I've had a look at the Timeform ratings: Ortensia 136 Bated Breath 135 Wizz Kid 135 Sole Power 134 Little Bridge 132 Joy And Fun 132 Hamish McGonagall 132 Tangerine Trees 132 Margot Did 's rating is ? I then looked at just the highest ratings of every horse achieved on Good to Soft going within the last 12 months or so I was quite surprised to find that Margot Did came out top with 135 Margot Did 135 Tangerine Trees 132 Hamish McGonagall 131 Masamah 131 Prohibit 131 Bated Breath 129+ Wizz Kid 128 Ortensia 128 I've ignored a 134? achieved by Ortensia in April 2010 when last of 14 To me that makes it even more of a lottery but interestingly Ortensia doesn't look such a good bet as I thought Could make for an interesting short list Race card
I think Night carnation should be backed at 50-1 EW as it is just simply too big. It's never a race to get too involved with as there are many unknown quantities, questions about going and finally they are sprinters so most have all been beaten by each other at one point or another. The other reason is that the bookies have taken no chance on the market leaders and so for me it's about the each-way value that has slipped through and i feel Night Carnation may well be one of those.
Of the longshots MONSIEUR JOE at 50-1 could run a very big race. He was only a couple of lengths behind Ortensia at Meydan and reopposes a couple of pouds better off. Buick is on board and gets the best out of him. Possibly his best effort was on his only run on good to soft so conditions may just be ideal tomorrow. Huge price and not without a chance!
Just a little word of warning. I took the going from the Timeform ratings and I notice these don't always tie up with the going reported by RP.
Stick has the right idea, this race is far to competitive to be taking single figure odds about a horse. There all much of a muchness to me. If there is one that stands out it will be Ortensia, though im not sure the ground will suit her*
I can't help but feel that an Oz sprinter gets a bit better wrap than they really deserve. Sure the sprinting is strong out here and we've had a pretty good record in the last ten years when it comes to UK G1 five and six furlong racing, but this should not blind the punter to what it takes to win one of these races. Ortensia is a quality mare, but her past record here is far from top notch. The one bright light for her here, is the manner in which she's fired in the hands of her new trainer. Like others though, I don't believe that she represents value at the moment. Hope she wins with a leg in the air though.
Tangerine Trees for me. He is a big horse who needed his first run of the season (not sure why people backed him that day) and they like to get him ready for his big days. He is drawn in stall 9 so should be able to track to wherever the best ground is and I expect him to make a brave effort of this. He has the form in the book, winning the Abbaye last year and like many I think the sprinting ranks are full of horses who are much of a muchness, and as such the 20/1 on offer about Tangerine Trees is very interesting.
