a play-off place, with Bristol City just five points behind in seventh. please log in to view this image However, Nate Silver's Five Thirty Eight website, which creates data models to predict sport outcomes, still backs Leeds for the title. Their model says Bielsa's side have a 31 per cent chance of winning the title and a 69 per cent probability to go up, with a 40 per cent likelihood of making the play-offs. Brentford are tipped to finish second, beating West Brom to the promotion spot on goal difference alone - although this could well change with the Baggies set to play today. The Robins are tipped to finish seventh, just one point off the play-offs, although a low goal difference effectively means they would need to pick up two extra points to finish sixth. City have a 29 per cent chance of making the play-offs and an eight per cent probability of going up. The other teams in the play-offs are Fulham, Forest and Preston North End. At the other end of the table, Wigan Athletic, Barnsley and Luton Town are all tipped to go down. How it works Five Thirty Eight predict the outcome for the season using SPI ratings, which the website says are their best estimate of a team's overall strength. Each team is given an attacking rating that represents the number of goals it is expected to score against an average team, and a defensive rating to represent the amount of goals it would concede. Those ratings produce an overall SPI rating, which represents the percentage of points it would be expected to take on average from a game. Those ratings are then compared to an opposition's rating to simulate the outcome of a match. From that, it is possible to simulate the outcome of a whole season. https://www.bristolpost.co.uk/sport...w-championship-predicted-finish-after-3827094
Every time this comes out it just seems to follow recent form. Surprising Leeds are top but these predictions are usually total rubbish.
Would disagree with the above although they have the same [number ] of teams 1-7 When the algorithm includes data that is based on who plays who and where it will be different wait and see … these tables come out once in a while and we see them for 3 or 4 games then they stop! remember last seasons! saw it for about 10 games then no more! there is 42 points [ left in February ] to be shared by the top 12! should these games result in draws then it will only add 28 to the table! [ that's 14 fixtures left from start of Feb … when teams within 9 or less points were taken into calculations, top 12 ] CARDIFF has since become a contender but I set it out on 1st so has to run its course for February!
